Jake Peavy for J.J. Hardy?

(Photo by Victor Decolongon/Getty Images)

As mentioned in the news today, rumors surfaced about a possible deal between the Brewers and the Padres. Milwaukee's package would include shortstop J.J. Hardy heading to the San Diego's ace, starting pitcher Jake Peavy.

Let’s take some of the complication out of evaluating this hypothetical deal and just look at a straight-up Hardy-for-Peavy swap.

First, let’s take a look at this deal from a win-now, 2009-or-bust perspective. Peavy’s line the last three years is tremendous.

Jake Peavy, 2006-2008

2006—202.1 IP, 11-14, 4.09 ERA, 9.56 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 3.51 FIP, 4.0 WAR
2007—223.1 IP, 19-6, 2.54 ERA, 9.67 K/9, 2.74 BB/9, 2.84 FIP, 6.2 WAR
2008—173.2 IP, 10-11, 2.85 ERA, 8.60 K/9, 3.06 BB/9 3.60 FIP, 2.8 WAR

Peavy has consistently shown the ability to get batters out, posting high strikeout rates and a very good strikeout-to-walk ratio.

It’s important to keep in mind that every number here (except for WAR) is not park-adjusted for the pitcher-friendly confines of San Diego's PETCO park. Regardless though, Peavy’s numbers are still impressive.

The thing that worries me is the sharp jump in walks in 2008 combined with a full strikeout less per nine innings. Perhaps these are outliers, but as a prospective buyer, it is cause for concern.

Let’s take a look at some projections:

Jake Peavy, 2009

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