What challenge does Notre Dame face tonight in beating the BCS Championship Game odds against the Alabama Crimson Tide?
The Irish are battling a trend that has seen SEC schools win all six BCS title games and cover the point spread in all six games too.
So even with a 9.5-point spread at most online sportsbooks tracked by OddsShark.com, many of the bigger bettors are putting their money behind Alabama.
That situation has not held true at all shops, however, especially ones that cater to a more recreational clientele.
“Money keeps pouring in on Notre Dame even getting 10 points,” said Kevin Bradley, sportsbook manager at Bovada, who said nearly two thirds of the betting action was on the Irish.
While the temptation for a sportsbook in such a case is to move the line to encourage more bets on the other team, he said in an interview today that he is resisting the temptation as of Monday morning.
“It will be tough to move off that number as I expect some sharp bettors are waiting to see if will go to 9.5 and then slam a bunch of big money behind Alabama. As it stands right now, the book is a big Bama fan and I cannot complain about needing a 10-point favorite,” Bradley said.
Point Spread: Alabama -9.5 to -10 (as of Monday morning)
Total: 40.5 to 41 (both teams allowed just 10 points per game this season)
Consensus Betting: 61.7 percent of bets on Notre Dame (according to Odds Shark Consensus)
Betting Volume: 65 percent of money on Notre Dame (according to Bovada) *Note: other sportsbooks have the spread at -9.5 and saw far more large wagers on Alabama than on the Irish
Offense edge: Alabama 38.5 PPG – 26.8 PPG
Defense edge: Notre Dame 10.7 PPG – 10.3 PPG
Differential: Alabama 27.8 PPG - 16.4 PPG
10 of past 11 Notre Dame games went UNDER the total
Alabama just 1-4 ATS past 5 games overall
Notre Dame 2-8 ATS past 10 bowl games
Alabama 3-0 SU and ATS past three bowl games
Favorite is 4-1 ATS past 5 BCS title games
SEC has won & covered all 6 BCS title games
BCS Title Game Pick
Alabama stumbled a bit late against quality foes (Georgia, Texas A&M), but with a chance to make history and having faced a tougher strength of schedule, we see the Tide rolling here over the Irish. Take Bama at -9.5. (courtesy of PickShark.com)