Mike Rossi's Best Bet NBA Pick: Friday March 27, 2009
The Clippers combine to score 201 points on the road as opposed to only 198.9 points at home.
The Spurs combine to score 190.5 points at home and only 188.8 points on the road.
These are the kind of overs that I love—when the road team scores more points on the road than at home.
There are only a few of these teams in the NBA, so an over this good is a rarity.
ESPN.com reports "for the first time in six weeks, the Spurs expect to have Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili in the lineup together Friday night when they host the lowly Los Angeles Clippers." I expect these three to put up some big numbers offensively tonight.
Moreover, the Clippers are 41-30 this season overs vs. unders. They are 34-26 overs vs. unders as an underdog, and 22-14 overs vs. unders on the road. Notice that eight of the 11 games they are over .500 overall are on the road. This is because they put up more points on the road than at home.
Though the Spurs are under .500 overs vs. unders at 33-38, they are 17-19 over vs. unders at home. Two of the five games they are under .500 on the season are at home, which is better than their three out of five ratio on the road.
The Spurs have covered the 191 number only two out of their last five games. However, two of these games were against Boston and Houston, two good defensive teams. The Clippers are far from a good defensive team.
The Clippers have covered the number 191 three out of their past five games, including once against Detroit, a good defensive team that generally has low unders. One of the games they didn't cover was also against Boston, a good defensive team.
In recent games, the Spurs have had numbers around 191 against Dallas (188), at Dallas (188), against the Lakers (194), and against Minnesota (189). Though the Spurs only covered two of these games (at Dallas and against the Lakers), Dallas does score more at home than on the road and Minnesota has been in a scoring slump recently.
This is the game I will be putting my money on tonight. You should make the same educated decision. Good luck.
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