Why UConn Will Cut Down the Nets in Detroit

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Why UConn Will Cut Down the Nets in Detroit
(Photo by Michael Heiman/Getty Images)
I apologize for this post coming about two months late, but for some reason the injury to Jerome Dyson scared me for a little bit.
Well, after watching the Huskies since the injury, I am no longer scared to make the bold prediction of the tournament: The Connecticut Huskies will win their next four games and hoist the National Championship trophy in Detroit, MI.
I’ve said this from day one and am finally ready to put it down on paper and let everyone know why.
I’m not just some biased Big East fan or an ACC hater. I simply believe that UConn has all the traits of a national champ and they also fall under nine statistical categories that have accurately determined the team standing at the end of the tourney.

For the first six categories, 17 of the last 19 national champs have fallen under ALL SIX prerequisites.

 

1. Play in a power conference

Obviously the Huskies fall under this category, and not only do they play in the Big East, but it’s the same league that brought a record three teams as one seeds to the tournament and has a record five teams in the Sweet 16.

If Notre Dame and Georgetown had met expectations, this league could have been in the argument for best conference of all time.

Still, UConn has faced the best of the best this year and despite two losses to Pittsburgh, the Huskies beat Louisville on the road by 17 and have wins over Syracuse and Marquette and Villanova.

Playing in the Big East has prepped them for any challenges they may face against other teams. This category also takes Gonzaga, Memphis, and Xavier out of the running for winning it all.

 

2. Make the tournament the prior year

Once again, UConn meets the requirement as they made the tournament as a five seed last year. Yes, they lost to San Diego State in the first round, but they were a much younger and much less mature team then.

I remember watching them at an ESPN Zone last year and they just didn’t seem to have the swagger that they sport this year. It is obvious they are much more comfortable this year, having more experience and all.

 

3. Have a coach with at least five visits to the NCAA Tournament

Hmm, will 20 visits do? Jim Calhoun, who picked up his 800th win this year, has been to the big dance 20 times and has won the whole thing twice.  He has been in just about every big game situation that you can think of.

His record of 801-339 is unbelievable and, heck, he took Northeastern to five dances! Aside from maybe the NFL, I can’t think of another sport where a head coach is as valuable, and Calhoun does such a great job at it. 

Not only does he bring in talent, but he uses it to the best of his ability and it turn creates national champions.  Definitely book UConn in on this category.

 

4. Average 77 or more points per game in the regular season

“Defense wins championships” might be the cliche, but when you get down to the Elite Eight and Final Four, everyone can play defense. What wins you the championship is your ability to score and the Huskies can do that.

Known for their tight defense, UConn has scored 103 and 92 points in each of their games and shot 52 percent and 58 percent from the field in their victories. 

While the competition was not very deep, they have easily fared the best out of all the 1 seeds and unlike the other top seeds, they haven’t had a close game.  They average 78.5 points on the season and while this is barely over the clip, that’s all you need to be.

 

5. Win your games by a +10 margin in the regular season

This is the part where defense comes into play and the Huskies pass the test again, outscoring their opponents by 13.5 points. 

Defensively, the Huskies have arguably the best defender in Hasheem Thabeet and great on the ball defenders in A.J. Price and the unheralded Jeff Adrien. 

UConn played a great regular season, only being within ten points 14 times, with four of those being losses. While still having the scoring margin, UConn is great at closing out games when they are close (save the Big East Tournament).

 

6. Be seeded 1-4 in the NCAA Tournament

Clearly UConn has it here and, unlike last year, the one seed has given them some confidence that all one seeds should have. 

Sure, having it is like having a bulls-eye on the front of your team’s uniform as everyone wants to take you down, but it is definitely an intimidation factor and gives the Huskies a little extra swagger in their step.

The next three categories are based off of my own research that I wrote on a few weeks ago. I’ll leave the link after the intro, but basically I went back and looked at the last 10 tournament winners (opposed to the last 19 in categories 1-6) and found individual stats that make winners. Here they are.

 

7. A point guard that, when his points and assists are combined, total at least 17, and a free throw percentage better than 70 percent. If free throw percentage is under 70 percent, points + assists must equal at least 20.

A.J. Price fits the bill in this category as his points and assists add up to 17.9 and he just gets over the free throw mark. But more importantly than stats, Price is “that point guard” that you want to have in the tournament. 

Being a senior is huge (just ask Marquette) for team spirit and having a sense of direction on the court.

Price is putting up Dwyane Wade-like numbers in the tournament thus far, posting 23.5 points, 5.5 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals. Once again, the competition has been weak but Price has dominated.

He will be the key on offense and has done an excellent job up to this point. Once again, UConn puts in another category.

 

8. A forward/center that, when his points and rebounds are combined, total at least 17, and has a field goal percentage better than 52 percent.

An easy one here for the Huskies as they actually have two players that fall under this range in Hasheem Thabeet and Jeff Adrien. Thabeet quietly puts up 14 points a game while shooting 65 percent from the field.

Not so quiet are his 13 rebounds and 4.4 blocks per game that absolutely anchor the UConn defense and make it what it is. The non-stat that everyone talks about is his ability to alter shots and make the paint a place no one wants to come into when playing the Huskies. 

His counterpart in the front court is Jeff Adrien who, if he played on most other teams in the nation, would be appreciated so much more. He averages 14 points and ten rebounds per game and shoots 60 percent from the field and works harder in the paint than anybody I have seen play this year. 

The front court will be so important for UConn the rest of the way in the tournament, both on offense drawing defenders, and on defense in not allowing points in the paint.

 

9. Have a starting lineup with an average of at least a junior, OR have two of the best three players on the team be underclassmen.

The last qualification for a tournament champion is also the last one that UConn falls under. They are tied with North Carolina, Villanova, and Pittsburgh for the oldest starting lineup and this experience is something that will carry them.

They are not relying on young, skilled players (other than Kemba Walker), but rather experience and chemistry that they built up from time playing with each other. Also, the determination that seniors Jeff Adrien and A.J. Price will have with the “win or go home” mentality will push this team to greatness.

 

Breaking It All Down

When I look at this Connecticut team and how they have progressed all year, even when they lost Dyson, I see a team that can go all the way on skill, hustle, smarts, and coaching. Sure, the top dogs are still out there and this is one of the best Sweet 16’s that the tournament has ever seen. 

However, with  Price leading the way along with excellent contributions from Craig Austrie and Kemba Walker in Dyson’s absence, this team is starting to click. Adrien and Thabeet will clearly be key in their success, and when it’s all said and done, all these things will equate to a national championship in Connecticut.

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