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Odds of Every Philadelphia Phillies Player Being Enshrined in the Hall of Fame

Greg PintoCorrespondent IDecember 19, 2012

Odds of Every Philadelphia Phillies Player Being Enshrined in the Hall of Fame

1 of 26

    Voting for the Hall of Fame is about to get a lot more interesting this year. It's a ballot that writers have been counting down to for years, stuffed with names like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens and all of the moral dilemmas that they present. 

    Regardless of who actually gets the nod, this vote got me to thinking—how many of the current players on the Philadelphia Phillies roster have a shot at making the Hall of Fame when their playing days have come to an end? 

    So, how will we decide those odds? Well, let's be honest here—the Hall of Fame voting has become about numbers and accolades, and each player's chance hinges on the success he has had in his career. Now, the fun part about this slideshow is that for a lot of players, we are talking about future projections as well.

    With that in mind, here is each player currently on the Phillies' roster and his odds at being enshrined in Cooperstown in the future.

Carlos Ruiz

2 of 26

    Odds: 1 percent

    All-Star Appearances: One

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    The 2013 Hall of Fame class is easily the most interesting one to date, in my opinion. Now, baseball writers set precedent for the future. Can you still get into Cooperstown even if the rules are broken? Will guys like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, who had great numbers regardless, be the exception? 

    That's an interesting debate, and while Carlos Ruiz's chances of winding up in the Hall were already nearly nonexistent, a 25-game suspension for a positive amphetamine test (Adderall) has likely sealed that fate.


Ryan Howard

3 of 26

    Odds: 55 percent

    All-Star Appearances: Three

    Major Awards: Rookie of the Year (2005), Most Valuable Player (2006), Silver Slugger (2006), NLCS MVP (2009)

    Stats

    The case for Ryan Howard in the Hall of Fame is probably a lot closer than you would believe at first thought. He has a lot of the accolades that voters love (because honestly, they make a good story). He is a former Rookie of the Year and MVP. He is an All-Star. He was even the fastest man in history to 250 home runs. 

    The last few seasons of his career have been a consistent decline and his statistics are certainly not up to par with some of the names in the Hall of Fame. 

    But let's look at it this way: Howard is 32 years old and has 300 home runs. If he can stay healthy and add to that total before all is said and done, a Ryan Howard with 500 home runs makes an interesting argument. 

Chase Utley

4 of 26

    Odds: 35 percent

    All-Star Appearances: Five

    Major Awards: Silver Slugger x 4 (2006-09)

    Stats

    Since his debut in 2003, Chase Utley has been one of the best second basemen in all of baseball, and while injuries have slowed him down quite a bit recently, that's the kind of fact that voters remember when a player's name pops up on the ballot. 

    Right now, I don't think that Utley has enough of a body of work to be enshrined. His numbers are very good, but not great. He's never won a major award and has not done anything incredibly noteworthy. 

    However, if he proves that he can be healthy for a few more seasons and adds to that body of work, he may receive some stronger consideration. 

Jimmy Rollins

5 of 26

    Odds: 45-50 percent

    All-Star Appearances: Three

    Major Awards: Most Valuable Player (2007), Gold Glove x 4 (2007-09, 2012), Silver Slugger (2007)

    Stats

    Jimmy Rollins' case for the Hall of Fame is interesting insofar as that he has some of the accolades that voters like to see. He won the National League's MVP in 2007 after predicting that the Phillies would win the National League East. 

    Rollins has been one of the best defensive shortstops in the game since his debut in 2000 and an integral part of the Phillies' dominant run atop their division in the latter half of the 2000s. 

    With that having been said, Rollins is another player that just doesn't have numbers worthy of the "Hall of Fame," which should be reserved for the game's elite. While Rollins has been a very, very good shortstop, he has not been Hall of Fame worthy. 

    Alan Trammell's candidacy is probably a telltale sign for Rollins (though, Rollins does have an MVP Award). 

Michael Young

6 of 26

    Odds: 40 percent

    All-Star Appearances: Seven

    Major Awards: Gold Glove (2008)

    Stats

    Michael Young hasn't even stepped on to a field as a member of the Phillies just yet, but already has one of the better shots at the Hall of Fame, and while it pains me to say it, his case has more to do with the story than the numbers. 

    The numbers, of course, are very solid. He is a career .301 hitter with 177 home runs. While they are good, however, they are not Hall of Fame worthy. 

    But don't for a moment think that voters will not look back on Young's career and see a Hall of Fame worthy character. Even if the last few years of his career with the Texas Rangers were surrounded by trade requests, this is a man who helped bring the Rangers back to relevancy. 

    It won't get him in the Hall of Fame, but someone will vote for Young.

Darin Ruf

7 of 26

    Odds: 0 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    I don't want to handicap Darin Ruf's MLB career before it even begins, but unless something goes drastically well for him in spring training, he is set to open his age 27 season as a platoon player—at most.

    Now, can he build a Hall of Fame kind of career in a short amount of time? Crazier things have happened, but Ruf doesn't have that kind of potential. The Phillies will be happy with him as long as he continues to destroy left-handed pitching and will quietly hope that he can blossom into a late blooming left fielder.

Ben Revere

8 of 26

    Odds: 0 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    The Hall of Fame isn't kind to players like Ben Revere because he has very little power. He is going to make a living collecting singles and stealing bases, and while that is perfectly fine, it is incredibly difficult to build a Hall of Fame-caliber career that way. 

    While it is yet to be seen where Charlie Manuel places him in the batting order, the Phillies will be happy with Revere as long as he continues to do the things that have made him a desirable player early in his career—play elite defense, find ways on base and make things happen with speed. 


Domonic Brown

9 of 26

    Odds: 5 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    Well, it's kind of difficult to build a Hall of Fame career when the team that drafted and developed you into a number one prospect won't even give you the opportunity to play a full season at the MLB level, and that is all I have to say about that. 

    Okay, just kidding. 

    On a serious note, if the Phillies would actually give Domonic Brown a full season's worth of at-bats, they could be pleasantly surprised at the results. A fully healthy Brown has the potential to hit for a solid average and could show 15-20 home run power. 

    Is he ever going to be in the Hall of Fame? Probably not, but I see no reason that Brown can't develop into an All-Star caliber left fielder. He needs consistent at-bats.

Roy Halladay

10 of 26

    Odds: 75 percent

    All-Star Appearances: Eight

    Major Awards: Cy Young x 2 (2003, 2010)

    Stats

    The man with the best shot at the Hall of Fame currently on the Phillies' roster is none other than Roy Halladay, in case that wasn't an obvious fact when you first opened this list. 

    At 35 years old, Halladay has already built a strong resume for the Hall of Fame. He has won two Cy Young Awards and is one of just a handful of pitchers to have done so in both the American League (with the Toronto Blue Jays) and in the National League (with the Phillies). 

    Halladay tossed a perfect game against the Florida Marlins and is one of just two men to throw a postseason no-hitter. 

    He has the period of "sustained dominance" that voters like to see. From 2002-12, he won less than 16 games just three times. However, it may be that win total that eventually hampers his case. While they shouldn't be in the least bit, wins are something that voters care about. 

    Halladay will have the opportunity to add to his 199 career wins, but will he be healthy enough over the next few seasons to make a dramatic impact on his Hall of Fame case? Only time will tell.

Cliff Lee

11 of 26

    Odds: 35 percent

    All-Star Appearances: Three

    Major Awards: Cy Young (2008)

    Stats

    Cliff Lee's case for the Hall of Fame is an interesting one. At a glance, you would think that he would receive strong consideration. He is a former Cy Young winner in a year in which he dominated the American League en route to a 22-win seasons. 

    But when you look at some of the things that voters often like to see, Lee just doesn't have them. He doesn't have the high win total (125 career wins). He doesn't have a period of sustained dominance. He's been to the World Series twice and has come up empty twice. 

    At 34 years old, Lee still has a lot of good baseball left in him. He is the kind of left-handed starter that can pitch for a long time. The real question is whether or not he can pitch long enough at a high enough level to make voters forget about that shoddy win total, and I believe the answer is no (not that I agree). 

Cole Hamels

12 of 26

    Odds: 50 percent

    All-Star Appearances: Three

    Major Awards: NLCS MVP (2008), World Series MVP (2008)

    Stats

    I like Cole Hamels' odds at the Hall of Fame quite a bit—probably more than I should—and it all comes down to whether or not you believe that we have yet to see the best of the Phillies' lefty, and I don't think we have. 

    Of course, there is already a lot to like about Hamels. He had that terrific postseason run in 2008 that ended with a parade down Broad Street and has amassed 91 career wins before the age of 29. He has also won at least 10 games in every season since 2007. 

    Hamels, who has averaged 15 wins per season with the Phillies, will have until after the 2019 season to build his Hall of Fame resume if his new contract reaches its full extent. I like his chances better than Cliff Lee, but less than Roy Halladay.

Kyle Kendrick

13 of 26

    Odds: 0 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    Kyle Kendrick's emergence as a viable starting rotation candidate once again in the second half of last season gives the Phillies something to look forward to in 2013, and they'll need him to pitch in that same capacity if they want to contend next year. 

    With that being said, don't expect Kendrick to go making any All-Star teams or winning major awards. He is a quality, back of the rotation starter.

John Lannan

14 of 26

    Odds: 0 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    Trading Vance Worley was a calculated risk for the Phillies. They knew that he could net them a center fielder with some upside (eventually Ben Revere), but would they be able to fill his spot in the starting rotation? 

    That task now belongs to John Lannan. After spending most of the 2012 season in Triple-A, the right-handed pitcher returned to the MLB when the Washington Nationals shut down Stephen Strasburg, and Lannan impressed with a strong run.

Erik Kratz

15 of 26

    Odds: 0 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    Erik Kratz is obviously not a Hall of Fame-caliber catcher, but there is a lot to like about the Phillies' backstop. 

    With their catching depth torn to shreds in 2012, Kratz was called up by the Phillies during the season and was eventually thrown into a starting role where he did more than just hold down the proverbial fort. 

    Kratz showed that he could hit for some power and provide quality defense, and the Phils are going to need that out of him again in 2013 with Carlos Ruiz suspended for the season's first 25 games.

John Mayberry Jr.

16 of 26

    Odds: 0 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    When the Phillies first acquired John Mayberry Jr. from the Texas Rangers, they thought that they were on to something. He was a "five-tool prospect" whom the Rangers had soured on a swap of Greg Golson was a good idea. 

    Now, it looks as though Mayberry is all out of chances. After several seasons of trying to groom him into an everyday player, the emergence of Darin Ruf could spell the end of Mayberry's major playing time and at worst, supplant him as the right-handed power bat off of the bench.

Laynce Nix

17 of 26

    Odds: 0 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    It should go without saying that the 2012 season was a disappointing one for both Laynce Nix and the Phillies. 

    Nix, who signed a two-year deal with the club last offseason, missed most of the season with a severe calf strain and the Phillies sorely lacked a source of left-handed power off of the bench. Both sides hope to mend those ailments in 2013, and they'll need each other to do so. 

    With that being said, I don't think it is an overstatement to call Nix's Hall of Fame campaign a lost cause.


Freddy Galvis

18 of 26

    Odds: 1 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    In my personal opinion, Freddy Galvis is one of the more intriguing players on the Phillies roster. We all knew that he was going to be a sensational defender, but can he hit enough to play everyday? 

    A quick glance at his 2012 statistics may be met with a resounding "no," but Galvis showed some flashes of being—at least—a slightly below average offensive player, which, along with his defense, could make for a valuable middle infielder. 

    Now, are we talking about "Hal of Fame" valuable? No, but Galvis can be an eye-opening player with his defensive abilities, and that makes him an interesting guy to keep an eye on.

Kevin Frandsen

19 of 26

    Odds: 0 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    Kevin Frandsen helped the Phillies out quite a bit last season after they learned that both Placido Polanco and Freddy Galvis would hit the disabled list and that Ty Wigginton was nothing short of a butcher at third base. 

    Frandsen stepped in to play some quality defense and provide a quality at-bat at the plate that quickly made him a favorite among Phillies fans. 

    He's never going to be in the Hall of Fame, but Frandsen could certainly be a quality bench player for the Phillies in 2013. 


Mike Stutes

20 of 26

    Odds: 0 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    The Hall of Fame is a long term goal and Mike Stutes should obviously be much more focused on the near future. 

    After missing nearly the entire 2012 season following exploratory shoulder surgery, Stutes will have his work cut out for him in spring training. Middle relief is one of this club's deepest areas and there is no guarantee that Stutes will make the cut. 

     


Jeremy Horst

21 of 26

    Odds: 0 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    Jeremy Horst was one of the Phillies' most pleasant surprises from the 2012 season. Acquired from the Cincinnati Reds last offseason for Wilson Valdez, Horst made the most of his opportunity and was one of the club's most reliable relievers by season's end. 

    In 2013, he'll have some competition if he wants to stick with the club. In guys like Raul Valdes and Jake Diekman, the Phillies have some left-handed relievers with upside. 

    However, Horst won over a few of the right people last year and I personally believe he has the inside track to a bullpen job.


Justin De Fratus

22 of 26

    Odds: 0 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    Justin De Fratus has plenty of upside and a bright future as a dominant reliever. He made his debut at the end of the 2011 season as a September call-up and many believed he had an inside track for a bullpen spot in 2012. 

    However, De Fratus missed a large portion of the season with an arm injury and did not return to the MLB until September. 

    I'm sure that all parties involved (De Fratus, the Phillies and the fans) are looking forward to seeing what De Fratus can do as a full time reliever for this club.

Phillippe Aumont

23 of 26

    Odds: 0 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    When is the last time that the Phillies debuted a reliever with the same kind of "pure stuff" and upside as Phillippe Aumont? I'm struggling to come up with a solid comparison and fans got a taste as to why at the end of the 2012 season. 

    After a minor league career that could be effectively be described a "roller coaster ride," Aumont has found a home in the bullpen. He has a fastball with incredible velocity and movement. He has a knee-buckling slurve and a jaw dropping splitter. 

    As a fan of baseball, I'm looking forward to a full season of Phillippe Aumont.


Antonio Bastardo

24 of 26

    Odds: 0 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    If the Phillies' bullpen is firing on all cylinders next season, it has the potential to be one of the best in baseball. That means that guys are going to have to be healthy and pitching up to their potential. One of the biggest names to keep an eye on is Antonio Bastardo.

    After a miserable first half of the season, Bastardo really turned things up a notch following the All-Star break. His mechanics were better, he was locating his fastball better and the results were just, in general, better. 

    He finished the season with a SO/9 mark of 14. The Phillies should have high expectations for him once again in 2013.


Mike Adams

25 of 26

    Odds: 0 percent

    All-Star Appearances: None

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    The Phillies may not be getting a Hall of Fame pitcher in Mike Adams, but they are receiving one of the best setup men in recent memory to fill a role that hampered this club in a big way during the 2012 season. 

    Adams, who is recovering from surgery to repair a condition called Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, which causes numbness in the arm and fingertips, is expected to be ready for spring training, where he will join a youthful, talented Phillies bullpen. 

    In a lot of ways, he is the perfect fit for this club. He helps bring experience to an inexperienced group and serves as the eighth inning bridge to Jonathan Papelbon. This was a good signing by Ruben Amaro Jr. and company, providing he is healthy.

Jonathan Papelbon

26 of 26

    Odds: 40 percent

    All-Star Appearances: Five

    Major Awards: None

    Stats

    Jonathan Papelbon is one of the more interesting cases on this list. At age 32, he has already saved 257 games. According to Baseball Reference, the two most similar pitchers to Papelbon through age 32 are Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman—a pair of surefire Hall of Famers. 

    Then again, those two are cut from a different cloth, each with more than 600 saves to their names. On the other hand, you have a guy like Lee Smith, owner of 478 career saves and a 3.03 ERA, struggling to get in.

    Papelbon, who has averaged 37 saves per season, would not reach that 478 mark until age 37. 

    So, while Papelbon is certainly an interesting discussion, I can't imagine a scenario where he pitches long enough, effectively enough, to get into the Hall of Fame, seeing as how Lee Smith has struggled.

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