Editor's note: I realize this preview is out of my usual order, but the A's open the season in less than 12 hours, so I had to get it done before then.
Manager: Bob Geren
Arrivals: OF Emil Brown, P Joey Devine, SP Dana Eveland, RP Keith Foulke, SP Gio Gonzalez, OF Todd Linden, RP Kirk Saarloos, SP Greg Smith, OF Ryan Sweeney, DH Mike Sweeney
Departures: SP Dan Haren, OF Mark Kotsay, C Adam Melhuse, DH Mike Piazza*, IF Marco Scutaro, OF Shannon Stewart, OF Nick Swisher
Offseason grade: C
Starting rotation
With Dan Haren gone to Arizona, Joe Blanton takes over as the ace of this Oakland staff after going 14-10 with a 3.95 ERA last year for the A's.
Don't be surprised, however, if Blanton is traded before July 31. There were rumors flying around over the winter that the A's were shopping Blanton, with Cincinnati being a top suitor.
There almost certainly will be a contending team looking for a starting pitcher come June or July, so it might be a pretty good bet that Billy Beane will pull the trigger on a Blanton-for-prospects trade.
Rich Harden appears to be healthy–for now. Harden has always been one of the best pitchers in the American League, but he's only started 30 games once in his five-year career, that being in 2004. An injury-free Harden would give the A's a dominant starter, but that's just not something that they can count on.
Before the All-Star game last year, Chad Gaudin was a nice little surprise for Oakland, going 8-3 with a 2.88 ERA in 18 starts before the Midsummer Classic. However, in 16 starts after the All-Star game, Gaudin went 3-10 with a 6.30 ERA.
There's a good chance that Gaudin's massive dropoff was due to his innings load. Gaudin threw 199 innings in 2007, but had never thrown more than 64 innings or started more than five games in a season before last year.
While he's been in the majors since 2003, Gaudin is just 25. If his arm can hold up through a whole season, he could be a pretty solid starter for Oakland this year. He's expected to return from hip surgery and make his season debut on April 12th in Cleveland.
It seems like an oddity to have two of your starting pitchers undergo hip surgery in the last year, but that's exactly what the A's have with Gaudin and Justin Duchscherer. Duchscherer is slated to be in Oakland's starting rotation and start his first major-league game since 2003.
Duchsherer appeared in just 17 games with the A's last year because of issues with his hip. A move to the rotation is supposed to put less stress on his hip, as he'll only have to pitch every five days rather than three times in five days.
He's always been an excellent relief pitcher for the A's, never seeing his ERA climb above 3.30 in a full season. It remains to be seen how well he pitches out of the starting rotation, but he has a good enough repotoire of pitches to have success as a starter.
Rounding out Oakland's rotation appears to be Dana Eveland, acquired from Arizona in the Haren trade. Eveland won the job over Lenny DiNardo by posting a spring ERA of 1.20, although DiNardo's was 1.29. Eveland has more upside as a starter and DiNardo has more value as a reliever, so that's why Oakland made this decision.
There are a few young starters who could be called up if Oakland makes a trade or sees one of their starters go down with an injury (looking at you, Rich Harden).
First, there's Gio Gonzalez, picked up from the White Sox as part of the Nick Swisher trade. Gonzalez is just 22, but already he's been shipped from the Sox to the Phillies, back to the Sox, and now to the A's.
Gonzalez is a lefty with electric stuff, striking out 163, 166, and 185 (leading all minor-league pitchers) batters in his three full seasons in the minor leagues. His popping fastball and devastating curveball have also led to a career 3.54 minor league ERA.
Ranked No. 26 in Baseball America's top 100 prospects, Gonzalez should get at least a few starts in the majors if he pitches well at AAA this year.
Greg Smith, a 23-year-old starter acquired in the Haren trade, could also see a few starts at the MLB level this year. Smith was very impressive in spring training, allowing just two runs over 13 innings. He has a solid minor-league track record, going 9-5 with a 3.54 ERA and just 32 walks between AA Mobile and AAA Tucson last year.
Dan Meyer, who was brought over from Atlanta for Tim Hudson three years ago, is getting on in years for a prospect, but still may see some time in the majors. Meyer, 26, was 8-2 with a 3.28 ERA for AAA Sacramento last year. He'll have more competition this year, but still could be a decent callup if he pitches well in the minors.
The rebuilding A's have a very young rotation that could get even younger if Gonzalez and Smith take over for a traded Blanton and an injured Harden. It's hard to dispute Beane's strategy—he definitely has this rotation going in the right direction. For 2008, though, this rotation will take its fair share of lumps, but shouldn't be all that terrible, either.
Starting rotation grade: C+
Bullpen
Like Blanton, don't be surprised if the A's move 24-year-old closer Huston Street sometime before the trade deadline.
The A's and Street appear to be exploring a long-term deal, but if Beane gets an offer he can't refuse like he did for Swisher, he could pull the trigger on a trade that sends Street to another address.
A non-structural elbow injury cost Street two months last year, leading to him getting just 21 save opportunities. Over 45 or so save opportunities, Street should be able to convert no less than 38 or 39 of them if things go right.
Alan Embree has revitalized his career after seeing his ERA soar above seven in 2004 and 2005, pitching very well with San Diego (ERA of 3.27 in 2006) and Oakland (ERA of 3.97 last year). Embree even saved 17/21 games last year while filling in for Street.
Barring something unexpected, Embree should be a pretty solid setup man for Oakland in 2008.
It'll be interesting to see how DiNardo responds to being relegated back to the bullpen, where his presence is desperately needed. In 34.2 innings out of the A's bullpen, DiNardo had an ERA of 1.82 last year. If DiNardo can pitch like that as a long and/or middle reliever, the A's bullpen will get a huge boost. If he returns to his 2006 form when he finished the year with a 7.85 ERA, the A's bullpen will have a massive lack of depth and will struggle.
Santiago Casilla was mediocre in 50.2 innings out of the Oakland bullpen last year, posting an ERA of 4.44. Casilla's major-league stats were consistent with his ERA at AAA, which was 4.47 in 2005, 3.27 in 2006 (an aberration), and 4.12 in limited time in 2007.
Kiko Calero endured the worst season of his career in 2007, likely because he pitched with a torn rotator cuff that was discovered over the winter. The 33-year-old Calero opted for rehab over surgery and should enter the A's bullpen in mid-to-late April, but by not having surgery on his rotator cuff, Calero could be headed down the same path as 2007—poor performance and multiple stints on the disabled list.
Update, 5:40 AM: According to ESPN's Gary Thorne, Calero has been put on the 60-day DL because of his rotator cuff injury. Guess we won't be seeing him for a while.
Rounding out Oakland's bullpen will be none other than Keith Foulke, attempting to make a comeback after "retiring" and dropping out of camp with the Indians last year.
Foulke hasn't been a premier reliever since 2004 when he was Boston's closer. Don't be surprised if Foulke ends up being bumped from Oakland's bullpen sometime this year.
This is an A's bullpen that really lacks depth. While Street, Embree, and DiNardo may all turn in good years, three good pitchers do not make a bullpen.
Bullpen grade: C-
Lineup
Without Nick Swisher, Oakland's lineup lacks a bona fide offensive presence.
Eric Chavez certainly isn't one. He only played in 90 games last year and likely will miss at least the first month of the 2008 season. Even then, Chavez hasn't driven in over 100 runs since 2005. A healthy Chavez may be a productive piece of a lineup for another team, but he shouldn't be counted on to lead the A's offense.
Jack Cust would make another fine part of a contending lineup, but he's not a guy who you want to center your lineup around. While Cust may be a dream player for Billy Beane after posting an on-base percentage of .409 last year, he doesn't have an impressive track record and was drawing offers from Japanese League teams before starting the year in the Athletics farm system.
If Cust can duplicate his 2007 production over a full season in 2008, he could hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs. However, Cust was almost exclusively a DH last year, a spot that will be filled by Mike Sweeney this year. So, Cust will play outfield this year, and if he struggles in the field, there's no telling if that'll carry over to his at-bats. Or, Cust may be just a flash in the pan. Only time will tell.
Speaking of Sweeney, the 34-year-old DH left the Royals–the only organization he ever played for–to sign with the A's as a non-roster invitee. Sweeney won the DH job out of spring training but has been riddled with injuries over the last two years, seeing his batting average drop to .260 and .258 in injury-shortened 2006 and 2007 seasons.
If healthy, Sweeney could return to his career average of a .300 batting average and about 20-25 home runs. However, Sweeney staying off the disabled list a big "if."
It's been about five years since Bobby Crosby was billed as the next great shortstop of the American League. Over the last four years, Crosby has played in less than 100 games in three of the four seasons and has only hit over .240 once. Maybe, just maybe, if Crosby can stay off the disabled list, he'll fulfill that potential, but that's more of a pipe dream than a realistic prediction.
Mark Ellis is a solid offensive second baseman, but he's another candidate to be traded sometime before August.
Chris Denorfia will see a lot of playing time in center after missing all of 2007 following Tommy John surgery. Denorfia was acquired from Cincinnati last April and was projected to be a fourth outfielder for Oakland before the Mark Kotsay trade. He's been a halfway decent hitter in limited time in the majors, so it'll be interesting to see how he does given that and the Tommy John surgery.
The A's do have a few exciting young hitters in this lineup, starting with Travis Buck.
Buck reminds me a lot of Eric Byrnes in that he seems to play "like his hair is on fire." He played about half of 2007 and posted an on-base percentage of .377, which, if it carries over to a full season, will give Oakland a very good leadoff hitter.
Kurt Suzuki, a College World Series hero with Cal State Fullerton, has been regarded as one of the best offensive catching prospects in the minors since joining the Athletics organization in 2004. Suzuki hit .283 with an on-base percentage of .376 over his four-year minor league career and should get all the opportunity to succeed at the major-league level this year.
Daric Barton, who was brought over from St. Louis along with Haren in the Mark Mulder trade after the 2004 season, has a ridiculous on-base percentage of .412 over his five-year minor league career. Barton is an excellent hitter, but did not drive out too many home runs while in the minors. However, power usually develops in good hitters, so don't be surprised if Barton hits 20+ home runs this year.
Like the rest of this team, the A's lineup is being rebuilt. Buck, Suzuki, and Barton all appear to have pretty bright futures as major leaguers, but they certainly can't save this lineup from mediocrity in 2008.
Lineup grade: C
Bench
With Cust playing the outfield, Emil Brown and Ryan Sweeney will both be relegated to backup outfield duty. Brown is an excellent fourth outfielder while Sweeney, once a top prospect in the White Sox organization, could see some significant playing time if he lives up to that potential—something he never did with the White Sox.
Jack Hanahan will see a lot of time at third base with Chavez on the shelf, but once Chavez returns, he'll be a pretty good backup in case Chavez needs a rest or gets injured again.
Rob Bowen or Adam Melhuse are both capable backup catchers to give Suzuki a day off or two.
Dan Johnson provides some decent power and Donnie Murphy some slick defense to round out the A's bench.
Bench grade: B
It looks to be a long season of rebuilding for the A's, but there are a number of good, young talents that could mean a bright future for Oakland.
comments (8) write a comment »
write a new comment
6 months ago
It would be awesome if you gave a reason for why the A's receive a C grade for their offseason. For a team rebuilding, this was one of the best in recent memory. The high ceiling prospects the As acquired and having the stones to move on from Haren and Swisher, who, in their own are great players, but would have become too expensive for the As to retain them once they are fully prepared to compete.
That said, a C grade is a cop out the signals, "Did not do anything to win". In your estimation, will the Mariners, who axed their future, get an A grade because they went for it? Consider the offseason as an evaluation of the bigger picture. A winning team should try to improve its fortunes while understanding the poor house is just around the corner and a losing team should simply focus on the future. To say that the As failed in their attempt at building a successful team in the long run is to lack the foresight and understanding of what exactly the As did.
Sorry to call you out, but you might be better served talking about Hockey.
6 months ago
The C grade was because I don't think they HAD to trade Haren and Swisher. Haren is under a huge bargain contract until 2009 (with an option for 2010 that wouldn't cost the A's a whole lot) and Swisher was signed to a five-year, $26 million deal last May with an option for 2012.
So, while you're right--Haren likely would be too expensive when he leaves after 2010, but with guys like Daric Barton, Kurt Suzuki, Travis Buck, and Henry Rodriguez coming through the system, I don't think it's a stretch to think this team could have contended in 2009 or 2010 if they held on to Swisher & Haren and built around those two, Huston Street, and Joe Blanton. That's why they got a C, in my opinion. Believe me, I'm extremely impressed with the prospects they got–especially Fautino De Los Santos from the White Sox–but I don't think it was necessary for them to start rebuilding right now.
This also brings me to another point--why the personal attack at the end? You made some good points, then just threw that one in there. This goes back to one of the problems I have with BR–people will make sound arguments against something in your article, then throw a childish personal attack in to close it out. I understand that people will disagree with my articles, and that all comes with writing stuff for everyone to see. If you disagree with it, state why you do and provide sound reasoning to back it up–like you did here, Brandon. But the personal attacks are completely unnecessary. I'm sure I'm not alone when I say that when commenters use personal attacks, it makes me lose respect for a lot of what they have to say.
from 6 months ago
If you can't handle a quick jab, you are better off not getting into sports journalism. In fact, if you can't take a jab that was as light and unharming as the one I sent to you, its probably best you forget about sports altogether. Consider the website 'firejoemorgan.com', would you say that is more or less hurtful then the comment I made?
I recognize you may simply be venting, but leave me out of it. Its the first time I have said anything negative to you and was meant as a joke. I apologize for 'hurting' you...
That said, consider two things:
1. The Athletics of 2007 with Swisher and an overachieving Haren finished 3rd in the division. Certainly they had some room to grow, but how much? 14 more wins would have gotten them to 90 which would be the bare minimum for making the playoffs. So with the EXACT same team and some development the club would have to gain at least 14 wins, that sounds like quite the leap for a team with few high ceiling players.
2. The Swisher and Haren trades were probably the best and third best trades this off season with a look to the future. Yet Swisher and Haren were probably the 5th and 6th best players traded. EVEN IF the As were on the cusp of making the playoffs and were simply one player away from doing so the trades Beane made will go a lot further then the CUSP of the playoffs. This will be one of the best teams in the AL from 2010-2014.
And there is your problem. You were viewing the As as a team close to making the playoffs. In your opinion, the A's would have been better served making marginal moves to get up to 85? 88? 90 wins? With the players they had at the end of last season it would have taken MAJOR moves to get them even to 90 wins which doesn't even guarantee a playoff spot.
That is what I dislike about BR. It is simply OPINIONS. There are few facts and even less research. When someone is asked how they came up with a C grade and decide not to give reasons as to how the C grade could have improved to an A, they focus on the fact that someone merely called out their premise. Take it as constructive criticism and NOT an insult. The world isn't against you.
from 6 months ago
By the way, when you commented on losing respect for me based on my opinion, that made me lose respect for you.
An insult can be fired directly (as I did) or indirectly (as you have chosen).
But leave that as it may be and simply give me 5 things the As could have done differently to turn them from a 74 win team in 2007 to a 90+ win and playoff team in 2008.
from 6 months ago
I don't think there was anything they could have done to make the playoffs in 2008 considering what the Angels and Mariners did. Their young players are still just that--young--and need to get a full season under their belt before they really can take off, but it wouldn't have surprised me if this team was to make a run with Haren & Swisher in 2009.
I get what you're saying, and it's a simple difference in philosophies about the game. You have a more big-picture approach while I'm more of a win-now type guy. I also realize that Gio, de los Santos, and about five of the guys they got from Arizona all could have huge impacts in 2010. And, maybe when combined, they'll have a bigger total impact than Haren & Swisher would.
I didn't lose any respect for your opinion, because you made some good points about my article and I understood where you were coming from. I've read a lot of your stuff and you have a good baseball mind and I really commend you for getting the gig working for that baseball website. I guess it just threw me off when I was reading some really good criticism of my article and then that hockey jab got thrown in there. I know that with putting your opinion out there, you're going to deal with a lot of those personal jabs. I used to be guilty of throwing them in there when criticizing other's articles, but they really serve no purpose except to piss the writer off. I enjoy a lively debate about baseball, but not being told that I'm an idiot. So, think of me what you will, Brandon. I appreciate your criticism of my article and may end up re-thinking that "C" grade in the end.
6 months ago
you are an idiot. Brandon should be doing these baseball previews, not some sissy who starts crying as soon as someone insults him. You are not the president of baseball knowledge, you get things wrong. a lot. either be a man or pack it up.
6 months ago
Offseason definitely is better than a C. As a fan of the A's and a big believer in Beane, I have a hunch you're underrating us a bit. Still, your logic is sound for most of this.
The offseason wasn't a C though. Before the Haren trade, Baseball America said the A's had the 27th best farm system in the majors. Now, it's 2nd. That's not a C, that's an A, no matter who you give up. Plus Haren was figured out by the AL last year, as his 2nd-half stats prove. The A's sold high.
6 months ago
Agree with above comments regarding offseason grade. Not so sure I buy the record prediction..losing 94 games?? They won't be THAT bad. I am an A's fan so I am a little biased, but I think the world of Kurt and I've heard so damn much about Daric Barton that he better be good.
write a new comment