For those of you who were smart enough to draft Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts this year and savvy enough to build a team that made the fantasy playoffs, you may find yourselves in a bit of a pickle on Sunday morning.
Do you start Luck, who has been so good to you this season, or do you sit him against the tough Houston Texans?
It may surprise you but I'm here to convince you that you must start him, and you should expect big numbers. But it's not the easiest argument to make, I know, so like Don Draper I'm going to have to sell you on the concept.
Let's start with consistency. In standard-scoring leagues, Luck has scored 16 or more fantasy points eight times this season. He's only failed to reach double-digit fantasy points three times. He may be a rookie, but for fantasy owners he's produced like a veteran.
Plus, Luck has quietly rushed for five touchdowns this season, meaning even if he's having a mediocre day through the air he's still capable of tacking on an easy six points to his total with a bootleg in the red zone.
But what about his opponent, the seemingly formidable Texans defense?
What people sometimes forget is that the Texans are actually quite formidable against the pass. They allow 239.2 passing yards per game (19th in NFL) and 15.5 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in standard-scoring leagues (16th in NFL).
Plus, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots absolutely torched the Texans through the air last week, throwing for 296 yards and four touchdowns. That could certainly motivate the Texans to shore up defensively, or it could offer the Colts a game plan to attack their opponent.
And its not like the Colts will effectively be able to run the ball. The Colts rush for just 105.8 yards per game (22nd in NFL), while the Texans allow a meager 90.8 yards per contest (third in NFL).
In other words, Luck is going to throw early and often. By sheer quantity of passes alone, he should compile solid numbers for owners. And hey, even if this game is a blowout the Colts will still be throwing the rock around late.
It all adds up to a big fantasy day for Luck, folks. I'm thinking you'll get 19 points from the rookie on Sunday.
So there you have it. You've just been Drapered. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to pour some Scotch, have a cigarette and enjoy the company of countless beautiful women.
Or I'll just watch football all day long. Yeah, I'll probably do that.
Hit me up on Twitter—my tweets want to remind everyone that Luck is much better for you than Lucky Strikes.