Nuggets-Suns: NBA Odds and Picks, March 23, 2009

OAKLAND, CA - MARCH 15: Steve Nash #13 and Shaquille O'Neal #32 of the Phoenix Suns look on against the Golden State Warriors during an NBA game on March 15, 2009 at Oracle Arena in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

(Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

Free Pick: Denver Nuggets +3.5
Mon March 23 2009 10:05p - Click here for NBA Odds
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The Denver Nuggets (45-25) enter into this game against the high-flying Phoenix Suns (38-31) capable of matching their opponents' offensive exploits point for point.

The difference maker comes on defense, where they Nuggets allow 100.3 PPG, compared to the Suns 106.4 PPG, which gives us a lot of value backing the road dog, in my humble opinion.

The Nuggets are playing their best basketball of the season, as they go for their sixth straight win against an inconsistent Suns side, which, despite four straight wins, lost six straight earlier this month, and has already lost 13 home games this season.

The Suns are 3-15 ATS against top tier shooting teams, making 46 percent of their shots this season, losing SU by an average of 7.7 PPG.

Suns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning SU Record.

Projected score: Denver 121, Phoenix 116.