Toronto Blue Jays' 2009 Season Preview: Go North, Young Man

The Toronto Blue Jays enter the 2009 uncertain of where they stand in the competitive AL East. The Yankees and Red Sox, both spent millions of dollars in free agency to ensure that they are competitive once again. 

Last year’s darlings, the Tampa Bay Rays made the jump from the perennial losers to World Series runners-up and the Baltimore Orioles have lots of young prospects that are on the verge of developing into all-stars. 

Where does this leave the Jays? Well for the most part it leaves them as an afterthought in playoff talk. Baseball Prospectus puts them on track for 81 wins. A .500 season after being 10 games above that mark last year isn’t the progress that fans and management is looking for. 

Manager Cito Gaston must now try to engage his players and get a whole season of production like he did during the second half of last year after replacing John Gibbons. 

The Jays 2009 fate hinges on a few select players. The one player that needs to return to All-Star form for the Jays to have any success is Vernon Wells.

The Jays' center fielder has the ability to hit for average and power (20 HR, .300 AVR. in 2008), but his numbers have dipped considerably since his 2006 season (32 HR, 106 RBI), where just by coincidence he was playing for a new contract. 

If the Jays are to contend this year, Wells needs to get back to those numbers of 30 plus home runs, 100 runs batted in and the .300 average. Wells has also battled the injury bug in recent seasons, a variety of ailments including, pulled hamstrings, shoulder problems, and bad wrists have plagued him. 

This spring Wells has again been hampered by injury. With only a couple of weeks before the season starts, Vernon Wells has just started to see big league pitching again. A notoriously slow starter in April and May, this could delay him rounding into form until June or July.

That would no doubt put an early end to any plans for October. 

Wells’ outfield partner Alex Rios is another player who will have a hand in whether or not the Jays can keep themselves in the hunt for October baseball. In the second half of the year, under the watchful eye of Manager Cito Gaston, Rios began to hit and run like he had when he made the jump to All-Star in 2006 and 2007. 

Although he finished with rather pedestrian numbers in 2008 (15 HR, 79 RBI), Rios is still a good enough player that he is a starter on a loaded Puerto Rican team during this year’s World Baseball Classic.

Playing with the likes of Carlos Beltran and former Jay Carlos Delgado, look for him to improve offensively and top the 20 HR and 95 RBI mark for 2009 and try to push the Jays from a .500 team into a position to contend. 

The Jays finished near the bottom of the AL in almost every offensive category in 2008, what kept them afloat was their pitching. If the likes of Wells and Rios can’t pick up their game, it is what will carry them again. The obvious choice for a pitcher to watch is Roy Halladay. 

The ace of the staff and leader of the team, he will once again be a candidate for the Cy Young award and a lock for 30 starts and 200+ innings pitched. Without A.J. Burnett, who bolted to the Yankees as a free agent, the Jays are without a bona fide No. 2 starter. 

The pressure is squarely on the man that will take his spot in the rotation – Jesse Litsch.  The former Tampa Bay Rays bat boy made the jump to the majors in 2007 and won his first start against the Baltimore Orioles. 

Last year Litsch went 13-9, finished with two complete games (both shutouts) and a very respectable 3.58 ERA. Litsch will need to continue to find the strike zone (he walked under two batters per nine innings in 2008) and get some of those decisions that eluded him last year.

After the nucleus of players discussed, the rest of the team has the potential to achieve 90 wins and make a push to the playoffs, but those same players could just as easily implode and turn this into a frustrating season for fans going to games at the Rogers Centre.

Around the infield, the Jays will put Lyle Overbay at first, Aaron Hill seems to be fully recovered from post-concussion syndrome, and he will be at second, and at shortstop there will be a platoon between John McDonald and Marco Scutaro.

Patrolling the hot corner will be Scott Rolen. Pushing the veteran will be last season’s acquisition Jose Bautista.

This might make Rolen expandable during the season, allowing General Manager JP Ricciardi to move him to a contender and getting some good prospects in return, all of that hinges on whether Rolen actually makes contact with the ball. 

Behind the plate, the Jays lost Greg Zaun and his rocket of an arm to the Baltimore Orioles during the offseason, so they will start his platoon mate from last year, Rod Barajas.

The back up catchers job was one of the few battles the Jays had in camp. The Jays signed Michael Barret in the winter from the Padres and also have two excellent catching prospects: JP Arencibia and Brian Jeroloman.

Although it was thought one of the prospects might be able to come North with the team, both prospects have already been assigned to the minor leagues. Expect at least one of them, probably Arencibia to make an appearance with the big league club during the season. 

The other young catcher not even mentioned yet is Curtis Thigpen. Thigpen has been passed on the prospects depth chart by Arencibia and Jeroloman, so look for the Jays to either move him to first base or make him available for trade.

The outfield is strong defensively. Alex Rios has one of the strongest right field arms in the game (he finished with 14 outfield assists in 2008). Vernon Wells, when healthy is a gold glove center fielder, and whoever plays in left, you know will hustle because they want to play the next game.

If, and it is a big “if”, manager Cito Gaston and hitting coach Gene Tenace can get them to produce at the plate, like they play the field, this could be considered one of the best outfields in the American League. 

The players fighting for the left field spot are youngsters Travis Snider and Adam Lind. Both have shown promise in the spring and they both deserve a spot on the roster and playing to prove they are major leaguers.

In the DH role, Snider or Lind will split time with Kevin Millar. The right handed bat off the bench will provide veteran leadership and a winning attitude in a clubhouse that needs desperately needs to know they can win and hang with the likes of the top teams in the division like the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.

The pitching staff is definitely the strong suit of this team. Although, there are some question marks with the starters regarding their experience, the bullpen is strong and will be there to pitch plenty of innings when called upon.

The rotation should line up with Halladay and Litsch at the top and then youngsters David Purcey, and Casey Janssen. 

Manager Cito Gaston is still trying to figure out the No. 5 spot. Expect a rotation between Scott Richmond, rookie Brian Mills or Ricky Romero.

Unfortunately, both veterans that Ricciardi signed in the off season to fill the fifth starter spot, Matt Clement and Mike Maroth have been unimpressive and probably will not make the team.

The bullpen, which led the AL in ERA last season, is again strong with closer BJ Ryan, Scott Downs, Brandon League, and Jason Frasor leading the charge. As long as the bullpen stays healthy, the Jays will be able to protect leads after the seventh inning.  They need to win the one-run games and this bullpen will allow them to do just that.

Going into Apr. 6 and the first game of the season vs. the Detroit Tigers, this Blue Jays team could go in two distinct directions.

One, the team is able to hit and score runs, while the young starting pitchers develop quicker than expected. The other, the offence struggles and the pitching staff doesn’t come through with the performance like it did in 2008. 

If we get scenario one, the Jays will be in fight come September for the wild card spot.  Should scenario two happen, the Jays will finish fourth in the division and the rebuilding process will need to start again, this time with a new GM and Manager.