Pacquiao vs Marquez Odds: Why Smart Money Is on Marquez in Fight No. 4

Ian HanfordFeatured ColumnistDecember 7, 2012

LAS VEGAS, NV - DECEMBER 07:  Boxer Juan Manuel Marquez poses on the scale during the official weigh-in for his welterweight bout against Manny Pacquiao at the MGM Grand Garden Arena on December 7, 2012 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Pacquiao and Marquez will fight each other for the fourth time on December 8 in Las Vegas.  (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Getty Images)
Jeff Bottari/Getty Images

The history between Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez is well-documented, and the fourth fight between the two promises to be just as exciting as the last three were.

But, there will be one major difference. Marquez is going to beat the odds and win this bout.

First, let's take a look at the line for Saturday night's blockbuster fight, courtesy of Bovada.lv:

Money Line

Manny Pacquiao: -270

Juan Manuel Marquez: +210

The odds will tell you to pick Pacquiao to beat Marquez for the fourth straight time, but the smart money should go towards Marquez.

If Pacquiao had dominated Marquez in any of the first three fights, I would say differently.

But he didn't.

At least one of those decisions could have gone the other way, which will have Marquez hungry for victory this time around.

Pacquiao's strengths will actually be his downfall in this one. He can't be happy about losing to Timothy Bradley in his last fight, and he probably shouldn't have lost at all. Because of that decision though, he will come out on the offensive more than he normally would.

That plays right into Marquez's hands. Marquez isn't going to seek Pacquiao out in an all-out offensive battle, but he can hurt Pac-Man when he decides to come to him.

When it comes to counter punching, Marquez is one of the best fighters in the business. He's also a boxer who knows his strengths and rarely fights outside of himself. Both of those factors will play in his favor against an overzealous and undisciplined Pac-Man.

Pacquiao has a lot more to lose in this fight.

Marquez's days as a consistent contender are behind him because of his age, but Pac-Man still has one final fight on his (and everyone else's) mind. He's facing more pressure and it's hard to tell how that will affect him

Taking the underdog, according to Bovada, is a wise choice here. Marquez has come so close to defeating Pacquiao in the past and he will finally get over the hump on Saturday night.

Risking money on Marquez might seem scary, but it will only take one mistake from Pac-Man to change that.