Understanding Lady Luck

Sometimes, a player comes out of nowhere to put up incredible numbers in a single year...and then is never heard from again.

Sometimes, a great player puts up numbers far better than his career averages...and then returns to Earth the following season.

Sometimes, a rookie phenom catches fire...and then simply disappears. 

In this column, I dig into the stats of five big league players who've put up ginormous numbers this year—with the hope that we can understand where they've come from and where they're going.

J.J. Putz

Putz is the closer for the red-hot Seattle Mariners. In 46.1 innings, he has converted 29 of 29 save opportunities with a 0.78 ERA and a 0.56 WHIP. 

But is he as good as his numbers? 

Well, no. J.J. Putz is a very good pitcher, but a closer look at his sabermetric stats suggests he has gotten a lot of help from Lady Luck. 

First, the defense behind Putz has been unsustainably good. The Mariners have successfully fielded 84 percent of balls put into play when Putz is on the mound. Normally, that figure is closer to 70 percent...which means Putz's numbers are bound to come down when balls start finding their way onto open grass.

Putz's expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP) is 2.94. Last year his xFIP was 2.33, which suggests he was actually a better pitcher in 2006. 

The 2.94 xFIP still puts Putz among the best relievers in the game today, but it's a far cry from the subzero ERA he has in the books.

The bottom line: This season is a fluke, and Putz can be expected to put up numbers consistent with his career averages in 2008. Still, he's one of the best guys to hand the ball to when you're looking to preserve a lead.

Dan Haren

The Oakland A's ace has 10 wins under his belt in 20 starts, and is sporting a remarkable 2.33 ERA. Those numbers represent a significant departure from his normal production, which shouts "fluke" to someone like me.

Haren's expected ERA stands just over 4.00, almost two full runs a game higher than his actual ERA. This normally indicates that a pitcher is getting some extra help from his fielders, and would seem to portend a regression to the mean.  

But the big change for Haren in 2007 has been the number of fly balls hit against him, not spectacular defense. It could be that Haren's pitching arsenal is finally starting to click after a few years of inconsistency.

Though we can expect Haren's numbers to flag down the stretch, I think he has made enough adjustments to stay away from the 4.12 ERA he posted in 2006.  

Still, don't look for him to be in the running for the Cy Young Award at the end of the year. 

Hunter Pence

The Houston Astros' rookie center fielder has been tearing up the league, hitting .328 with 12 home runs and an excellent .564 slugging percentage. 

Is Pence just a flash in the pan...or can Texans expect big things from the 6'4" youngster?

My vote is big things. 

The bad news is that Pence's batting average overstates his ability. 52 percent of his balls batted into play are grounders, and he has enjoyed a "Batting Average of Balls in Play" (BA/BIP) of .378.  Only Ichiro Suzuki could (and has) maintained a BA/BIP that high. 

Eventually, more and more of those seeing-eye singles are going to turn into outs.  A batting average around .300 is probably going to be the standard for Pence.

The good news, though, is that Pence's power numbers are for real. He drives the ball well, and a good percentage of his fly balls find their way out of the park. He's not a patient hitter, with an 11/60 walk-to-strikeout ratio, but that's easily made up for by his .917 OPS. 

Even though his average is going to come down, in other words, Pence is slugging about where one would expect based on his minor league stats. He looks to be here to stay. 

Dmitri Young

At 33, Young is no spring chicken. But after a year that involved a messy divorce, a hospital stay, and AA meetings, he has gotten back into baseball with a vengeance. 

Young has a batting average of .340 and OPS of .913.  His career numbers are closer to .300 and .800.

What's going on? It appears Young is timing pitchers better than he has in recent years. In 2006 his "Line Drive Percentage" (LD%) was 14 percent. This year it's 22 percent. 

A higher LD% tells me Dmitri is getting good swings and making solid contact. However, he's also getting lucky, with a BA/BIP around .380. His career BA/BIP sits in the .300 range. 

To simplify, Young's numbers this year are unsustainable, but if it's true that he's a changed man, he should return to his lifetime averages down the road. Since he's over-the-hill in baseball years, he may experience a decline next season that could see his batting average fall into the .290 range.

Of course, I don't think Young is especially concerned about his numbers. From the interviews I've read, he's just happy to be alive and playing baseball.

Magglio Ordonez

Ordonez is having the season of his career: a .359 batting average and a 1.013 OPS. 

Ordonez is a consistently good player, and none of his major numbers have changed. Like the other hitters studied here, though, he has enjoyed an inflated BA/BIP.

Most significantly, Ordonez has reduced his number of infield pop flies in 2007, which for the most part is simply a matter of luck.

Remember, the difference between a .300 hitter and a .350 hitter is one hit per week—an extra Texas-leaguer or infield single every seven days. Over the course of a career, these variations disappear. You can't count on luck for extended periods of time. 

The point in all this, of course, is the analysis, not the numbers. If you want to learn more about the specific stats I used here, the Hardball Times offers an extensive sabermetric glossary. 

By using xFIP, BA/BIP, and other available indicators, you can determine whether a player's production is more a function of skill or luck. Sometimes, you find out it's a little of both. 

All of the players named in this column are talented. Luck, in the end, is simply where preparation meets opportunity. Good players make their own good fortune. But that doesn't mean it's right to hold them to unrealistic expectations. 

Putz, Ordonez, and Young are good players, and that won't change. In my opinion, Pence is going to be a regular All-Star. As for Haren, he's having a career year. He'll likely be an above-average pitcher in 2008 and beyond...but he's not going to rank among the great pitchers of his era.

Marty Andrade is a frequent contributor to the Bleacher Report and the host of a live weekly podcast available at BlogTalkRadio.com/Andrade.