Matt Forte fantasy owners, I have good news and I have bad news.
Let's start with the good (via Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times):
#Bears RB Matt Forte said he'll play Sunday against the Seahawks.— Sean Jensen (@seankjensen) November 29, 2012
Hooray, he's going to play! What could possibly be the bad news?
Here's where I become a buzz kill—I don't like Forte at all this week. First of all, he's coming off an ankle injury and the Chicago Bears have an excellent backup running back in Michael Bush. Bush rushed for 60 yards and two touchdowns in relief duty last week.
In other words, why would Chicago overwork Forte and risk injuring him further? Wouldn't you limit his carries if you were Lovie Smith?
Of course you would.
Plus, Forte hasn't exactly been an elite fantasy option this year, with three straight weeks of less than seven fantasy points in standard-scoring leagues. He's hit double-digit points for owners just five times this year, well below his standards.
And it's not going to get easier against a tough Seattle Seahawks defense. Seattle allows just 14.8 fantasy points to opposing running backs per week (sixth in NFL) and 108.6 rushing yards per game (12th in NFL).
This game is in Chicago and the Seahawks are 1-5 on the road this season, but the defense has generally played well regardless of the game's location.
Matt Forte will score _________ fantasy points this week.
Forte supporters might also point out that the Seahawks have given up 147 or more rushing yards in three of the past five weeks and four rushing touchdowns in that time, so the star running back should be just fine in this matchup.
If he wasn't coming off of an ankle injury, I might agree. And if the suspensions of Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner were kicking in this week, I might think the Bears could loosen up the Seahawks with the passing game and pound the rock on them in the second half.
But I simply can't advocate starting Forte this week unless you're really in a jam or you don't have a better option at the flex. All signs point to a disappointing afternoon for the running back.
In this case, the bad news outweighs the good, I'm afraid.
Hit me up on Twitter—tweeting is my Forte.