Is Jason Bay a No. 1 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder?

Jason Bay has finally escaped the shackles of Pittsburgh. With the loaded lineup of the Red Sox surrounding him, Bay enters 2009 looking like one of the top fantasy OFers in the game, much like he was in 2005 and 2006. 

The question is, can he return to those lofty standards?

Overall, his 2008 campaign was impressive:

577 At Bats
.286 Batting Average (165 Hits)
31 Home Runs
101 RBI
111 Runs
10 Stolen Bases
.373 On Base Percentage
.522 Slugging Percentage
.328 Batting Average on Balls in Play

It’s easy to point to his move to Boston, but he was playing exceptionally well prior to the trade from Pittsburgh. In the first half of the season, he hit .287 with 19 HR, 53 RBI, and 64 R. 

Obviously, being on the Red Sox is a boost to his value, especially if David Ortiz can remain healthy.

That isn’t the story here. The idea of him playing in Boston is all fine and dandy, but he has proved that he can contribute while playing in a weaker lineup. No, the real question is if he can continue to excel, or if a flashback to his 2007 disaster could be in store.

Tendinitis in his knee was credited for his down campaign. Could it creep back into the picture again and sideline him? 

Anything is possible, but I wouldn’t expect it. Last season certainly should have eased those concerns.

Despite hitting 31 HR last season, his HR/FB was not what he has proven capable in the past. Since 2004, he’s posted the following ratios:

• 2004—21.3 percent
  
• 2005—17.0 percent
  
• 2006—18.8 percent
  
• 2007—11.4 percent
  
• 2008—15.0 percent
  

He has shown the potential to hit home runs at a higher pace than he did last season, though a regression in the number of fly balls he hits could offset it. Last season, he set a career high with a 46.0 FB percent, placing him 15th in the league.

While people want to point to his full-time move to Fenway as a positive, it certainly wasn’t last season. In 87 AB, he hit just .264 with three home runs. 

That gives me a slight cause for concern. I know, the thoughts of him playing pepper with the Green Monster are enticing, but I don’t see them as a given, considering that production last season.

Yes, he will be playing in a significantly better lineup (as we mentioned). In Pittsburgh, all he really had was Nate McLouth. Now he has Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and others joining him.

That should help him repeat his RBI total, as he has exceeded the 100 mark on three occasions. However, the runs could be lacking, depending on where he hits in the order.  Last season, they were using him in the No. 5 hole, and while that Red Sox lineup is deep, it’s not that deep.

He will be depending on J.D. Drew and Jason Varitek to consistently drive him in. 

Is it possible? 

Yeah, I guess, but it is highly unlikely.  I wouldn’t expect this to be the fourth time he crosses the century mark.

With a career 12.5 percent walk rate, he offers a very good eye, though he still strikes out an awful lot. Last season it was at 23.7 percent, below his career mark of 26.4 percent. That is the biggest reason that he does not hit over .300.

His key to a good season is the walk rate. In the three seasons where he has gone 100/100, he’s posted walk rates of:

• 2005—13.7 percent
  
• 2006—15.2 percent
  
• 2008—12.3 percent
  

In 2004 and 2007, his walk rates were below 10 percent.

With all that said, let’s take a look at what I would expect from him this season:

.278 (157-565), 28 HR, 108 RBI, 85 R, 9 SB, .317 BABIP, .370 OBP, .492 SLG

Before people question the AB, I have him projected for a 12.81 percent walk rate (83 walks). This projection pretty much supports more of the same from Bay, for the most part. 

While he is going to have more opportunity to drive in runs, hitting lower in the lineup will likely limit his run scoring potential.

To me, that costs him from being a No. 1 outfielder. He’s more of a great No. 2 (I had him ranked as the No. 12 OFer in my rankings, which you can view by clicking here) in my book. 

What about you? 

What do you expect from him this season?

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM