Boise State has the defense to limit Nevada on Saturday and Nevada can't seem to stop anybody.
It all adds up to the Broncos' first MWC title.
Boise State has allowed just 14.4 points per game this season, fifth in the nation and first in the MWC. That includes holding Fresno State to 10 points on Oct. 13.
Nevada can certainly score (38.5 points per game, second in the conference), but Boise State's defensive performance against the Bulldogs tells you a lot.
Also, the Wolf Pack have allowed 21 points or more to every one of their opponents this season, including giving up 37 points to UNLV, 31 points to Air Force and 28 points to Wyoming.
Consider that Nevada's offensive attack is largely predicated on its running game, and that Boise State is allowing 3.43 yards per carry this season (tops in the MWC, via CFBStats.com), and you can understand why it may be difficult for the Wolf Pack to beat the incoming Broncos in Reno.
Who will win on Saturday?
Chris Petersen continues to prove he's one of the best coaches in the nation and he's led Boise State to a 9-2 record this season. He has the Broncos playing solid defense and finding ways to score behind quarterback Joe Southwick and running backs D.J. Harper and Jay Ajayi.
Another thing: Since losing to Colin Kaepernick's Wolf Pack in November 2010, Petersen's squad has won six straight road conference games by an average of 27.2 points.
Nevada will be limited offensively on Saturday while the Broncos go on to grab a share of the MWC championship.