After a year in which lofty expectations and a high NCAA tournament seed were not met, the Wisconsin Badgers weren't seen as a threat to the Big Ten throne in 2008-09.
As most Bo Ryan-coached teams do, the Badgers grinded through their schedule—one of the country's toughest—to finish 19-12 and earned their 11th straight ticket to the Big Dance.
Since the field expanded to 64 teams, the Badgers have never been seeded lower than ninth. A No. 12 seed makes the Badgers significant first-round underdogs for the first time in program history.
The matchup Wisconsin draws in Boise, Idaho, couldn't be worse. The No. 5-seeded Florida State Seminoles and hot-shooting Toney Douglas await the Badgers in the first round's final tip-off, set for 9:55 p.m. EDT Friday night.
Wisconsin had a lackluster 4-10 record against teams in this year's NCAA tourney field, topped by a 63-50 home victory over Illinois.
The Seminoles, on the other hand, hold a victory over North Carolina and played another No. 1 seed, Pittsburgh, close earlier in the season.
The difference is clear. Illinois is a first-round upset candidate, while North Carolina and Pittsburgh have eyes set for the Final Four and a national championship.
It all starts with Douglas for Florida State. He is their unquestioned leader, averaging team-leading totals of 21.3 points, 2.9 assists, and 1.9 steals per game. The senior guard shoots 80 percent from the free throw line, nearly 40 percent from three-point range, and only averages two fouls per contest.
Wisconsin, on the other hand, really doesn't have a go-to scorer like Douglas. No Badger player averages more than 13 points per game. Even more, no Badger averages more than three assists per game, and only Joe Krabbenhoft averages more than five rebounds per contest.
The Badgers have never been a superstar-oriented squad, but the lack of a player such as Alando Tucker, Michael Flowers, Devin Harris, and, to a lesser extent, Brian Butch, handicaps Wisconsin's chances of advancing in this year's tournament.
While the Badgers are strong on defense (opponents average 59 points per game), the Seminoles are strong as well. Without much surprise, it is Douglas that leads the charge on the defensive side as well.
The key for a Wisconsin upset is two-fold.
First, the Badgers must shut down Douglas and force the offensive load on Florida State's supporting cast. No Seminole other than Douglas averages more than 27 minutes per game (as compared to Douglas' 36.4 minutes/game), and no player averages double-digits in scoring.
Wisconsin must also find consistent scoring. Marcus Landry and Trevon Hughes, the team's top two scorers during the regular season, must step up when the lights shine the brightest to aid any defensive containment of Douglas.
If both of these things do not happen, the Badgers will fly back to Madison early. If they do, it may be the Seminoles heading home early.
Look for Florida State to take the Badgers down on their way to a possible regional semifinal matchup with top-seeded Pittsburgh.
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