2012 College Football Week 12 Picks: Kansas State over Baylor

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2012 College Football Week 12 Picks: Kansas State over Baylor
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

A teenager just threw the college football season into a tizzy.

Led by freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M's upset win over Alabama knocked the Crimson Tide from the ranks of the unbeaten, out of the national championship picture (for now) and opened the door for the most unlikely of contenders if you were to rewind the tape back to August.

Two more wins and Kansas State is in the BCS National Championship. As college football pundits like to say this time of year, "If the season ended today, the Wildcats would face the Oregon Ducks in the title game." Bill Snyder's crew must knock off Baylor this week before enjoying a timely late-season bye the week of Thanksgiving.

When you dissect K-State's stats, their average margin of victory jumps out and smacks you in the face. The Wildcats average 42.2 points per game, while holding opponents to 17.7—ranked 14th in the BCS. Quarterback Colin Klein continues to impose his “death by a thousand cuts” against opposing defenses. He's only rushed for more than 90 yards twice this season, but has scored at least one rushing touchdown in nine out of the team's 10 games this season (did not score Week 1). Klein threw only his third interception of the season last Saturday compared to 12 passing touchdowns.

In order for Baylor to pull the upset, the Bears are going to need to contain Klein and cut down on the turnovers that have plagued them this season. Baylor has lost six fumbles and thrown 10 interceptions this year. When you factor in that Kansas State is first in the country in turnover margin (+2.10), Baylor can't afford to make mistakes.

The Bears remain one of the highest-scoring teams in the country at 42.7 points per game. This allowed the team to hang around with Oklahoma for four quarters last week before falling 42-34 to the Sooners.

We simulated the Bears and the Wildcats 101 times and it's K-State winning more than 80 percent of the time by an average score of 30-19.

College Football Week 12
Matchup Win% Avg Score  
North Carolina State Wolfpack 31.7 21 Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers 68.3 27  
South Florida Bulls 39.6 23 Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes 60.4 26  
Duke Blue Devils 45.5 29 Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 54.5 30  
North Carolina Tar Heels 56.4 25 Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers 43.6 24  
Virginia Tech Hokies 72.8 26 Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles 27.2 20  
Florida State Seminoles 76.2 28 Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins 23.8 18  
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 48.5 22 Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats 51.5 24  
Minnesota Golden Gophers 29.7 20 Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers 70.3 26  
Iowa Hawkeyes 41.6 19 Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines 58.4 23  
Indiana Hoosiers 45.5 24 Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions 54.5 26  
Northwestern Wildcats 49.5 22 Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans 50.5 24  
Purdue Boilermakers 59.4 22 Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini 40.6 18  
Ohio State Buckeyes 71.3 24 Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers 28.7 18  
Eastern Michigan Eagles 24.8 20 Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos 75.2 28  
Toledo Rockets 43.6 25 Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies 56.4 26  
Kent State Golden Flashes 45.5 22 Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons 54.5 23  
Miami (OH) RedHawks 46.5 25 Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas 53.5 26  
Ohio Bobcats 48.0 27 Boxscore
@ Ball State Cardinals 52.0 28  
Buffalo Bulls 64.4 24 Boxscore
@ Massachusetts Minutemen 35.6 19  
Stanford Cardinal 20.8 19 Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks 79.2 27  
California Golden Bears 30.7 21 Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers 69.3 26  
Washington State Cougars 37.6 24 Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils 62.4 27  
Arizona Wildcats 48.5 25 Boxscore
@ Utah Utes 51.5 26  
USC Trojans 53.5 27 Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins 46.5 26  
Washington Huskies 69.8 26 Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes 30.2 19  
Sam Houston State Bearkats 5.0 7 Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies 95.0 52  
Wofford Terriers 5.0 6 Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks 95.0 47  
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 5.0 6 Boxscore
@ Florida Gators 95.0 45  
Georgia Southern Eagles 5.0 7 Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs 95.0 51  
Samford Bulldogs 5.0 8 Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats 95.0 39  
Western Carolina Catamounts 5.0 7 Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide 95.0 55  
Alabama A&M Bulldogs 5.0 8 Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers 95.0 40  
Mississippi Rebels 25.7 16 Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers 74.3 25  
Arkansas Razorbacks 37.1 22 Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs 62.9 25  
Tennessee Volunteers 40.1 20 Boxscore
@ Vanderbilt Commodores 59.9 23  
Syracuse Orange 49.5 22 Boxscore
@ Missouri Tigers 50.5 23  
Utah State Aggies 37.6 27 Boxscore
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 62.4 30  
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 50.0 27 Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals 50.0 26  
Brigham Young Cougars 70.3 29 Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans 29.7 22  
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 22.8 18 Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish 77.2 29  
Texas State Bobcats 24.8 20 Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen 75.2 29  
Temple Owls 68.3 25 Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights 31.7 19  
Texas Tech Red Raiders 48.5 27 Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys 51.5 28  
Oklahoma Sooners 54.5 30 Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers 45.5 28  
Iowa State Cyclones 57.4 27 Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks 42.6 23  
Kansas State Wildcats 80.2 30 Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears 19.8 19  
Houston Cougars 45.0 27 Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd 55.0 28  
Memphis Tigers 48.5 24 Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers 51.5 26  
UCF Knights 49.5 26 Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane 50.5 27  
Southern Methodist Mustangs 55.4 26 Boxscore
@ Rice Owls 44.6 23  
UTEP Miners 56.4 25 Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles 43.6 22  
East Carolina Pirates 66.8 28 Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave 33.2 21  
Colorado State Rams 11.9 15 Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos 88.1 29  
Hawaii Warriors 30.2 16 Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons 69.8 25  
Wyoming Cowboys 55.4 25 Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels 44.6 22  
Nevada Wolf Pack 78.2 28 Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos 21.8 19  
North Texas Mean Green 29.7 22 Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 70.3 28  
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 34.7 23 Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 65.3 28  
Arkansas State Red Wolves 55.4 32 Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans 44.6 29  
FIU Golden Panthers 62.4 24 Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls 37.6 21  
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 77.7 30 Boxscore
@ South Alabama Jaguars 22.3 21  

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2012 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

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