I’m calling it, right here, right now. The National League Central will pose zero threat to the other divisions in baseball. There is not a team in this division that should strike fear in the eyes of an opponent for a three game series, let alone in October. Last year, the division-winning Cubs would have finished no better then third in any of the other divisions in baseball, doing so in a division where half of the teams finished with only 73 victories.
National League CentralSt. Louis struggled to field a healthy lineup in 2007 and they have started the 2008 season in similar fashion. Pujols is said to have a serious elbow issue (although his Spring does not represent this fact) and Carpenter is still shelved while he recovers from Tommy John surgery. However, this team is deep and plays in a division where there lacks any real dominant clubs.
The Cards pitching staff is the deepest in baseball. Although they lack a sure-thing legitimate star, each of starting five represent a quality arm. When you also consider the club will have Carpenter, Mulder and Clement back eventually, the club has plenty of options.
Conversely, the bullpen is one that is tough to get excited about. There really isn’t an arm that is particularly good, but as a collection, they are probably good enough. Adding an arm at some point in this season is as obvious of a statement as I will ever make.
Offensively, this is the best lineup the Cards have rolled out there in recent memory. Pujols finally has a power bat to protect him in the lineup, and the deep, talented and young outfield gives promise that this team will be able to put up some crooked numbers.
Major Addition: Lohse and Clement – These two will help solidify the Cards rotation, adding experience and depth. Consider the pitchers the Cards would be throwing out there until Carpenter and Mulder are healthy and tell me this duo isn’t the biggest acquisition.
Major Subtraction: Troy Percival – Kind of the reverse logic of Lohse and Clement, losing Percival will prove as a major hit to their bullpen.
Breakout Candidate: Brian Barton – If the former Indian is given an opportunity, which seems likely, he will make the Tribe pay for not giving him a real shot. Fact is, anyone with that strong of an on base percentage in the minors (.416) is doing something right at the dish.
27 comments Last one added 11 months ago — Leave a Comment
Daniel Wozniewski about 1 year ago
This is about the saddest article I have ever seen written about baseball. Before you write something, do some actual research. Your statements have almost zero truth to them. It would take me far too long to correct all of the glaring errors in your report, but seriously, stick to your day job. What you did here was a joke. And a really bad one at that.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Daniel, everything I reported is factual. That is why I link everything. If you have a specific problem, I welcome you to state what it is.
Keep in mind however, that I do not write my articles for the fan of such and such a team. I write them based on logic and truths. My rankings are based on what I anticipate to occur. Could I be wrong? Certainly, but to qualify my writing as lacking truths is to read my writing as a fan, not an analyst.
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
Thank you for being the first I've read to give the Cardinals a chance (even though you aren't writing as a fan, those of us Cardinal fans appreciate your observations). The one thing the analysts go on is stats, which I love the Cardinals chances. Every year, what they end up missing, is the level of HEART the Cardinals have and the incredible coaching staff that always pulls the best out of our guys. I'm setting a reminder to look at this again in September and hope you are on the money and the Cardinals dazzle 'em after all!
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Haha, thanks Anonymous.
Problem is, I don't believe in HEART or COACHING myself. I believe HEART and a good coaching staff are reliant on team talent and success. If a team has no talent but outstanding heart and the best coaching staff, they are still going to suck. If a team has no heart but incredible talent, they will succeed. In the minor leagues or beer leagues, maybe that would differ, but at this point, talent matters most.
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Nino Colla about 1 year ago
Brian Barton is a stud.. The Cardinals got a good one in him. I'm sad he beat out Juan Gone for an OF spot.. He probably wouldn't have gotten far with Cleveland though.
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Nick DeLorenzo about 1 year ago
it's cool your going out on a limb and all, but just because the Cardinals have a surplus of mediocre and injured arms doesn't make them deep, especially not the deepest in baseball. I mean come on, have you seen any of the teams in the NL West, or the Red Sox or Indians or even division rivals Brewers and Cubs? To assume that Carpenter, Clement AND Mulder are going to come back to form is nothing more than wishful thinking. And also, who excatly is going to protect Pujols. Rick Ankiel? Chris Duncan? hardly Prince Fielder-Ryan Braun or Aramis-DLee.
The Cards have the potential to turn some heads, but the Cubs and Brewers have both superior staffs and lineups.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Nick,
How about Troy Glaus? Colby Rasmus? Brian Barton? This is a much improved team and one that people need to watch out for.
That said, the Cards may have 3 beat up starters but if and when they return they will add 3 top of the rotation starters. AS IS I would take Wainwright, Lohse, Pineiro, Reyes and Looper over any of the starting fives in the rest of the division. Furthermore, they have 8 legitimate starters. EIGHT. There is not another team in baseball that has EIGHT average to above average starters. I'm an Indians fan, and I recognize that the Tribe are 3 deep. A Red Sox fan would have to agree that their rotation is not very stable beyond Dice K, and even then, Beckett is already hurt and Dice K wasn't that great in 2008.
Keep in mind, my comments are relative to competition. Talent wise, the Cards may not have the best pitchers. But when they are facing terrible NL teams like the Giants, Pirates, etc, I think we will see how deep this rotation is.
Thanks for reading, but try and have an open mind.
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Cody Stoots about 1 year ago
You are insane if you think that the Cards can win with that rotation. Carpenter is predicted at the earliest to rear his nasty head in late May to June. Even then no guarantee that he will be 100 percent. Matt Clement has huge upside but he has barely pitched in the past year and a half. Mulder has yet to impress upon me potential Cy Young numbers that he laid down in Oakland, as a Card. Wainwright, Pineiro, Reyes, Looper, and Lohse are all converts to the starting rotation. All are very streaky and if all start bad at once the Cards could put together an impressive losing streak. Who is the closer?
Albert doesnt make it two months. I am sure of it. He will shut it down for surgery and be gone for 6-8. With Albert gone the less than average Cardinals do not scare me with the sticks.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Hey Cody,
Thanks for reading. I have to disagree about Pujols though. It sounds (and seems) as if the injury issue he is 'suffering' through is more media hype then a real issue. That said, he is having a solid month of March and appears quite healthy. Additionally, this is the first season where Pujols is not fighting Plantar Fasciitis.
The closer is Jason Isringhauser. The same closer the Cards have had for years.
You are right about the rotation being streaky, they are. However you look at the rotation from a single perspective of a 'bad start'. What if they have an excellent start? Given the pitchers track record, I would say they are just as likely to have a hot start as they are a cold one.
In terms of the injured pitchers, this is a team with a surplus of pitchers. While I am relying on them returning for the team to be a success in 2007 it is not as if they are tossing in pieces of garbage to man the 5 man rotation. This isn't the Texas Rangers!
And don't forget Dave Duncan. Hes one of the best pitching coaches in the majors and has been known to work miracles.
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Nick DeLorenzo about 1 year ago
i'm just some dude on an amatuer sports page, but this guy knows what he's talking about http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2008/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=3305683
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
I'm not sure what you are trying to say here. The author of this column seems to be stating that the Cards do not need to rush back Carpenter, Mulder or Clement. However, he also calls each pitcher a 'convert'. While each pitcher has spent time in the pen, outside of Looper they have spent the majority of their professional baseball careers as starters.
That is besides the point, but I am simply stating.
As I mentioned, people are welcomed to their opinions. This author agrees that the Cards have a surplus of pitching to make a "trade or two". You on the other hand debated that.
So what are you really trying to say? The author proves you wrong about Pujols not having protection. He proves you wrong about the Cards not having a deep rotation.
With all of this in mind, I didn't project the Cardinals to win 110 games. I said they would win the division. I also said that last years BEST team would have been fortunate to win 73 games in any other division. Logically, that should tell you I'm not expecting this years division winner to be much higher then 85 wins. Thus, as I stated, the Cards, who are vastly improved, are my favorites to win the division.
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Nick DeLorenzo about 1 year ago
Of course you are entitled to whatever prediction you want, and their lineup does provide some hope for optimism, assuming injuries hold off and youngsters pan out. My only problem lies within the assessment of their pitching staff. when the man says "Cardinals' rotation filled with LOTS of problems" that doesn't excatly imply what you are stating. Wainwright is young and on the rise, we think, Looper has been nothing more than mediocre his entire career, as well as the currently injured Piniero. Reyes had an absolutely dreadful season last year and the Cards have been actively trying to trade him. Lohse performed well with the Phils but has been another staple of mediocridy over the years. and then you round it out with guys like Todd Wellenmeyer and Brad Thompson. Just because they have 6-8 average starting pitchers doesn't make them deep, it makes them average.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
I would prefer to have 8 average starters (#3s) then to have 2 average starters and 6 duds as the Cubs have. Or 3 studs and a crew of absolutely dreadful pitchers pitchers as the Brewers have. Consider the injuries to a given ballclub and the missed starts. So if/when a Wainwright misses a start, chances are the Cards will have Carpenter, Mulder or Clement to hand the ball too. Conversely if/when a Zambrano misses a start, who will the Cubs have to hand the ball too? Dempster?
That said, you are welcomed to your opinion on the rotation, I obviously disagree with it (Loopes, Lohse and Reyes at the forefront of that argument). It is interesting to note, however, that less than 24 hours ago you were questioning who will protect Pujols in the lineup and seemed to have changed your tune on that. So how much longer before you change your tune on St Louis' rotation?
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Cody Stoots about 1 year ago
Duncan as the pitching coach is a very good point. He is the best in baseball and him alone makes an average rotation a little bit better.
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Nick DeLorenzo about 1 year ago
the only time i brought up Pujols' protection was when comparing them to the cubs and brewers, both squads have atleast 4-5 proven bats that can compliment each other. The Cards have nothing but questions, are Rasmus and Barton ready? Can Glaus return to his old self? are Ankiel and Duncan legit? Sure, they could be a good lineup, but we know what the cubs and brewers are have.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Your quote:
"And also, who excatly is going to protect Pujols. Rick Ankiel? Chris Duncan?"
This was obviously leaving out Glaus. Thus you were comparing the protection of Ankiel/Duncan to Ramirez and Braun.
In terms of "Glaus return[ing] to his old self" the answer is, 'he never left'. In 2007 he slugged a WHOPPING 27 points below his career slugging percentage. His ISO dipped by 36 points. This, while playing from mid-April on with a major foot injury that has since been cured and has also been directly linked to playing on the field turf in Toronto. Also, consider the move to the National League, which on average boosts a players slugging, even IF Glaus plays hurt all year as he did in 2007, his slugging will hit his career mark. That said, he is hitting the ball with authority again in Spring and looks healthy. I would take Glaus as protection over Braun and Ramirez.
Furthermore, I would (and I presume you and anyone else) take the protected on the Cards (Pujols) over the protected on ANY other team. With Bonds essentially out of baseball, Pujols is far and away the most feared hitter in the game.
Now, consider the legitimacy of the Cubs. Everyone of their regulars got hurt and misses time in 2007. They were already an 'old' team, so what can be expected of 2008? How about as I wrote, "I worry about injuries again getting the better of this team."
How about the Brewers? This is a team that had a roster of players with unsustainable numbers. Offensively their future is bright but I can't see Fielder, Braun, Hardy and Hart repeating their numbers from a year ago and neither should you.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Your quote:
"And also, who excatly is going to protect Pujols. Rick Ankiel? Chris Duncan?"
This was obviously leaving out Glaus. Thus you were comparing the protection of Ankiel/Duncan to Ramirez and Braun.
In terms of "Glaus return[ing] to his old self" the answer is, 'he never left'. In 2007 he slugged a WHOPPING 27 points below his career slugging percentage. His ISO dipped by 36 points. This, while playing from mid-April on with a major foot injury that has since been cured and has also been directly linked to playing on the field turf in Toronto. Also, consider the move to the National League, which on average boosts a players slugging, even IF Glaus plays hurt all year as he did in 2007, his slugging will hit his career mark. That said, he is hitting the ball with authority again in Spring and looks healthy. I would take Glaus as protection over Braun and Ramirez.
Furthermore, I would (and I presume you and anyone else) take the protected on the Cards (Pujols) over the protected on ANY other team. With Bonds essentially out of baseball, Pujols is far and away the most feared hitter in the game.
Now, consider the legitimacy of the Cubs. Everyone of their regulars got hurt and misses time in 2007. They were already an 'old' team, so what can be expected of 2008? How about as I wrote, "I worry about injuries again getting the better of this team."
How about the Brewers? This is a team that had a roster of players with unsustainable numbers. Offensively their future is bright but I can't see Fielder, Braun, Hardy and Hart repeating their numbers from a year ago and neither should you.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Your quote:
"And also, who excatly is going to protect Pujols. Rick Ankiel? Chris Duncan?"
This was obviously leaving out Glaus. Thus you were comparing the protection of Ankiel/Duncan to Ramirez and Braun.
In terms of "Glaus return[ing] to his old self" the answer is, 'he never left'. In 2007 he slugged a WHOPPING 27 points below his career slugging percentage. His ISO dipped by 36 points. This, while playing from mid-April on with a major foot injury that has since been cured and has also been directly linked to playing on the field turf in Toronto. Also, consider the move to the National League, which on average boosts a players slugging, even IF Glaus plays hurt all year as he did in 2007, his slugging will hit his career mark. That said, he is hitting the ball with authority again in Spring and looks healthy. I would take Glaus as protection over Braun and Ramirez.
Furthermore, I would (and I presume you and anyone else) take the protected on the Cards (Pujols) over the protected on ANY other team. With Bonds essentially out of baseball, Pujols is far and away the most feared hitter in the game.
Now, consider the legitimacy of the Cubs. Everyone of their regulars got hurt and misses time in 2007. They were already an 'old' team, so what can be expected of 2008? How about as I wrote, "I worry about injuries again getting the better of this team."
How about the Brewers? This is a team that had a roster of players with unsustainable numbers. Offensively their future is bright but I can't see Fielder, Braun, Hardy and Hart repeating their numbers from a year ago and neither should you.
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Nick DeLorenzo about 1 year ago
I was able to respect your arguement until you said "I would take Glaus as protection over Braun and Ramirez." now your just being naive and you may be the only person in the world who is convinced of this notion. good luck with your predictions.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Keep and eye on Braun this year. Hitting 270-280 (unless he makes some drastic changes) will be extremely impressive. The guy probably has the worst eye at the plate in all of the majors and I wouldn't be surprised if he challenges for the ML record in strikeouts.
Ramirez is nice but doesn't have the power that Glaus does. Forgetting that Glaus has hit more then 35 home runs in his career in four seasons must be easy.
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Jeff Allen about 1 year ago
Although the Reds have great prospects, they can't be counted on too heavily. It's rare enough that one rookie comes into the major leagues and tears it up, let alone five all at the same time on the same team (Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Bruce, Votto - not sure if Votto is technically a rookie). Bruce is starting in AAA, much to the dismay of many Reds fans. Is this just Dusty being Dusty? I don't know. I'm sure we'll see Jay Bruce sooner rather than later.
I think the Reds rotation looks excellent two or three years down the road barring injuries, but statistically I expect them to barely improve upon last year. Rookies inevitably struggle, and I expect the same from the Reds rookies. In a perfect world, they'd come in and just start schooling major league hitters, but more realistically I'll be satisfied if they all stay healthy and rarely miss starts. They need to get some innings under their belt.
The bullpen is better with Weathers in a setup role and Cordero closing, even though the Reds have no business paying a closer $46 million. Gary Majewski is certainly not the Reds setup guy. It's an absolute travesty that this guy is cut a paycheck. He might be the most hated player in Cincinnati these days. The guy has been pounded more than Paris Hilton since he arrived in Cincinnati. Billy Bray was supposed to be the gem of that trade, but injuries have stifled his growth and I hope he can stay healthy and make some progress. I'm pretty hopeful that Jared Burton can repeat last year's performance. All in all, I like the improvements to the bullpen. I question the amount of money they threw at a closer, but I'm glad they got one.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
I think Reds fans need to give Majewski a chance. He hasn't been healthy since coming to the team and has been incredibly unlucky. Lets see what he does as a healthy pitcher in 2008.
The rotation should be fine and although I do not have numbers to back me up, I would suggest that rookie pitchers are superior to rookie hitters at the start of their careers. The reason behind that is because pitchers may get by on doing something unique (see Willis or Zito) and certain flaws, such as throwing too many first pitch fastballs, tipping pitches, or other trends are picked up on and then hammered. Hitters on the other hand have to LEARN everything from scratch. I once read that hitters are baffled by the pitches they see in counts that favor them. Instead of being guaranteed a 2-0 fastball, oftentimes they will be presented with some breaking pitch.
Also, I believe Votto is a polished enough hitter and had a nice enough debut where he should be able to hold his own, or at least perform up to the levels of the pathetic 1B performance the Reds received in 2007. I also anticipate major strides from Encarnacion.
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Paul Copeland about 1 year ago
That's interesting, but if it wasn't for a rain out Monday, the Cardinals would have swept the Rockies who were the NL champions of last season. They then followed that series with a sweep against the Nationals. The Cardinals are not quite as dead as you think.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Paul,
I have the Cards winning the division. So I'm not sure what you are referencing here.
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Paul Copeland about 1 year ago
It was that you counted the division as 'zero threat' to everyone else. We won our first few games against other division's teams.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
The division as a whole still is of no threat to represent the NL in the World Series. That said, the NL shouldn't even be in the WS this year, so I suppose I should have suggested that.
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Brandon Heikoop 11 months ago
Just to check in with everyone at the All Star Break:
- Troy Glaus is having one of the strongest seasons of his career,
- Pujols hasn't suffered an arm related injury, and
- The Cards are in 2nd place while the Cubs haven't had the injury issues I anticipated.
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