I’m calling it, right here, right now. The National League Central will pose zero threat to the other divisions in baseball. There is not a team in this division that should strike fear in the eyes of an opponent for a three game series, let alone in October. Last year, the division-winning Cubs would have finished no better then third in any of the other divisions in baseball, doing so in a division where half of the teams finished with only 73 victories.
National League CentralSt. Louis struggled to field a healthy lineup in 2007 and they have started the 2008 season in similar fashion. Pujols is said to have a serious elbow issue (although his Spring does not represent this fact) and Carpenter is still shelved while he recovers from Tommy John surgery. However, this team is deep and plays in a division where there lacks any real dominant clubs.
The Cards pitching staff is the deepest in baseball. Although they lack a sure-thing legitimate star, each of starting five represent a quality arm. When you also consider the club will have Carpenter, Mulder and Clement back eventually, the club has plenty of options.
Conversely, the bullpen is one that is tough to get excited about. There really isn’t an arm that is particularly good, but as a collection, they are probably good enough. Adding an arm at some point in this season is as obvious of a statement as I will ever make.
Offensively, this is the best lineup the Cards have rolled out there in recent memory. Pujols finally has a power bat to protect him in the lineup, and the deep, talented and young outfield gives promise that this team will be able to put up some crooked numbers.
Major Addition: Lohse and Clement – These two will help solidify the Cards rotation, adding experience and depth. Consider the pitchers the Cards would be throwing out there until Carpenter and Mulder are healthy and tell me this duo isn’t the biggest acquisition.
Major Subtraction: Troy Percival – Kind of the reverse logic of Lohse and Clement, losing Percival will prove as a major hit to their bullpen.
Breakout Candidate: Brian Barton – If the former Indian is given an opportunity, which seems likely, he will make the Tribe pay for not giving him a real shot. Fact is, anyone with that strong of an on base percentage in the minors (.416) is doing something right at the dish.
What a collection of young talent! The Brew crew has two formidable MVP candidates and others on the verge of breaking out. The rotation and bullpen are both deep and strong. Another thing people cannot underestimate is the strides they will make defensively. Consider in 2007 that Ryan Braun made a spectacular 26 errors, his replacement, Bill Hall, made 7 fewer in 2006 as a short stop and third basemen (while playing in more games). Furthermore, consider the addition of Mike Cameron, one of the best center fielders in the majors. Milwaukee ranked 25th in the majors in Defensive Zone Efficiency (a Baseball Prospectus statistic), at worst, the team will be in the top 20.
The bullpen appears to be one of the best, on paper that is. However, if there are any slip ups from Gagne or Turnbow, they have strong core behind them with Torres and Riske. Having that many pitchers with the track record of a closer and the ability to be a strong stopper is something that no other team has. Add in further depth, and as I will mention, run-offs form the rotation, this pen is ready for a long Summer’s battle.
Possessing a rotation that is as young and deep as the one the Brewer’s own is incredible. Had the team not shelled out big bucks for Suppan prior to last season, I would allow the argument that they have the best five in the majors. Alas, they did, and no matter how he performs, Suppan will get the ball every fifth day. Aside from that, Parra (whom I am the biggest supporter of) and Gallardo will give Central team’s nightmares all season long. Unfortunately, I believe Parra will begin the year in the bullpen and have a Liriano-like start to his career.
Young and deep, am I repeating myself? With a batting lineup full of potent weapons, the Brewers are going to out slug most teams in the National League. In fact, they may very well come close to performing at the level of an American League team. They have offensive weapons all over the diamond and only poor plate discipline can keep this club from making a serious impact in 2008.
Major Addition: Mike Cameron – The trickle down effect that Cameron will have defensively will presumably go unnoticed, although it shouldn’t. It will be the offensive leadership that Cameron will bring to the top of the batting order.
Major Subtraction: Johnny Estrada – Apparently I have a man-crush on Johnny, but I hate the fact that they replaced him with Kendall. Maybe for team chemistry it will make a difference, but Kendall is absolutely dreadful at all aspects of the game.
Breakout Candidate: Manny Parra – No, he is not even a candidate. Manny is my LOCK to breakout. Even before he was having a downright dominating Spring, I wrote about how much I expected out of the kid in 2008. That has not changed at all; in fact, he is starting to raise eyebrows all over now.
3. Chicago Cubs
Shouldn’t last years division winners who improved their team be higher on this list? Sure, you can put them there. But the fact is, I’m not sold on their rotation and I worry about injuries again getting the better of this team.
The bullpen should again be strong for the Cubs as they have three pitchers who are all capable of shutting the door at any point and time. Injuries must be a concern as Howry is getting up there in age and Wood is Wood (or some sort of other very brittle fiber).
Like the Brewer and Cardinals, the Cubs have depth in the starting rotation, which will result in either a trade, or a simple shuffling of arms. The problem, it doesn’t look as though the Cubs have that every fifth day ace. Most would have agreed that Zambrano was it entering 2007, but Rich Hill appears to be the better bet in 2008. However, I worry about Hills durability, as he seems to have issues going deep into games.
Offensively, the Cubs are stacked. But they are also getting up there in age and are quite brittle. Only one player played in 150 or more games in 2007. In addition to that, the club is below average in getting on base. The addition of Fukudome will undoubtedly assist in that area, but coming off of elbow surgery at age 31 is not the most appealing formula in my opinion.
Major Addition: Kosuke Fukudome – Right field has not been the definition of stability for the Cubs over the last few years. However, Fukudome’s Japanese League numbers look eerily similar to that of Kaz Matsui. Either way, the addition should make a noticeable improvement to the Cubs.
Major Subtraction: Passing of Time – While not old, this team has shown its age in recent years with the amount of games missed.
Breakout Candidate: Carlos Marmol – This kid technically broke out in 2007, but I believe this is the year he truly puts his name on the map. The Cubs would have been served well in bringing in a veteran closer to mentor Marmol.
I actually REALLY like this team. I think they have a talented and deep rotation that is capable of big things. They of course have some outstanding power with an interesting core of youth on both sides of the ball. If this team is managed correctly (which is the same burning question everyone is asking) the Reds could easily be fighting it out with the Brewers for second in the division.
As mentioned, the rotation is talented and deep. It also has a great deal of youth on its side, which bodes well for potential breakouts. Harang and Arroyo will be top of the rotation innings eaters who will put up above league average numbers (at least combined). The wild cards are in the remainder of the rotation where the future of the Reds organization will prove whether or not they are for real. Cueto has been brilliant thus far in spring training, Volquez has been better then expected and Bailey is still trying to adjust to the majors. Currently, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus has them ranked Volquez, Cueto and Bailey, so it will be interesting to see how things pan out, although it is just as likely that all three do not make the Opening Day rotation as even one or two do. This is Dusty’s team after all.
The bullpen will get a substantial boost with the arrival of Francisco “That’s fun to say!” Cordero. This unit is fairly deep with a nice amount of options to set up Cordero. I personally look for Majewski to take over a primary set up role with the club and to prove his worth after the Reds paid a lot to bring him to Cincinnati in 2006. With that said the Reds have their best bullpen in years and will finally have no issues in handing a lead to it. Although, this is Dusty’s team!
Offensively, this club has as much power as anyone in the league. The most impressive part of that is how young they are. In fact, outside of Griffey Jr. the Reds have a lineup of hitters whom are still in their primes. If you also consider super-prospect Jay Bruce, the Reds are in perfect condition for some very positive progress. The most interesting battle going on for the Reds this season is going on between Freel and Dusty. It will be fun to see what trades the Reds make this season in an attempt to win it all.
Major Addition: Francisco Cordero – Even if Francisco is not the closer he is being paid to be, the affect he will have on the rest of the bullpen will make him worth every penny.
Major Subtraction: Josh Hamilton – By default, he is the Red’s biggest loss. Admittedly, the Reds will benefit more from trading away Hamilton, then if they would have kept him around. That said, with Griffey’s age and Dunn’s expiring contract, the Reds may have been better served biting the bullet this season given the ballpark they play in.
Breakout Candidate: Edinson Volquez – While most are hot on Cueto breaking camp with the team or feel this is the year for Encarnacion (I am among them), I feel Volquez is going to go under the radar and have a very surprising season for the Reds. In fact, I’m thinking he’ll have a Fuasto Carmona like impact.
If one wanted to make an argument that the ‘Stros is built in the same way that the Cubs are, I would not debate that person. Truth be told, I considered ranking the Astros as the forth best team in the division, with the Cubs being fifth and the Reds jumping to third. Alas, I cannot dodge a wrench. That said the Astros are old, REAL old, and weak defensively—REALLY weak.
Their pitching staff is one of the worst in the majors. They have an ace in Roy Oswalt, and that is essentially it. The remainder of their players can, at best, be defined as spare parts and would most likely have a tough time making the rotation of any other ball club. Consider for a moment, the Astros’ third best starter, Shawn Chacon. I personally like Chacon, but for some reason, the Astros prefer Woody Williams. I believe that is enough said.
The bullpen is no better then it was in 2007. Swapping Lidge for Valverde was a parallel move, where the front office must have thought that the quantity of saves a reliever accumulates is entirely a reflection of their ability. Similarly, the Astros figured swapping with Qualls and Geary would make their team better-I don’t see it.
Offensively, there is a lot to like about the Astros lineup. However, this is an old club with most of the players exiting their prime. While Bourn and Pence offer some hope, neither are capable of carrying this lineup if age catches up to the stars. Additionally, I am not sold on Towles having much of an impact and I wonder how well a rookie catcher (a 24-year old at that) can organize and handle a pitching staff.
Major Addition: Michael Bourn – As much as I like Miguel Tejada’s bat, I worry that the difference between him and Everett defensively is going to take away everything that Miguel’s bat adds. With that said Michael Bourn should be an offensive catalyst for the Astros as he will take over the role in the lineup that was previously held by Craig Biggio.
Major Subtraction: Adam Everett – Aaron Gleeman wrote an outstanding piece on Everett after the Twins signed him to a one year deal in December. I am in no place to argue against this. Conclusion, the Astros pitching staff will miss Everett.
Breakout Candidate: Michael Bourn – After never a career as a backup and a minor leaguer, Bourn will finally get his shot at 600 at bats for the Astros. Considering there is next to nothing behind him, no matter how terrible he plays, he will get a lot of at bats. I anticipate Bourn to be among the league leaders in steals, accomplishing little else.
The Pirates are still four to five from being truly competitive, not only within the division, but in baseball as a whole. Unfortunately, the work that has been done to the team to this point will be done in vain as essentially every player on the current 25 man roster will not be with the team when they are competitive. Then why haven’t they made trades of players whom are at essentially their peak values-I’m looking at you Freddy Sanchez. If you think about it, are 12,000 fans really purchasing tickets to see Sanchez? Or maybe they are buying those tickets to see a 68 win team that they wouldn’t support a 58 win team? Clean house, and start from scratch.
The rotation is young and talented. However, they are neither young enough nor good enough to carry this team into being a contender for years to come. I wouldn’t expect the Pirates to start shipping off Snell, Gorzelanny and Maholm already, but it wouldn’t hurt to start sending out feelers.
The bullpen, like the rotation, has a fair amount of promise. It is both young and talented. However, the team will not have many leads to protect and will consequently be using quality arms in meaningless situations. This is another situation where the team should begin to look four or five years down the road rather then a year or two.
I can not sit here and write about the Pirates lineup without again mentioning that the club really should be without half of the players they are currently going out there with. In fact, I am still scratching my head as to why the club did not roll the dice on Dallas McPherson. That said, this lineup is too weak top to bottom for an opponent to at all worry about facing them. In fact, this lineup is the equivalent of Mike Piazza’s arm.
Major Addition: None – This is not a bad thing though. Consider the free agent or trades the Pirates have made in recent years that were supposed to get them into the playoffs. Now consider how terrible those moves were and the fact that they didn’t even come close to working out. Not making a move was the best move to make.
Major Subtraction: None – Again, the club kept everyone that wasn’t a free agent. Although they would have been better served making some trades, letting Chacon and Armas walk was an outstanding (and obvious) decision.
Breakout Candidate: Capps/Snell – Both players already technically broke out. However, both still have a lot of room to grow. According to Dave Rouleau, Ian has ditched two of the pitches that allowed for him to have such success in the minors. Look for Snell to slowly work those pitches back into his repertoire and take some major steps forward. Capps, on the other hand, got his first taste at closing in the bigs logging 18 saves. Given the full time role at closing in 2008, maybe he can pile up close to 40 saves and become a trade target of the Astros.
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6 months ago
This is about the saddest article I have ever seen written about baseball. Before you write something, do some actual research. Your statements have almost zero truth to them. It would take me far too long to correct all of the glaring errors in your report, but seriously, stick to your day job. What you did here was a joke. And a really bad one at that.
from 6 months ago
Daniel, everything I reported is factual. That is why I link everything. If you have a specific problem, I welcome you to state what it is.
Keep in mind however, that I do not write my articles for the fan of such and such a team. I write them based on logic and truths. My rankings are based on what I anticipate to occur. Could I be wrong? Certainly, but to qualify my writing as lacking truths is to read my writing as a fan, not an analyst.
6 months ago
Thank you for being the first I've read to give the Cardinals a chance (even though you aren't writing as a fan, those of us Cardinal fans appreciate your observations). The one thing the analysts go on is stats, which I love the Cardinals chances. Every year, what they end up missing, is the level of HEART the Cardinals have and the incredible coaching staff that always pulls the best out of our guys. I'm setting a reminder to look at this again in September and hope you are on the money and the Cardinals dazzle 'em after all!
from 6 months ago
Haha, thanks Anonymous.
Problem is, I don't believe in HEART or COACHING myself. I believe HEART and a good coaching staff are reliant on team talent and success. If a team has no talent but outstanding heart and the best coaching staff, they are still going to suck. If a team has no heart but incredible talent, they will succeed. In the minor leagues or beer leagues, maybe that would differ, but at this point, talent matters most.
6 months ago
Brian Barton is a stud.. The Cardinals got a good one in him. I'm sad he beat out Juan Gone for an OF spot.. He probably wouldn't have gotten far with Cleveland though.
6 months ago
it's cool your going out on a limb and all, but just because the Cardinals have a surplus of mediocre and injured arms doesn't make them deep, especially not the deepest in baseball. I mean come on, have you seen any of the teams in the NL West, or the Red Sox or Indians or even division rivals Brewers and Cubs? To assume that Carpenter, Clement AND Mulder are going to come back to form is nothing more than wishful thinking. And also, who excatly is going to protect Pujols. Rick Ankiel? Chris Duncan? hardly Prince Fielder-Ryan Braun or Aramis-DLee.
The Cards have the potential to turn some heads, but the Cubs and Brewers have both superior staffs and lineups.
from 6 months ago
Nick,
How about Troy Glaus? Colby Rasmus? Brian Barton? This is a much improved team and one that people need to watch out for.
That said, the Cards may have 3 beat up starters but if and when they return they will add 3 top of the rotation starters. AS IS I would take Wainwright, Lohse, Pineiro, Reyes and Looper over any of the starting fives in the rest of the division. Furthermore, they have 8 legitimate starters. EIGHT. There is not another team in baseball that has EIGHT average to above average starters. I'm an Indians fan, and I recognize that the Tribe are 3 deep. A Red Sox fan would have to agree that their rotation is not very stable beyond Dice K, and even then, Beckett is already hurt and Dice K wasn't that great in 2008.
Keep in mind, my comments are relative to competition. Talent wise, the Cards may not have the best pitchers. But when they are facing terrible NL teams like the Giants, Pirates, etc, I think we will see how deep this rotation is.
Thanks for reading, but try and have an open mind.
6 months ago
You are insane if you think that the Cards can win with that rotation. Carpenter is predicted at the earliest to rear his nasty head in late May to June. Even then no guarantee that he will be 100 percent. Matt Clement has huge upside but he has barely pitched in the past year and a half. Mulder has yet to impress upon me potential Cy Young numbers that he laid down in Oakland, as a Card. Wainwright, Pineiro, Reyes, Looper, and Lohse are all converts to the starting rotation. All are very streaky and if all start bad at once the Cards could put together an impressive losing streak. Who is the closer?
Albert doesnt make it two months. I am sure of it. He will shut it down for surgery and be gone for 6-8. With Albert gone the less than average Cardinals do not scare me with the sticks.
from 6 months ago
Hey Cody,
Thanks for reading. I have to disagree about Pujols though. It sounds (and seems) as if the injury issue he is 'suffering' through is more media hype then a real issue. That said, he is having a solid month of March and appears quite healthy. Additionally, this is the first season where Pujols is not fighting Plantar Fasciitis.
The closer is Jason Isringhauser. The same closer the Cards have had for years.
You are right about the rotation being streaky, they are. However you look at the rotation from a single perspective of a 'bad start'. What if they have an excellent start? Given the pitchers track record, I would say they are just as likely to have a hot start as they are a cold one.
In terms of the injured pitchers, this is a team with a surplus of pitchers. While I am relying on them returning for the team to be a success in 2007 it is not as if they are tossing in pieces of garbage to man the 5 man rotation. This isn't the Texas Rangers!
And don't forget Dave Duncan. Hes one of the best pitching coaches in the majors and has been known to work miracles.
6 months ago
i'm just some dude on an amatuer sports page, but this guy knows what he's talking about http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2008/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=3305683
from 6 months ago
I'm not sure what you are trying to say here. The author of this column seems to be stating that the Cards do not need to rush back Carpenter, Mulder or Clement. However, he also calls each pitcher a 'convert'. While each pitcher has spent time in the pen, outside of Looper they have spent the majority of their professional baseball careers as starters.
That is besides the point, but I am simply stating.
As I mentioned, people are welcomed to their opinions. This author agrees that the Cards have a surplus of pitching to make a "trade or two". You on the other hand debated that.
So what are you really trying to say? The author proves you wrong about Pujols not having protection. He proves you wrong about the Cards not having a deep rotation.
With all of this in mind, I didn't project the Cardinals to win 110 games. I said they would win the division. I also said that last years BEST team would have been fortunate to win 73 games in any other division. Logically, that should tell you I'm not expecting this years division winner to be much higher then 85 wins. Thus, as I stated, the Cards, who are vastly improved, are my favorites to win the division.
6 months ago
Of course you are entitled to whatever prediction you want, and their lineup does provide some hope for optimism, assuming injuries hold off and youngsters pan out. My only problem lies within the assessment of their pitching staff. when the man says "Cardinals' rotation filled with LOTS of problems" that doesn't excatly imply what you are stating. Wainwright is young and on the rise, we think, Looper has been nothing more than mediocre his entire career, as well as the currently injured Piniero. Reyes had an absolutely dreadful season last year and the Cards have been actively trying to trade him. Lohse performed well with the Phils but has been another staple of mediocridy over the years. and then you round it out with guys like Todd Wellenmeyer and Brad Thompson. Just because they have 6-8 average starting pitchers doesn't make them deep, it makes them average.
from 6 months ago
I would prefer to have 8 average starters (#3s) then to have 2 average starters and 6 duds as the Cubs have. Or 3 studs and a crew of absolutely dreadful pitchers pitchers as the Brewers have. Consider the injuries to a given ballclub and the missed starts. So if/when a Wainwright misses a start, chances are the Cards will have Carpenter, Mulder or Clement to hand the ball too. Conversely if/when a Zambrano misses a start, who will the Cubs have to hand the ball too? Dempster?
That said, you are welcomed to your opinion on the rotation, I obviously disagree with it (Loopes, Lohse and Reyes at the forefront of that argument). It is interesting to note, however, that less than 24 hours ago you were questioning who will protect Pujols in the lineup and seemed to have changed your tune on that. So how much longer before you change your tune on St Louis' rotation?
6 months ago
Duncan as the pitching coach is a very good point. He is the best in baseball and him alone makes an average rotation a little bit better.
6 months ago
the only time i brought up Pujols' protection was when comparing them to the cubs and brewers, both squads have atleast 4-5 proven bats that can compliment each other. The Cards have nothing but questions, are Rasmus and Barton ready? Can Glaus return to his old self? are Ankiel and Duncan legit? Sure, they could be a good lineup, but we know what the cubs and brewers are have.
from 6 months ago
Your quote:
"And also, who excatly is going to protect Pujols. Rick Ankiel? Chris Duncan?"
This was obviously leaving out Glaus. Thus you were comparing the protection of Ankiel/Duncan to Ramirez and Braun.
In terms of "Glaus return[ing] to his old self" the answer is, 'he never left'. In 2007 he slugged a WHOPPING 27 points below his career slugging percentage. His ISO dipped by 36 points. This, while playing from mid-April on with a major foot injury that has since been cured and has also been directly linked to playing on the field turf in Toronto. Also, consider the move to the National League, which on average boosts a players slugging, even IF Glaus plays hurt all year as he did in 2007, his slugging will hit his career mark. That said, he is hitting the ball with authority again in Spring and looks healthy. I would take Glaus as protection over Braun and Ramirez.
Furthermore, I would (and I presume you and anyone else) take the protected on the Cards (Pujols) over the protected on ANY other team. With Bonds essentially out of baseball, Pujols is far and away the most feared hitter in the game.
Now, consider the legitimacy of the Cubs. Everyone of their regulars got hurt and misses time in 2007. They were already an 'old' team, so what can be expected of 2008? How about as I wrote, "I worry about injuries again getting the better of this team."
How about the Brewers? This is a team that had a roster of players with unsustainable numbers. Offensively their future is bright but I can't see Fielder, Braun, Hardy and Hart repeating their numbers from a year ago and neither should you.
from 6 months ago
Your quote:
"And also, who excatly is going to protect Pujols. Rick Ankiel? Chris Duncan?"
This was obviously leaving out Glaus. Thus you were comparing the protection of Ankiel/Duncan to Ramirez and Braun.
In terms of "Glaus return[ing] to his old self" the answer is, 'he never left'. In 2007 he slugged a WHOPPING 27 points below his career slugging percentage. His ISO dipped by 36 points. This, while playing from mid-April on with a major foot injury that has since been cured and has also been directly linked to playing on the field turf in Toronto. Also, consider the move to the National League, which on average boosts a players slugging, even IF Glaus plays hurt all year as he did in 2007, his slugging will hit his career mark. That said, he is hitting the ball with authority again in Spring and looks healthy. I would take Glaus as protection over Braun and Ramirez.
Furthermore, I would (and I presume you and anyone else) take the protected on the Cards (Pujols) over the protected on ANY other team. With Bonds essentially out of baseball, Pujols is far and away the most feared hitter in the game.
Now, consider the legitimacy of the Cubs. Everyone of their regulars got hurt and misses time in 2007. They were already an 'old' team, so what can be expected of 2008? How about as I wrote, "I worry about injuries again getting the better of this team."
How about the Brewers? This is a team that had a roster of players with unsustainable numbers. Offensively their future is bright but I can't see Fielder, Braun, Hardy and Hart repeating their numbers from a year ago and neither should you.
from 6 months ago
Your quote:
"And also, who excatly is going to protect Pujols. Rick Ankiel? Chris Duncan?"
This was obviously leaving out Glaus. Thus you were comparing the protection of Ankiel/Duncan to Ramirez and Braun.
In terms of "Glaus return[ing] to his old self" the answer is, 'he never left'. In 2007 he slugged a WHOPPING 27 points below his career slugging percentage. His ISO dipped by 36 points. This, while playing from mid-April on with a major foot injury that has since been cured and has also been directly linked to playing on the field turf in Toronto. Also, consider the move to the National League, which on average boosts a players slugging, even IF Glaus plays hurt all year as he did in 2007, his slugging will hit his career mark. That said, he is hitting the ball with authority again in Spring and looks healthy. I would take Glaus as protection over Braun and Ramirez.
Furthermore, I would (and I presume you and anyone else) take the protected on the Cards (Pujols) over the protected on ANY other team. With Bonds essentially out of baseball, Pujols is far and away the most feared hitter in the game.
Now, consider the legitimacy of the Cubs. Everyone of their regulars got hurt and misses time in 2007. They were already an 'old' team, so what can be expected of 2008? How about as I wrote, "I worry about injuries again getting the better of this team."
How about the Brewers? This is a team that had a roster of players with unsustainable numbers. Offensively their future is bright but I can't see Fielder, Braun, Hardy and Hart repeating their numbers from a year ago and neither should you.
6 months ago
I was able to respect your arguement until you said "I would take Glaus as protection over Braun and Ramirez." now your just being naive and you may be the only person in the world who is convinced of this notion. good luck with your predictions.
from 6 months ago
Keep and eye on Braun this year. Hitting 270-280 (unless he makes some drastic changes) will be extremely impressive. The guy probably has the worst eye at the plate in all of the majors and I wouldn't be surprised if he challenges for the ML record in strikeouts.
Ramirez is nice but doesn't have the power that Glaus does. Forgetting that Glaus has hit more then 35 home runs in his career in four seasons must be easy.
6 months ago
Although the Reds have great prospects, they can't be counted on too heavily. It's rare enough that one rookie comes into the major leagues and tears it up, let alone five all at the same time on the same team (Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Bruce, Votto - not sure if Votto is technically a rookie). Bruce is starting in AAA, much to the dismay of many Reds fans. Is this just Dusty being Dusty? I don't know. I'm sure we'll see Jay Bruce sooner rather than later.
I think the Reds rotation looks excellent two or three years down the road barring injuries, but statistically I expect them to barely improve upon last year. Rookies inevitably struggle, and I expect the same from the Reds rookies. In a perfect world, they'd come in and just start schooling major league hitters, but more realistically I'll be satisfied if they all stay healthy and rarely miss starts. They need to get some innings under their belt.
The bullpen is better with Weathers in a setup role and Cordero closing, even though the Reds have no business paying a closer $46 million. Gary Majewski is certainly not the Reds setup guy. It's an absolute travesty that this guy is cut a paycheck. He might be the most hated player in Cincinnati these days. The guy has been pounded more than Paris Hilton since he arrived in Cincinnati. Billy Bray was supposed to be the gem of that trade, but injuries have stifled his growth and I hope he can stay healthy and make some progress. I'm pretty hopeful that Jared Burton can repeat last year's performance. All in all, I like the improvements to the bullpen. I question the amount of money they threw at a closer, but I'm glad they got one.
from 6 months ago
I think Reds fans need to give Majewski a chance. He hasn't been healthy since coming to the team and has been incredibly unlucky. Lets see what he does as a healthy pitcher in 2008.
The rotation should be fine and although I do not have numbers to back me up, I would suggest that rookie pitchers are superior to rookie hitters at the start of their careers. The reason behind that is because pitchers may get by on doing something unique (see Willis or Zito) and certain flaws, such as throwing too many first pitch fastballs, tipping pitches, or other trends are picked up on and then hammered. Hitters on the other hand have to LEARN everything from scratch. I once read that hitters are baffled by the pitches they see in counts that favor them. Instead of being guaranteed a 2-0 fastball, oftentimes they will be presented with some breaking pitch.
Also, I believe Votto is a polished enough hitter and had a nice enough debut where he should be able to hold his own, or at least perform up to the levels of the pathetic 1B performance the Reds received in 2007. I also anticipate major strides from Encarnacion.
6 months ago
That's interesting, but if it wasn't for a rain out Monday, the Cardinals would have swept the Rockies who were the NL champions of last season. They then followed that series with a sweep against the Nationals. The Cardinals are not quite as dead as you think.
from 6 months ago
Paul,
I have the Cards winning the division. So I'm not sure what you are referencing here.
from 6 months ago
It was that you counted the division as 'zero threat' to everyone else. We won our first few games against other division's teams.
from 5 months ago
The division as a whole still is of no threat to represent the NL in the World Series. That said, the NL shouldn't even be in the WS this year, so I suppose I should have suggested that.
2 months ago
Just to check in with everyone at the All Star Break:
- Troy Glaus is having one of the strongest seasons of his career,
- Pujols hasn't suffered an arm related injury, and
- The Cards are in 2nd place while the Cubs haven't had the injury issues I anticipated.
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