Picking a Cinderella: Cleveland State Vikings Face Their Demons

The Cleveland State Vikings-Wake Forest Demon Deacons game looks to be an offense versus defense matchup. Wake is an offensive juggernaut that thrives in fast-break situations, while CSU hangs its hat on defense, with tough man-to-man pressure that challenges every shot and does not allow easy baskets. Each team will try to force its style of play on the other. Below, I list the keys to the game in order of their importance.

Can Wake Run?

Wake, with its offensively talented roster, will look to play an up-tempo, up-and-down-the-court game. CSU, on the other hand, with its defensive-minded focus, will try to milk the clock and slow the game down to a crawl.

Wake ranked fifth in the NCAA in scoring, at 81.4 points per game, and 11th in field goal percentage, at 48.9.

Meanwhile, CSU was 11th in points allowed, at 58.9, and held opponents to a stingy field goal percentage of 40.6.

Something has to give here. Whichever team can control the pace of the game will be at a distinct advantage.

Stealing a Victory

Yes, Wake can put points on the board with the best of them, but are they a highly efficient offense? I say no. Owing to their up-tempo offense, Wake turns the ball over in bunches. For the season, Wake ranked 290th in turnovers, with a whopping 15.8 turnovers per game.

To put this number into perspective, only 40 NCAA Division I teams had a greater total and it's safe to say that none of them made the NCAA Tourney. The Deacons' assist to turnover ratio was only slightly better, ranking 250th, at 0.83, well under the 1.0 level that is typically deemed the low-level mark for an efficient offense.

This turnover weakness plays directly to CSU’s advantage, with the Vikes ranking 20th in the NCAA with 8.7 steals per game. Guard Cedric Jackson alone ranks third individually in that category with three steals per game.

Given CSU’s offensive handicap, some early-game steals that lead to easy transition buckets could have a tremendous impact on the game. Not only would it boost the players' offensive confidence, it would also trigger the crowd to start rooting for the underdog 13-seed, giving CSU the much needed “sixth man” help.

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