The Patriots currently rank 29th in the NFL in pass defense and have given up an average of 285.3 yards per game through the air.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 337 yards with two touchdowns and one interception on Sunday in a 37-31 loss to New England. It was the second time this season that Fitzpatrick, who is an average NFL quarterback, threw for over 330 yards with multiple touchdown passes versus the Patriots.
The Colts have more weapons on offense than the Bills, especially at wide receiver. Luck has a legitimate No. 1 receiver in Reggie Wayne, as well as a good No. 2 in Donnie Avery.
Luck's ability to evade the pass rush and move around in the pocket to make important throws is amazing. The Patriots have just three sacks in their last four games, and there's no reason to think the team's pass rush will get much better against the Colts.
With plenty of time to identify the open receiver, Luck will carve up the terrible Patriots pass defense. New England doesn't have an elite cornerback to cover Wayne, and even if the team puts pressure on Luck, he has the ability to get outside the pocket and make a play with his legs.
Luck had two rushing touchdowns in Week 10 versus the Jacksonville Jaguars, and he has four scores on the ground in his last four games.
Andrew Luck is the most effective running QB this season. He has the highest QBR on rushing plays among QBs with at least 20 action plays.— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 9, 2012
Andrew Luck now has 5 rush TD this season, the most of any #Colts QB in a single season. Yes, more than that Peyton guy ever had.— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 9, 2012
The Patriots should be very concerned that Luck will have a brilliant performance against their pass defense. Unless New England dominates the line of scrimmage, which is unlikely, Luck will have all the time he needs to rack up over 300 yards and throw for multiple touchdowns.
The Patriots will probably win the game, but it will be incredibly difficult for their defense to prevent Luck from having one of the best games of his young career. If you have Luck on your fantasy football team, you must start him this week.
There's no question that the first-ever matchup between Tom Brady and Luck will be very exciting, and it could be the highest-scoring game of Week 11.