Kansas St. should have a strong lead for the No. 1 ranking in the BCS standings for Week 12. This will most likely occur despite the Oregon Ducks winning the No. 1 ranking in both the USA Today Coaches poll and the Harris Interactive poll.
Notre Dame delivered another grinding win, good enough to move up to No. 3 in the BCS standings, and moved closer to a possible national championship appearance. This would likely require Kansas St. or Oregon to lose, but Notre Dame may also have to hold off either Alabama or Georgia following the SEC title game.
It will be important to pay attention to the new vote totals in the human polls on Sunday. Oregon and Kansas St. will battle for the No. 1 votes, and the voting patterns of the past several weeks indicate Oregon will get most of the No. 1 votes.
The following calculations project Oregon getting 42 first-place votes from the Coaches poll and Kansas St. receiving 17.
The Harris poll has been more favorable to Oregon, who could garner 90 first-place votes with Kansas St. picking up 24. Notre Dame will probably keep its vote from last week,
Sunday’s polls will provide more accuracy, and the BCS standings will be revealed 8:30 PM ET Sunday on ESPN.
BCS Ranking/Team Coaches Poll Harris Poll Computers
1. Kansas St. .9701 .9715 .9687 .9700
2. Oregon .9499 .9885 .9913 .8700
3. Notre Dame .9413 .9139 .9200 .9900
4. Alabama .8788 .8861 .8803 .8700
5. Georgia .8205 .8258 .8157 .8200
6. Florida .7947 .7363 .7478 .9000
7. LSU .7088 .6753 .7012 .7500
8. Texas A&M .6654 .6441 .6522 .7000
9. S. Carolina .6203 .5492 .5917 .7200
10. Florida St. .6166 .7769 .7729 .3000
11. Oklahoma .6065 .5973 .5423 .6800
12. Clemson .5897 .6847 .6845 .4000
13. Stanford .5718 .5356 .5597 .6200
14. Nebraska .5149 .4990 .5256 .5200
15. Texas .4728 .4766 .4619 .4800
Why is Kansas St. Moving Further Ahead of Oregon?
Though much of the BCS talk has theorized Oregon will eventually get the computer numbers to pass Kansas St., it appears that for tomorrow Kansas St. will pull further ahead of Oregon.
Last week Kansas St. ranked 2, 2, 3, 3, 2, 3 in the six computers. Simply put, this led to a 2.5 average and .94 computer rating.
This week, with Alabama’s loss, Kansas St. will likely move up on the computer rankings for scores of 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2. This means other than the Anderson & Hester computer (which will keep Notre Dame at No. 1), Kansas St. will move up on five computers and get a .97 computer rating.
Last week Oregon ranked 5, 4, 5, 5, 7, 4 in the six computers. This led to a .85 computer rating.
This week, though Alabama lost, Oregon might only move up on a few computers for rankings of 4, 3, 5, 5, 7, 3. This is because Alabama could stay ahead of Oregon with three to five computers. After all, Florida has remained ahead of Oregon in four of six computers despite its loss.
This means that while Kansas St. could move up on five computers, Oregon might only move up on three computers. This week projects Oregon to have a .87 computer rating, which is not as much of a gain as Kansas St.’s computer gain.
Keep an eye on Alabama’s computer ratings. If they fall only to about No. 4, Oregon will not move up much. If they fall to No. 6 in some of the computers, Oregon could be a lot closer to Kansas St.
Notre Dame could also benefit with Alabama’s loss by moving up on four computers and inching closer to Oregon as well. Though each team’s top and bottom computer score are eliminated, Notre Dame and Kansas St. still figure to gain more than Oregon.
Oregon must keep impressing the human polls.
These calculations are the kind of BCS madness that should not determine a playoff.