2012 College Football Week 11 Picks: Stanford over Oregon State

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2012 College Football Week 11 Picks: Stanford over Oregon State
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If you scanned any of the Pac-12 box scores from Week 10 or any of Oregon's this season, this may not come as a surprise to you. Nine of the 12 teams in the conference average more than 24 points per game with 10 of those 12 squads allowing 22 or more points per game. In other words, defense is optional for the majority of the Pac-12 with the exception of two teams: Oregon State (18.1 points allowed per game) and Stanford (16.6 points allowed per game).

The Beavers and Cardinal both excel against the rush with both units ranked in the Top Five nationally, allowing less than 100 yards on the ground per game. Unfortunately, as is expected, the two schools' pass defense isn't that stout. Oregon State is 77th against the pass, allowing more than 247 yards per game. However, they have picked off 14 passes compared to eight touchdowns allowed. Likewise, Stanford allows over 266 yards via the pass each game but have 11 interceptions with nine touchdowns allowed.

OSU quarterback Cody Vaz took the starting gig away from Sean Mannion after Mannion threw four picks in a loss to Washington in addition to having missed two previous games after undergoing knee surgery.

Last week, Coach Riley said Vaz is playing just a bit better right now (via Fox News). He passed for 267 yards with three touchdowns and one pick against Arizona State last Saturday. He's thrown seven touchdowns with one interception, while completing 55.9 percent of his passes.

As has been the case in the past, the Cardinal are balanced on offense with a passing game averaging just over 200 yards passing and a rushing attack that averages over 166 yards per game. Stepfan Taylor remains the workhorse in Stanford's backfield with 206 carries for 947 yards and eight touchdowns.

We simulated the Cardinal and Beavers 101 times, and it's the Cardinal winning 51.5 percent of the time by an average score of 24-23.

 

College Football Week 11
Matchup Win% Avg Score  
Maryland Terrapins 21.8 22 Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers 78.2 31  
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 41.6 24 Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels 58.4 28  
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 46.0 20 Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack 54.0 21  
Florida State Seminoles 62.4 25 Boxscore
@ Virginia Tech Hokies 37.6 20  
Miami (FL) Hurricanes 62.4 25 Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers 37.6 21  
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 87.1 31 Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles 12.9 16  
Army Black Knights 14.9 15 Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights 85.1 30  
Cincinnati Bearcats 55.4 22 Boxscore
@ Temple Owls 44.6 20  
Louisville Cardinals 56.9 26 Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange 43.1 23  
Pittsburgh Panthers 59.4 23 Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies 40.6 20  
Purdue Boilermakers 41.6 23 Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes 58.4 24  
Penn State Nittany Lions 41.1 22 Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers 58.9 24  
Northwestern Wildcats 43.6 23 Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines 56.4 24  
Wisconsin Badgers 59.4 26 Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers 40.6 23  
Minnesota Golden Gophers 60.4 22 Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini 39.6 18  
Bowling Green Falcons 39.1 22 Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats 60.9 25  
Massachusetts Minutemen 40.1 19 Boxscore
@ Akron Zips 59.9 23  
Ball State Cardinals 48.5 28 Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets 51.5 29  
Kent State Golden Flashes 59.9 26 Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks 40.1 20  
Central Michigan Chippewas 64.4 26 Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles 35.6 21  
Western Michigan Broncos 67.3 28 Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls 32.7 24  
Colorado Buffaloes 24.8 22 Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats 75.2 30  
Arizona State Sun Devils 41.6 26 Boxscore
@ USC Trojans 58.4 30  
Utah Utes 43.1 22 Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies 56.9 24  
Oregon State Beavers 48.5 23 Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal 51.5 24  
UCLA Bruins 68.3 28 Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars 31.7 22  
Oregon Ducks 80.2 31 Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears 19.8 19  
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 17.8 17 Boxscore
@ Florida Gators 82.2 29  
Texas A&M Aggies 26.7 19 Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide 73.3 29  
Mississippi State Bulldogs 28.7 18 Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers 71.3 25  
Missouri Tigers 40.6 22 Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers 59.4 23  
Arkansas Razorbacks 40.6 19 Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks 59.4 21  
Vanderbilt Commodores 48.5 20 Boxscore
@ Mississippi Rebels 51.5 21  
Georgia Bulldogs 86.1 27 Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers 13.9 16  
McNeese State Cowboys 5.0 10 Boxscore
@ Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners 95.0 37  
San Jose State Spartans 72.3 31 Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies 27.7 23  
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 89.1 35 Boxscore
@ Texas State Bobcats 10.9 18  
Idaho Vandals 5.9 16 Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars 94.1 33  
Kansas Jayhawks 27.7 23 Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders 72.3 32  
Baylor Bears 30.7 25 Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners 69.3 31  
Iowa State Cyclones 34.2 20 Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns 65.8 26  
West Virginia Mountaineers 40.6 24 Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys 59.4 27  
Kansas State Wildcats 68.3 27 Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs 31.7 22  
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 30.7 22 Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs 69.3 29  
Tulane Green Wave 54.5 25 Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers 45.5 23  
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 63.4 30 Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars 36.6 26  
Marshall Thundering Herd 70.3 29 Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers 29.7 20  
UCF Knights 76.2 29 Boxscore
@ UTEP Miners 23.8 20  
Air Force Falcons 34.7 21 Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs 65.3 25  
UNLV Rebels 49.0 21 Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams 51.0 22  
Fresno State Bulldogs 53.5 25 Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack 46.5 23  
Wyoming Cowboys 68.8 25 Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos 31.2 19  
Boise State Broncos 95.0 33 Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors 5.0 13  
South Alabama Jaguars 30.7 19 Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green 69.3 26  
Florida Atlantic Owls 34.7 21 Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 65.3 26  
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 46.5 24 Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves 53.5 26  
Navy Midshipmen 62.9 28 Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans 37.1 26  

 

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2012 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension, and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

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