Breeders' Cup 2012: Analysis and Preview of the $1.5 Million Sprint
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I think Amazombie has a real chance to win the $1.5 million sprint, but if you're looking for a better horse, I'm going to suggest some horses that I think can beat the six-year-old gelding Amazombie.
You might call me crazy but I'm going to use Fast Bullet, the four-year-old that hasn't run a race in almost 365 days. The two career starts are fantastic, with both being easy wins; however, it's the last two workouts for this race that excite me.
On October 14, Fast Bullet worked six furlongs in 1:11.2 and then had an even better workout on October 21, five furlongs in 58.3, which was the best of 51 workouts at that distance. Due to the layoff, I won't be surprised if this horse is at least 17-1 at post time.
I like the Michael Hushion-trained The Lumber Guy, with John Velazquez aboard. Four career wins in six starts and undefeated in two starts at six furlongs. In his last race, Velazquez actually came from off the pace to win, which is something that I think the winner will have to do.
I'm also going to use Capital Account, who I would pick as my top choice if this was six furlongs and a few strides. No wins in four career starts at the distance, but does have three second place finishes. This horse will be flying in the stretch but might need more distance.
I can't leave Smiling Tiger out of my superfecta wagering. Anytime a good horse gets the best jockey, you have to take a closer look. Ramon Dominguez picks up the mount for the Jeff Bonde-trained five-year-old. I usually don't like horses that haven't raced in four months, but Smiling Tiger has compiled a steady workout tab in October.
Fast Bullet intrigues me, especially at 12-1, which is what ESPN has his odds at. Bob Baffert trains both Fast Bullet and Capital Account, but he also has a third horse in this race—Coil, who will probably win since I've neglected to pick him.
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