Breeders' Cup 2012: Analysis and Preview of the $500,000 Marathon
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After 45 minutes of looking at the field for the Grade Two $500,000 Breeders' Cup Marathon, I've decided that this might be the most difficult race to handicap that I've come across in years.
I just checked ESPN and they have Atigun as the 9-2 morning line favorite and I wouldn't bet this horse at 10-1! In 13 lifetime starts, this three-year-old has just three wins and one second place finish. The last time this horse won a race, it was nearly six months ago. I won't even be using this horse in any exotic wagering.
One of the three horses listed at 5-1 on ESPN is Worth Repeating, who I also don't like at those odds. Four career wins in 26 starts, including just one in 2012. However, on September 23, Worth Repeating crushed the field by five lengths to win in 1:50.1 for nine furlongs. At 20-1, I would use this horse in my exotic wagering but at 5-1, I will be excluding Worth Repeating.
I think Jaycito is an interesting horse, even at 6-1. I won't be shocked if this horse is at least 10-1 tomorrow when the gates opens. The key for me with Jaycito is that Joe Talamo is the jockey. In his two career mounts for this Bob Baffert trained horse, Jaycito has a win and and a solid third place finish. In his last start, Jaycito closed beautifully and should love the added distance in this race.
I also like Commander, who ESPN has at 15-1. I'm a little concerned that this horse is due a bad race, especially after putting together six straight wins this summer. I expect this horse to go to the front and try to hold on for dear life in the stretch.
I'm also going to use Fame and Glory, the Great Britain horse trained b Aidan O'Brien. This six-year-old has never run on the dirt before but this race has no legitimate favorite and this horse loves distance and is losing a lot of weight from the races overseas. JP Spencer has traveled with the horse and should involved in the stretch.
This is the race where the winner will probably pay at least $15 and the superfecta will contain at least one horse that is at least 40-1. I'm going to use Jaycito, Commander and Fame and Glory as my partial keys in the race. Since I don't really like many of the other horses, I'll probably use Calidoscopio, the nine-year-old from Argentina in my exotic wagering.
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