Breeders' Cup 2012: Analysis and Preview of the $2 Million Juvenile Fillies

Joseph CiracoCorrespondent INovember 1, 2012

Upset Alert in the Juvenile Fillies Grade 1!
Upset Alert in the Juvenile Fillies Grade 1!Harry How/Getty Images

If you're looking for a sure thing on Breeders' Cup Friday, the 1 1/16 Juvenile Fillies race isn't the one you should be looking at. As I studied the eight horses, I think four of them have legitimate shots to win.

The first six furlongs will dictate the winner of this race. With plenty of early speed, the race will start fast and could have a huge surprise winner.

Beholder, Executiveprivilege, Dreaming of Julia and Kauai Katie all prefer the to be on the lead from the start of the race. I wouldn't be shocked to see a legitimate speed battle take place between at least two of these horses.

What concerns me about two of the speed horses is that they lack any history at the distance.

Kauai Katie was very good in her last start, a seven length win at Belmont on September 30 but that's her second longest race. On August 12, she was also very good at six and a half furlongs, which doesn't make me feel about endorsing her chances tomorrow. I think she's talented and will run well, but she's not going to win.

Beholder is another sprinter, who is trying a route for the first time. In her last start, she was brilliant over the dirt at Santa Anita but it was just six furlongs. In her lone start at seven furlongs, she was caught by Executiveprivilege.

Dreaming of Julia is the Todd Pletcher trained filly, who is undefeated in three starts. I do like that Dreaming of Julia has two wins at eight furlongs, but neither race really impresses me enough to pick her. She will run gamely but finish third.

Executiveprivilege will probably be the post time favorite at somewhere around 2:1. I really like how Bob Baffert has continually added distance to her races, with her last race being a super win of over six lengths at Santa Anita in 1:44.4 for a 1 1/16.

I found it very hard to pick against Executiveprivilege but I did. I like Spring in the Air, who is going to be at least 20-1 tomorrow to win this race.

Two wins and two second place finishes in four career starts. That's not why but it helps me to believe this horse can win. The reason I like this horse is that she's the dead closer and I really think the early fractions will help her.

When I'm at Aqueduct tomorrow, I will be using both Spring in the Air and Executiveprivilege in my pick three wagering and trifecta wagering. I honestly think Spring in the Air can run down the entire field and win.