The major conference tournament action goes into full swing today, so not much has changed over the past few days despite some very close and well-played small conference championship games.
Click here for my latest projections through Wednesday's games.
The Last Four In
Texas A&M (23-9)
The Aggies were looking good and are likely still safe, but Wednesday night's loss to Texas Tech has allowed some doubt to creep in. They blew a 20-point lead and allowed Tech forward Mike Singletary to score 35 points...in one half!
New Mexico (21-10)
The Lobos have been idle since my last projections came out, but they hit the floor in Mountain West tournament action tonight against Wyoming. They just beat the Cowboys on Saturday and if they do so again, I don't see any chance they are left out.
Tonight's game with San Diego State is huge for the Rebels. If they lose, that would give the Aztecs a three-game sweep over them and essentially eliminate them from the conversation. If they win, they knock out San Diego State and solidify their bid at the same time.
St. Mary's (25-6)
The good news for the Gaels is that Patty Mills returned and they made the West Coast Conference finals. The bad news is that they lost handily to Gonzaga for the third time and have themselves in a really tough spot should other small conference favorites lose (like Butler earlier in the week). With Mills at full strength, they lost just one game but that may not be enough.
The Last Four Out
Like many other bubble teams, today is a huge day for the Gophers. Beat Northwestern and they are likely in. Lose and they will be sweating it out on Sunday evening.
San Diego State (21-8)
As mentioned above, today's game with UNLV is an elimination game for the two teams. They say it's tough to beat a team three times in one year, but if the Aztecs can't find a way to do it, they are NIT-bound.
The Friars got a tough break when DePaul upset Cincinnati in the first round of the Big East tournament. Another win over the Bearcats would have helped their resume, but instead they had to stage a late comeback to beat DePaul who hadn't won a Big East game all season until Tuesday. They likely need to upset Louisville today to get back in the mix.
The Gators start their quest to make the tournament today in a must-win game against Arkansas. Despite an awful SEC record, Arkansas has some decent wins so Florida can't overlook them. Winning that game alone won't be enough though, but it would be a start.
Other teams considered
Miami (FL), Auburn, Kentucky, Creighton, Davidson, Kansas State, Rhode Island, and Tulsa
Let me know your thoughts at Bottoms@rotoexperts.com, and check back for updated brackets leading up to the tournament. Also be sure to check out my college hoops show on blogtalkradio.com with John Gasaway of BasketballProspectus.com, airing Mondays at 9:00 Eastern.
Listen to old episodes here or search RotoRadio on iTunes.