If you're one of the many fantasy owners who rushed to the waiver wire to pick up relatively unknown RB Alex Green this week or plans to before Sunday night's showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans, I must warn you.
Don't expect Green to average 6.3 yards per carry for the second consecutive week, and certainly don't expect the second-year back to find the end zone.
Houston boasts the NFL's ninth-best rushing defense through the first five weeks of the season, and is the only team in the league that has not allowed a rushing touchdown in 2012. When you combine that with the fact that the Packers only rank 20th in rushing, you get the perfect storm for fantasy failure.
I have no time for competition. We're going to take the hot hand. The first carry will be Alex Green. He's a little farther ahead than James is right now and that's the way we'll go. But we have three halfbacks and we'll utilize all three of them.
In Green, we're talking about a guy that has 15 carries for 76 yards in his NFL career going up against a front seven that hasn't allowed a run of more than 19 yards all season long. The numbers don't lie in this case. The Texans are licking their chops heading into this matchup.
Green has 12 carries for 65 yards in two games this season. But if you take away his 41-yard run against the Indianapolis Colts (seventh-worst NFL rush defense) last weekend, Green has 24 yards on 11 carries this season, which equates to an average of less than 2.2 yards per carry. Seeing that Houston doesn't allow runs of more than 20 yards this season, Green is likely headed for another two-yard-per-carry type of day in Week 6.
You've been warned.
Alex Green is on the waiver wire for a reason. The Packers aren't a running football team nor will they try to be. They have to hand the ball off every now and then to keep the defense honest and to keep Aaron Rodgers alive, but big plays on the ground are nonexistent in Green Bay's offense and rarely happen against the Texans.
I'm not saying that Green doesn't have a bright future in the NFL, but this Sunday night in Houston isn't the time or place for him to emerge as the clear-cut No. 1 RB in Green Bay. Expect Starks and Saine to see some carries this weekend, ultimately hampering Green's production even further.
In the end, fantasy owners will be lucky to get 50 yards out of their newly acquired running back. The Packers haven't had a player rush for more than 100 yards since January 2011. That was more than 21 months ago.
I rest my case.
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