Some of you may have read an earlier article written in which I called Memphis the worst No. 1 Seed in NCAA History. Thanks to those who did.
Some critics said my analysis wasn't up to snuff. Okay, I accept that criticism—I'm a humble guy.
This follow-up is aimed at those scholars, skeptics, and meathead Memphis fans who wanted some further explanation. Here it goes...
1. Strength of Schedule
Memphis' nonconference Strength of Schedule (SOS) is seriously impressive. But their in-conference SOS ranks 101st in the NCAA.
Though they've been tested out of conference, the Tigers essentially play nobody during the meat of their schedule. It's not like C-USA was a multiple-bid league this year.
Memphis can't expect to go long stretches of the season without getting tested and then turn it on for six games.
2. Coaching
John Calipari has quite a resume.
His .750 career winning percentage is very impressive. His 18-9 record in NCAA Tournament games is better than that of most coaches. Calipari has won eight conference tournaments and nine regular-season championships.
But he's never won the big one—not in college, not in the pros. Never.
He's a great coach when he wants to be, but history says that when it has mattered, he just hasn't been able to do it.
3. The Half-Court Game
In the course of an NCAA Tournament, the champion is almost invariably tested in at least one half-court, grind-it-out foul-fest.
This hurts Memphis in two ways.
First Memphis is very athletic, meaning that they will likely have better athletes on the floor than the other team. The other team, on the other hand, will likely have better basketball players.
Memphis has always had outstanding athletes under Calipari, with nothing to show for it. In this case skill will win out over athleticism.
4. Free-Throw Shooting
Free-throw shooting is an absolute must if the Tigers want to win it all. Of the 65 tournament teams, only Winthrop has a lower FT percentage.
Yes, the Tigers shot over 70 percent in the C-USA tournament. They also were never challenged—and had an average scoring margin of +20.3 points per game.
Put to the test in real pressure situations, Memphis may well prove to be a team that gives away points at the charity stripe.
So from top to bottom, the 33-1 Tigers are dangerously flawed. In the event of a nail-biter, fans should have their Pepto-Bismol nearby—because it won't be pretty.
I really hope Gus Johnson is calling that game.
Comments (23) Add a comment »
from about 1 month ago
I couldn't agree with you more. Memphis lost to the one good team they played this year, and I would be shocked if they made it past the Sweet 16. Nice post.
from about 1 month ago
One possession away from a win...and that is disputed because 2 Memphis players came down with the ball in like the final minute of the game that caused the Ten game clincher.
Memphis is a great team and counting them out so early is going to be unwise because the bracket they are in should easily get them back to the Elite 8...
I agree it will be a close game with Pitt, but look back at every team that has won the whole thing...they always have at least ONE game where they've got to pull through.
from about 1 month ago
Agreed, every good team has a game they need to pull out at the last minute, but considering the way Memphis shoots free throws, as Tim illustrates very well below, would you bet on them to pull out a close one? I wouldn't.
I'm not trying to say Memphis is not a very good team, because they are, but the thing I found myself asking all season was, are they really THAT good? Gavin said it best in point #1, Conference USA is not a multiple bid conference. Kind of like Ohio State in football this year with their weaker schedule and conference - all season, everyone wondered just how good they were, and they, like Memphis, ended up losing to the best team they played. As a Buckeye fan, I hate drawing that comparison, but if the shoe fits...
from about 1 month ago
Memphis had a heck of a non conference schedule this year and they played each team in Conference USA a full head and shoulders above their opponent with the exception of UAB for one game...I guess my point is that I didn't think the SOS argument makes too much sense considering they blazed right through the conference tourney. To me, it's not really important the teams that they played, but how they played their game. They played Memphis b-ball and destroyed those teams, they didn't go down to their level...that's showing me a high caliber team ready to do some damage in March.
Regardless, when all was said and done, I picked Texas over Memphis in the Elite 8. Even so, Memphis should be fun to watch. Run and gun is exciting...
from about 1 month ago
Hard to argue with this.
Hopefully Pitt will be waiting for Calipari and Company. Should be a great game, decided by, of course, free throws.
from about 1 month ago
Same old story, nothing new. Read the following blog for an actual analysis on the relevance of free throw shooting:
http://www.thememphisedge.com/2008/03/18/2051/
Oh yeah..."First Memphis is very athletic, meaning that they will likely have better athletes on the floor than the other team. The other team, on the other hand, will likely have better basketball players."
That's hilarious. Memphis is one of three teams in the country that have the best one-two combination of talented guards.
Another terrible article from an ignorant fan who probably watched one or two games Memphis played all year.
from about 1 month ago
I watched many of their games on CSTV. I also saw their games vs Tennessee, AZ, and Gonzaga. The Calpari formula of athletism has never won anythinh of importance. Sorry Buddy
from about 1 month ago
The link you gave is misleading. Number 1: Memphis shoots 10% lower than Stanford. That is significant.
More importantly, however, is that Memphis doesn't have one guy, not even a guard (not even "one of the best one-two combination of talented guards"), that shoots over 69%. In addition, the other teams you listed don't have a Joey Dorsey-ish 39% FT shooter.
Not one player at 70%? Not one guy you can feel confident about with knocking down two FT's?
Rationalize it all you want. The tourney brings close games, pressure situations, and much-needed free throws, and eventually it will come back to haunt them, as it has every year.
from about 1 month ago
great analysis. however there's one thing i take issue with- Calipari doesn't have what it takes. There are LOTS of coaches out there, but very few with winning records. Nearly all of them are called out for that ("he's a great coach, but he can't take us all the way, blah blah blah") until they do. case in point: Roy Williams. Another one: Bobby friggin Knight. there are several examples.
That being said, this isn't the year for Memphis.
from about 1 month ago
MoonDog, I think that's the point. In their loss to UCLA in 2006, Memphis only scored 45 points and shot terribly from everywhere. Last year they were only down 3 to OSU at half and ended up getting worked over in the second half.
In other words, against better teams on a bigger stage, the Tigers have tightened up.
If you aren't predicting a Final Four run for a #1 seed, doesn't that say enough alone about the team?
from about 1 month ago
"One possession away from a win"
And if my aunt had balls she'd by my uncle.
from about 1 month ago
I have Memphis in my Final Four, then losing to UCLA.
I'm a little worried that they won't make it that far...free throw shooting is critical for wins.
I'll have my Pepto-Bismol ready for sure next week.
from about 1 month ago
On talent alone Memphis should make the Final Four. Not playing a tough conference schedule is what ultimately will hurt them.
Tennessee, UConn, Oklahoma were all non conference opponents of Memphis.
Free throw shooting and not playing in close games will hurt Memphis.
from about 1 month ago
Memphis can hang with anyone in the tournament. It's really just a matter of what team shows up.
from about 1 month ago
i love watching cocky dumbasses like yourselves eat there words , that would be final four guys
from about 1 month ago
Hey Gavin Brownstein, the Memphis Tigers are going to playing Kansas tonight in the National Championship. I wasn't sure if you've been keeping up with NCAA basketball lately or not...
from about 1 month ago
Hey Gavin,
Keep the day job because your basketball articles suck.
from about 1 month ago
Hey Gavin,
Keep the day job because your basketball articles suck.
from about 1 month ago
Hey Gavin,
Keep the day job because your basketball articles suck.
from about 1 month ago
Hey Gavin,
Keep the day job because your basketball articles suck.
from about 1 month ago
Hey Gavin,
Keep the day job because your basketball articles suck.
from about 1 month ago
Hey Gavin,
Keep the day job because your basketball articles suck.
from about 1 month ago
I wonder how many anonymous posters are coming back to apologize...
Write a new comment