2012 College Football Polls: Week 6 BCS Rankings Simulated with Coaches and AP

The official 2012 college football BCS rankings to complete week six will be revealed Sunday at 8:30PM EST. These projections are calculated with this past week’s USA Today Coaches poll and using the AP poll in place of the soon-to-be released Harris Interactive poll. Each of these polls consists of one-third of the BCS rankings.

The final one-third is calculated through six independent computer rankings. Each has its own biases and tendencies in ranking teams. Some of these will be noted below the following calculations. For each team, the BCS drops the highest and lowest rankings from the six computers and uses the four remaining rankings for the final one-third score.

The following is a very close approximation of the BCS rankings based on the past week’s results. Following Saturday’s games, fans can anticipate the new rankings, and computers polls with new strengths of schedules and results.

BCS Ranking/Team       Coaches Poll       AP (Harris) Poll       Computers

1.  Alabama       .9893             .9980                   1.000               .9700             

2.  Oregon          .8982             .9512                  .9533                .7900

3.  LSU               .8243             .8997                  .8733                .7000

4.  Florida St.     .8071             .8820                  .8993                .6400

5.  S.Carolina     .8017             .7871                  .7680                .8500

6.  Georgia         .7955             .8319                  .8347                .7200

7.  Florida          .7144             .5986                  .6247                 .9200

8.  N. Dame        .6985             .6203                  .6953                 .7800

9. Texas             .6955             .6651                  .6213                 .8000

10. Kansas St.    .6935             .7119                  .7487                 .6200

11 W.Virginia     .6438             .7708                  .7107                 .4500

12. Oregon St.    .4728             .3071                 .4313                 .6800

13. TCU              .4210             .5078                  .4053                 .3500

14. Stanford       .4186             .3064                  .3393                 .6100

15. USC              .4167              .5315                  .4687                .2500

16. Oklahoma   .3870              .4637                  .3873                 .3100

17. Clemson      .3266              .4244                  .4053                .1500

18. Texas Tech  .2397             .0732                  .0260                 .6200

19. Louisville     .2315             .3553                  .2693                 .0700

20. Miss. St.       .2067             .2861                  .2040                 .1300

21. Nebraska     .1605             .2814                  .1600                 .0400

22. NWestern     .1041             .1369                  .0953                 .0800

23. Rutgers        .0988             .1397                  .1067                 .0500

24. Cincinnati    .0755             .1186                  .0480                 .0600

25. Washington .0500             .0441                  .1060                 .0000

Computer Biases and Tendencies

The Jeff Anderson & Chris Hester rankings may be the most controversial of the computers in comparison to the human polls. In the figures above, half of its scores were dropped, usually for ranking teams too low. These rankings are very favorable for the Big-12 conference, ranking it ahead of the SEC, followed by the Big Ten and Pac-12. It named the Oregon St. Beavers at No. 1 with the Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 8

Richard Billingsley’s rankings are often more comparable to the human polls, but it can be a Maverick as well. It loves Pac-12 teams, ranking five of its schools in the top 15. It likes Alabama at No. 1, LSU at No. 2, and South Carolina at No. 4. Other interesting rankings include Florida St. at No. 13, Florida at No. 16, Baylor at No. 18 and Notre Dame at No. 5.

Wes Colley’s Matrix promotes itself as “bias free.” It has some similarities with Anderson & Hester with its conference rankings. The top three teams are Oregon St., Florida and Notre Dame. Oregon and LSU are at No. 13 and 14.

Kenneth Massey’s ratings also differ from the human polls, but it is rarely one of the computers that has to drop its score. It leads off its rankings with Albama, Texas, Florida and Oregon, but Florida St. is only No. 11 and West Virginia No. 14.

Jeff Sagarin’s ratings, perhaps the most renowned over several years, can be similar to Massey’s ratings. One of its unique features is pure points, which claims to predict more accurately with teams’ scoring margins. Its top five features Alabama, Texas, Florida, South Carolina and Oregon. It also likes Texas A&M at No. 6, Texas Tech at No. 11 and drops Oregon St. to No. 26.

The final computer is Peter Wolfe’s ratings, which has no data at this time, and it is not expected to provide information until October 14.

 

Computer Love

The computers were generally favorable or helpful to nine of the top 25 teams. They showed strong love for Florida, Texas, Texas Tech and Oregon St.

They were friends with Alabama, South Carolina, Notre Dame, TCU and Stanford.

LSU fans may not like the computers last weekend, but the game at Florida will strengthen their score, should they win. They have a great chance at holding the No. 2 ranking with a win.

Computer Hate

Florida St. has been beaten up by the computers because of its soft schedule, the Clemson game notwithstanding.

West Virginia is ranked in the top ten by all but Billingsley’s computer. Their schedule will get much tougher in the weeks ahead, so they will move up with wins.

Clemson, Mississippi St. and Louisville are also disliked by the computers.

One thing is for sure, this weekend will provide excellent matchups in several games, which will likely lead to some chaos in the polls and constant shuffling with the computers.