The SEC Tournament field is all set, and it goes without saying that there are a few teams whose postseason chances hinge entirely on their performance from March 12 to March 15 in Tampa, Fla.
Kentucky (19-12, 8-8 SEC) has ended the season on a four-game losing streak after falling to Florida (22-9, 9-7) on Saturday and, as the Wildcats' NCAA hopes freeze over (for the first time since 1991), Billy Gillespie's seat warms considerably.
LSU (25-6, 13-3), Tennessee (19-10, 10-5), and South Carolina (21-8, 10-6) are virtual locks, but a win in the quarterfinals (they will each receive a bye in Round 1) would certainly make the Gamecocks more confident. Even Tennessee may be just a tad uncomfortable after losing at Alabama today.
Auburn (21-10, 10-6), once an SEC West afterthought, are now the hottest team in the conference after upending LSU on Saturday. Auburn has won eight of nine, the only loss in that span being to the same LSU team they just handily defeated.
Only one seed remains undecided. Now that Alabama has defeated Tennessee today, they will move ahead of Mississippi on a tiebreaker (they beat the Crimson Tide twice this year) and assume the SEC West's fourth seed.
Even if Vanderbilt beats Arkansas on Sunday, Kentucky gets the SEC East's fourth seed on a second tie-breaker (division record) and Vanderbilt will be the No. 5 seed in the East.
SEC TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS
Note: Tennessee (East Division No. 1 seed), South Carolina (E2), LSU (W1), and Auburn (W2) will receive first-round byes.
Round One
Kentucky (E4) vs. Mississippi (W5)
Kentucky lost by five at Mississippi in late January, and they may have their hands full again, probably preferring that Alabama had lost to Tennessee (becoming the West's fifth seed), since the Tide was a team they had beaten by 10 just prior to losing to the Rebels.
Kentucky's desperation coupled with the play of Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson should be enough to put Gillespie's crew over the top on a neutral court in March, but don't bet the house on it.
Prediction: Kentucky 77, Mississippi 73
Alabama (W4) vs. Vanderbilt (E5)
Vanderbilt has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the SEC all year long, but is finishing strong, beating likely NCAA entrants South Carolina and LSU in the past week.
Alabama has finished the season strongly, beating Tennessee in the last regular season game, giving them wins in four of their last five.
This game could very well go down to the last possession, and if Alabama pulls out the win, they will earn a rematch with the same Volunteer team they just embarrassed on Sunday.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 74, Alabama 73
Mississippi St. (W3) vs. Georgia (E6)
State is easily the most disappointing team in the West, and they have dealt with multiple personnel issues and off-court distractions.
Georgia's magical run in the SEC tournament last year (in which the "Dream Dawgs" won a miraculous NCAA bid as a No. 6 seed) remains legendary, but it's unlikely that they have the ability to manage any semblance of a repeat.
Georgia has just one road conference win (the knife that dashed Kentucky's at-large hopes) while MSU has four (including Georgia itself and that same devastated Kentucky team). The talent levels are not equal, but that meant little in 2008.
Prediction: Mississippi State 69, Georgia 64
Florida (E3) vs. Arkansas (W6)
After Arkansas upset both Oklahoma and Texas early in the year, some thought this could potentially be the SEC Championship game.
Florida has dropped three of four but won a virtual play-in game against Kentucky on Saturday. The Gators are 4-6 in their last 10, including losses to Georgia, Mississippi State, and Tennessee (twice). A win here makes it much less likely that they'll spend a second straight year packing for the NIT.
Arkansas could potentially enter this game losing 10 of their last 11 games and will need a win to stay at .500 or better. Florida won by 15 at home in the regular season matchup.
Prediction: Florida 82, Arkansas 71
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