Last year the Florida State Seminoles thought they were national championship contenders.
But they were very wrong.
This year, FSU is thinking the same thing, and with a 4-0 start, the Seminoles have risen to No. 4 in the rankings. And facing a USF team that is just 2-11 ATS in its past 13 home games, bettors are backing Florida State more than any other team in college football this week.
"We are showing more than 70 percent of the action on Florida State, which is the most one-sided action of the week," said OddsShark.com analyst Jack Randall.
The 'Noles will try to push that record to 5-0 when they step back out of ACC play for a visit with the South Florida Bulls Saturday night in Tampa (6:00 PM, ET, ESPN).
But SFU, despite its home woes, has packed a mean bite as an underdog, winning five of seven games outright since 2010 as a pup.
Florida State came into this season with 17 starters back—including senior QB E.J. Manuel and nine on defense—from a team that went 9-4 last year. The Seminoles opened with a 69-3 romp over Murray State, then whipped Savannah State 55-0 in a game shortened to three quarters because of bad weather.
Florida State then began ACC play with a 52-0 drubbing of Wake Forest and last week beat defending ACC champion Clemson 49-37. This will be Florida State's first road game of the season.
South Florida, meanwhile, returned 15 starters, including senior QB B.J. Daniels, from a team that went a disappointing 5-7 last year. The Bulls lost four games last year by three points.
USF opened this season with a 34-13 victory over UT-Chattanooga (FCS) and followed that up with a 32-31 come-from-behind victory at Nevada. But then the Bulls lost their Big East opener at home to Rutgers 23-13 and got beat at Ball State last week, 31-27.
Since starting last season 4-0, South Florida has lost nine of its last 12 games.
These teams have met just once before, three seasons ago, with the Bulls coming away with a 17-7 upset victory in Tallahassee.
Most online books opened this game with Florida State favored by 15.5 or 16 points, with a total of around 54. But as of Friday afternoon the Seminoles had been bet up to -17 at outlets such as Bovada.
The 'Noles are on a roll, while the Bulls are struggling. We'll give the points and take FSU. (Courtesy of PickShark.com)