Laying points hasn't bothered the Texans, as they are 12-3 ATS in their past 15 games as favorite. They have also dominated divisional foes against the spread, riding a 7-1 ATS streak in eight recent AFC South matchups.
Houston passed another early-season test with a solid performance in a 31-25 road win last week over the Denver Broncos. The win brought Houston to 3-0 SU and ATS on the season as the Texans have outscored their opponents 88-42 thus far.
Houston has become a cash cow for NFL bettors with an ATS record of 16-5 since the start of the 2011 season, according to the betting trends for Week 4.
Tennessee started the season off with two straight blowout losses to New England (34-13) and San Diego (38-10), but finally rebounded with a 44-41 win over the Detroit Lions last week (their first ATS win in seven tries). Jake Locker was spectacular in the wild shootout win (378 passing yards and two touchdowns), but his play can’t mask Tennessee’s other problems.
Chris Johnson is averaging a miserable 1.4 yards per carry, and the defense has been disastrous through three games surrendering 37.7 points per game.
Historically, Tennessee has fared well against Houston with a 10-4 SU record against the Texans over the last 14 games. Houston has tipped the scales in its favor recently though with a 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS record over the last seven meetings.
But putting history aside and looking at these two teams as they measure up now, there is very little to like about Tennessee this Sunday. The Titans have tons of problems on defense, on the offensive line and in the running game, and even Locker is still a project at quarterback.
The Texans are a well-oiled machine on both sides of the ball and have the home crowd backing them up this week to boot. 12 points is a lot to cover, especially in a division rivalry game; but if Houston brings its best effort, a win by two touchdowns or more shouldn’t be a problem.
PICK: Houston -12 (courtesy of PickShark.com)