Donnie Avery: Don't Expect Colts WR to Sustain His Fantasy Production
And I'm telling you to ignore him on the waiver wire and look elsewhere for your wide receiver needs?
Indeed I am.
Despite Andrew Luck looking to him often in the first two weeks of the season, there are reasons to believe his production will wane.
The main reason for Avery's eventual regression is that the Colts have plenty of other options for Luck to find in the passing game.
Reggie Wayne is obviously the top option. Tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen will continue to be a big part of this offense, too. T.Y. Hilton is a speedy rookie who was expected to play a bigger role than he has thus far after a big preseason. Of course, there is also the eventual return of Austin Collie to look forward to as well.
Collie is really the biggest factor here. If he can get healthy, he's the clear No. 2 in Indianapolis, and he'll eat away at those 19 targets Avery has seen in two weeks.
Another factor to consider is how much you trust the Colts offense in general. While it looks as though this team won't be afraid to throw it around with Luck this year, how effective they'll be in doing so throughout the season remains to be seen.
One of my hard and fast fantasy rules is to rank players from good offenses higher than players with equivalent talent from mediocre offenses. Part of the problem I have evaluating Avery at this point is I simply don't know what the Colts offense will look like as this season progresses, given how many young players they are relying on.
With Avery, there are always injury concerns. He missed the entirety of the 2010 season with a torn ACL, and he played just eight games in 2011 (and caught just three passes). While he has speed and has flashed reliable hands this season, he's hardly a big or physical receiver.
Will you add Donnie Avery via waivers?
In other words, he isn't a huge threat in the red zone.
If he isn't seeing a ton of targets, his fantasy value is going to seriously diminish, since I don't think he'll score many touchdowns. Thus far, that hasn't been a problem, but moving forward I think there are causes for concern.
Avery has been very good thus far and it's clear that Luck trusts him. However, with so many other options on offense and his fantasy value tied to catches and yards, I think it's safe to project a drop in Avery's production as the season wears on.
Stash him on your bench if you can afford to (namely in PPR leagues), but don't expect him to consistently produce for your fantasy team in 2012.
Hit me up on Twitter—my tweets are still in the Heisman race.
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