The numbers are enough to prove that there's a good reason to believe we'll have a new IC Champion tonight: as the commentators always remind us, Miz has a one-in-four chance of winning.
But perhaps the bigger reason to believe this could be the last night of The Miz as Intercontinental champion is that every other superstar in this match could benefit from taking the gold.
Sin Cara is the man in this match that needs a boost more than anyone else. Especially when you consider what the WWE hoped to get out of Sin Cara as opposed to what they have actually gotten. They need something to put him over the top. An IC Title run could very well be just what his career needs.
But perhaps they don't feel Sin Cara has quite earned it, although he's close. They could give the title to Rey, who could then eventually work a program with Sin Cara. We all know it's coming, and as Rey has to start deciding how to end his Hall of Fame career, he may want to pass the torch to Sin Cara by means of the IC Championship.
Cody Rhodes already had a very solid Intercontinental Title reign. It could put him up there as one of the best IC champs of all time. But no one could ever call him the all-time best. But if he were to get another solid reign so soon after his last, that could cement his IC legacy along those of the Honky Tonk Man, Mr. Perfect and Bret Hart. He'll be around for a while, no need to necessarily rush him to the main event.
So, there you have several reasons to believe The Miz will move on to something other than the top of the midcard.