Is Dustin Pedroia a Second-Round Fantasy Pick?

According to Mock Draft Central, Dustin Pedroia currently holds an ADP of 23.83, meaning, on average, he’s being selected with the last pick of the second round. 

While Pedroia erupted for an MVP campaign in his second full season (after winning the Rookie of the Year Award in 2007), there still is a lot of risk involved in calling his name this early in your draft.

Let’s first take a look at the numbers he posted last season:

653 At Bats
.326 Batting Average (213 Hits)
17 Home Runs
83 RBI
118 Runs
20 Stolen Bases
.376 On Base Percentage
.493 Slugging Percentage
.336 Batting Average on Balls in Play

It was a remarkable season, to say the least.  The average is the first number that jumps out at you, and is one that is easily repeatable.  His BABIP is not out-of-whack, especially given the fact that he posted a .334 in his rookie season.

He rarely strikes out, posting K rates of:

• 2007 - 8.1%
• 2008 - 8.0%

There’s certainly no reason to think that’s suddenly going to change.  Last season, he was fifth in the league.  Two years ago, he was third.  He just has an ability to put the bat on the ball, and with some decent wheels, he hits for a solid average year in and year out.

Speaking of that speed, where did it come from?  Not that he couldn’t run, but in 2007 he had just seven SB.  In his minor league career, he had 12…total!  So, how does he suddenly go about not only stealing, but doing it so successfully?

I would find it hard to believe that he musters a similar season this year, though I could see him barely reaching double-digits.  That’s not a number that’s going to hurt you, though he likely won’t be in the same vicinity as guys like Ian Kinsler or Brandon Phillips.

Now to the HR…Yes, he had shown similar power back in 2005 between Double and Triple A, when he hit a total of 13 HR.  The truth of the matter is that he had started to show signs of a power stroke in 2007, even though it was just five after the All-Star Break.

He hit two apiece in August and September, which would have put him on a pace for 12, not that far off the 17 he hit last season.  Granted, his HR/FB rate rose from 4.4 percent to 7.8 percent, but is that number really so unbelievable? 

While I can’t imagine him taking any significant step forward here, there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t be in the same neighborhood next season.

The runs are really the stat that brings Pedroia his value, finishing eighth in the league.  His monthly breakdown brings an interesting story:

• April - 13
• May - 19
• June - 21
• July - 19
• August - 33
• September - 12

So, the month immediately following the departure of Manny Ramirez, Pedroia manages to go on a scoring spree.  Part of his outburst could be associated with Jason Bay, who obviously had something to prove in his Boston debut (he had 29 RBI in August).

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