Philadelphia Phillies: What It Would Take for the Phillies to Win the Wild Card

Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence and Joe Blanton all reside elsewhere.  GM Ruben Amaro Jr basically raised the white flag at the trade deadline and the Phillies started playing for 2013. 

But something happened along the way as they played for the future.  The Phillies started winning while no one else in the National League has been able to distance themselves for the second wild-card spot. 

The following slideshow is a step-by-step, series-by-series view on what it will take for the Phillies to travel to Atlanta for the one-game wild-card playoff on Friday, October 5th.  The final standings for the last wild-card spot could very well look like this:

1. Philadelphia Phillies  (85-77)  (16-6 rest of the way)

2. St Louis Cardinals  (84-78)   (9-13)

2. Los Angeles Dodgers (84-78)  (10-11)

4. Pittsburgh Pirates (82-80)   (10-13)

5. Milwaukee Brewers  (80-82)  (11-11)

5. Arizona Diamondbacks (80-82)  (11-10)

St. Louis Cardinals (9-13)

The defending World Champs have been treading water of late and clearly pose the biggest threat to the Phillies in winning the Wild Card. Here is a snapshot of how they need to finish for a final record of 84-78:

at San Diego (1-2)

at Los Angeles (1-3)

vs Houston (2-1)

at Chicago (1-2)

at Houston (2-1)

vs Washington (1-2)

vs Cincinnati (1-2)

Wishful thinking:  Can the Astros squeeze out two wins in their six meetings?  Can the Cubs take two out of three at Wrigley?  Will the Nationals and Reds still be striving for the #1 seed and be interested enough to win in the final week?

Los Angeles Dodgers (10-11)

The Dodgers absolutely made the most noise at the trade deadline and during the waiver process, but the results have been iffy at best.  They haven't shown the ability to get on a hot streak and have lost ground on the Giants in the West.

at Arizona (1-1)

vs St Louis (3-1)

at Washington (1-2)

at Cincinnati (1-2)

at San Diego (1-2)

vs Colorado (2-1)

vs San Francisco (1-2)

Wishful thinking:  Beat the Cards three out of four to knock them down.  Then lose four out of the last five series with three of those series against first place clubs.

Pittsburgh Pirates (10-13)

Face it, the Pirates are in a free fall with a 13-23 record since August 1.  They might already be hoping for an 82-80 record just to snap the streak of consecutive losing seasons.  I say they'll get to 82-80, but that's it.

at Cincinnati (1-2)

at Chicago (2-2)

vs Milwaukee (1-2)

at Houston (2-1)

at NY Mets (2-2)

vs Cincinnati (1-2)

vs Atlanta (1-2)

Wishful thinking:  Really not much unrealistic about this finish.  The Cubs just swept the Pirates in Pittsburgh so a 2-2 split in Wrigley is likely.  The Braves taking two out of three at the end of the season might be a reach if they are preparing for the one game wild card playoff.

Philadelphia Phillies (16-6)

The Phillies lost the first game after the All-Star break to fall to 37-51.  Since then, they have gone 32-20 thanks to a healthier lineup and somewhat improved bullpen.  Their remaining schedule is quite favorable and a 16-6 record down the stretch is not out of the question.

vs Miami (2-1)

at Houston (4-0)

at NY Mets (2-1)

vs Atlanta (2-1)

vs Washington (2-1)

at Miami  (2-1)

at Washington (2-1)

Wishful thinking:  Sweeping the Astros is of course possible, but a tall order to sweep any team in a four game series. In their last 11 series, the Phillies have won seven, lost two, and split two.  This has them winning every series from here on out to get to 85-77.

Milwaukee Brewers (11-11)

The Brewers, like the Phillies have played well since dumping star hurler Zack Grienke and have positioned themselves into the picture.  However, I think they are what they are, which is basically a .500 team and that's what they'll be from here on out.

vs Atlanta (1-2)

vs NY Mets (1-2)

at Pittsburgh  (2-1)

at Washington (2-2)

at Cincinnati (1-2)

vs Houston (2-1)

vs San Diego (2-1)

Wishful thinking:  They very easily can take two of three from the Mets and possibly sweep the Astros.  That would put them at 13-9 and a final record of 82-80.

Arizona Diamondbacks (11-10)

Like the Brewers, another 2011 playoff team mired in mediocrity.  The Diamondbacks have just two games against teams they are competing against for the final playoff spot and that's vs the Dodgers.  They'll need a lot of help to get into the picture.

vs Los Angeles (1-1)

vs San Francisco (1-2)

vs San Diego (2-1)

at Colorado (2-2)

at San Francisco (1-2)

vs Chicago (2-1)

vs Colorado (2-1)

Wishful thinking:  Favorable schedule besides LA/SF.  Just not enough consistency from the D-Backs for them to do much better than 11-10 the rest of the way out.

October 5, 2012 Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, NL Wild Card

What a better way to send Chipper off to wait for the Hall of Fame to call his number—a one-game playoff vs. the Phillies with the winner staying home to play either the Reds or the Nationals for games one and two of the NLDS. 

The Braves will have cruised into the game and will probably go with Kris Medlen to get them through to the next round.  The Phillies will have busted their tails and exhausted all measures just for the right to play. 

However, if things stay the same, Cole Hamels would be in line to start that game.  Hamels vs. Medlen?  One-game playoff?  I'll take my chances.

It all seems unlikely, but when looking at the team's remaining schedules, it is realistically...possible.