NBA Teams of Interest: Celtics and Pistons

NBA Teams of Interest

by Chris Arena, www.sportsinsights.com

Each week, we're going to take a look at a few teams around The Association that we think deserve extra consideration. We will not be giving picks; however, we believe this information can help the prudent bettor looking for that extra bit of information to help them make a more informed decision on upcoming games.

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Boston Celtics

The Celtics are a difficult team to analyze right now, especially from a gambling standpoint. Usually when a major player, like Kevin Garnett, becomes injured, I like to look at his replacement and project how much of a downgrade he will be, and then apply that to the team's success as a whole.

Well, I don't know that there can be a bigger downgrade that Kevin Garnett to Brian Scalabrine/Glen "Big Baby" Davis, yet the Celtics seem almost entirely unaffected. Sure, they lost a close game to the Clippers after convincing wins at Phoenix and Denver, but that game was the last of a lengthy six-game road trip and so I don't consider the upset all that surprising.

To further add to the confusion, Pierce dislocated his thumb in Wednesday's game and may miss some time in order to heal, or at the very least, play through the injury with decreased effectiveness. The puzzle we need to solve is this: are the Celtics more or less affected by these injuries in reality than the sportsbooks and the public believe them to be, as lines are set and moved in the sports betting marketplace?

There's no better way to predict the future than examining the past, so let's take a look at how the Celtics were valued coming off of KG's injury. In their first game post-KG, the Celtics were 1.5 point underdogs at Phoenix and won the game outright by 20 points. In the second game post-KG, Boston were one-point road favorites and beat Denver by 38 points.

In their third game post-KG, the C's lost by two despite being 10 point road favorites at the LA Clippers. What would these lines have looked like without KG's injury? Well, earlier in the year they were 8 point home favorites vs. Phoenix, 10 point home favorites vs. Denver, and had not played the Clippers previously.

It is generally thought that the being home is worth about three points, and whether you buy it or not it's the best guess I've got and so I'm going to use it. Following that logic, the C's "adjusted" lines look like this:

Looking at those numbers, it seems that KG's injury was worth about 3 points to the sportsbooks. However, it appears that the 3 point "bonus" was scrapped for the game against the Clippers, as I can't imagine that line would have been much higher than 15 or so earlier in the year with Boston at home (their biggest line this year: -17 vs. Sacramento).

It seems clear that Garnett's injury was overrated by the books, and it makes sense, seeing as Boston is a well-coached team with excellent veteran leadership and a vastly underrated "no-name" point guard in Rajon Rondo.

Then, just when the books "caught on" and refused to lower Boston's line against the Clippers, the Celtics go out and lose by two, and I actually believe this foretells Boston being a value bet once again. The loss to the Clippers was a classic let-down game at the conclusion of a long road trip, so I have no problem throwing that one out the window.

Brian Scalabrine will miss at least two games, a moderate loss but he is a player Boston is accustomed to playing without. Pierce's dislocated thumb is a little worrisome, but I expect him to play through it and adjust by driving more and shooting less. On the plus side (well, I guess this may be debatable), Stephon Marbury is probable to play for Boston on Friday and despite his many flaws, he is a very talented basketball player.

Taking everything into account, when the sportsbooks start to give Boston softer lines again, as I expect them to, I would be inclined to take Boston.

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