Pacific Tigers vs. UC Davis Aggies
Free Pick: UC Davis +8.5 (-110)—Wed. Feb. 25 '09 10:00p
This rather big spread between the Pacific Tigers and the UC Davis Aggies seems based more on reputation than reality, as these teams are not really separated by all that much statistically to warrant this line.
Sure, the Aggies are the new kids on the block in just their second season in Division I, while the Tiger are perennial kingpins in the Big West. However, Pacific is having a down year at just 13-11 straight up overall (10-11-1 against the spread), and while UC Davis is just 12-15 SU, they have a superior ATS record (14-9, 60.9 percent). These teams are also tied in the Big West standings at 7-6.
The Aggies have already proven that they can score on anyone, and they have been especially on target the last four games, averaging 81.3 points per game during this stretch. This team ranks No. 23 in the country in effective field goal percentage at 53.8 percent, as UC Davis is hitting on 52.5 percent of their two-point attempts and 37.3 percent of their threes.
Furthermore, the Aggies rank second in free throw percentage at 79.5 percent, which would certainly help in a close game.
Pacific has lost two straight games straight up and three straight games ATS, and they have been only decent at home this season, going 7-4 SU with an average winning margin of +4.8 points—not nearly good enough to cover this number. Also, unlike UC Davis, the Tigers struggle at the free throw line at just 66.8 percent, which should make it difficult for them to pull away late.
Finally, there is a little matter of revenge for the Aggies after Pacific went into Davis and thumped them 80-65 last month. Look for an inspired effort by UC Davis here with an outright upset not out of the question.
NCAA Basketball Free Pick: UC Davis +8.5 (-110)—Courtesy of LT Profits