August is finally upon us. The 30th—and an appointment in Shreveport—will be here before you know it.
Before the season starts let's look at A&M's schedule and determine the swing games.
Every year, you can divide up your opponents into three categories: 1) the games you are likely to win 2) the games you could easily lose and 3) the games that could go either way—the swing games.
A swing game is a contest that is projected to be decided by eight points or less. Your team may be favored or the underdog, but either way, it is by no more than a single score and conversion.
To a fan's eyes, these games are a lock, but the bookmakers, who get into comparisons as a business, see them quite differently.
According to my analysis, Texas A&M's case this year looks like this.
They have five games where they are likely to be favored by more than eight points—I see those as likely wins.
The Aggies have two home games and one road game in which they will be considered the underdog by more than eight points. They could easily lose these three.
That leaves four swing games.
Of these four games, two are home games. If they were played today, the Aggies would be a four-point favorite in one and the other would be even, given their 4.5 advantage on Kyle Field. Their other two games are on the road. The Aggies would be four and six-point dogs if they were played today.
The results of the Aggies inaugural SEC regular season will fall between 5-7 and 9-3, depending on the outcome of the swing games. If you would like to see if you agree with who these opponents will be, follow me!