Olympic Basketball: Why Spain's Loss to Brazil Will Put Them in Gold Medal Game

Spain's loss to Brazil could suggest that the team is a little overrated—that they are not as good as they were touted to be coming into the 2012 London Games. The team, expected to contend, possibly even beat the U.S. for the gold medal, already had a loss to Russia, ensuring that they would not win the group even if they did beat Brazil in their final pool play game.

It is not that Spain played a poor game against Brazil, in fact it was quite the opposite. They led by a score of 76-57 at the end of the third. It looked like they would run away with the win, but when the fourth began that was when the wheels came off. Spain's scoring, somewhat suspiciously, just stopped coming and Brazil went on a 31-16 run to win the game.

Coming hot off of the heels of the IOC disqualifying quite a few badminton teams for throwing matches to receive a more favorable match-up in the medal rounds, it is doubtful Spain would have made the decision to throw the match against Brazil, even if people have speculated as such.

Spain itself has denied any such accusations.

That said, it is pretty clear that were resting their best players in preparation for their quarterfinal match-up against France.

Regardless of how or why Spain lost the match against Brazil, what it certain is that they no doubt have the easier route to the gold medal game. Although at this stage of the tournament, France and Argentina could be considered a toss-up, it is clear that Spain can breathe a sigh of relief knowing they can avoid a match-up against the U.S. until the gold medal game if both teams get that far.

And both teams are expected to get that far.

Spain vs. France

Spain has had some shocking hiccups in this tournament including losing to both Brazil and Russia and only beating the winless Great Britain squad by one point, but nevertheless, they will go into this match-up having a advantage against France.

In the Olympic Games, one of the marks of a good team seems to be how many NBA players are on the squad. Obviously, the U.S team will always lead in this category, but Spain right now is a close second including their strong trio of Pau and Marc Gasol and OKC standout last season, Serge Ibaka.

All three of these guys can play solid defense, especially Ibaka who led the NBA in blocked shots last season. Pau is one of the best scorers on the team and is really an all-around player that will be downright necessary if this team wants to advance out of the quarters.

Also on the team is Jose Calderon currently with the Toronto Raptors and Rudy Fernandez formerly of the Portland Trailbrazers and Denver Nuggets.

France has a few NBA stars of its own, most notably Tony Parker of the San Antonio Spurs and Nicolas Batum of the Trailblazers.

They have enjoyed solid success in pool play, beating a tough Argentina opponent and having their only loss, albeit a bad one, coming against the U.S. They have not yet played Spain however, and this is a match-up that could cause France some trouble.

Offensively, France has a solid core but height-wise they are just like the U.S. in that they lack real size under the basket. Unlike the U.S. however, France does not have enough scoring to make up for their lack of size, something that Spain is positioned to exploit.

Spain vs. Russia

If everything goes as expected, Spain will match up against Russia in the semifinals. Originally on track to face the U.S. at this stage, this is really where Spain's loss to Brazil gives them a huge advantage.

Though Spain did lose to Russia by a 77-74 final score, that doesn't mean that Spain can't beat them in the rematch.

Where Spain faltered against the Russian team, led by NBA star Andre Kirilenko, was in scoring consistency. They blasted off to a 17-point first quarter lead, but after that, their offense nearly went dry, going long spurts without scoring, including six minutes between the end of the second and beginning of the third quarter.

Russia, on the other hand, is one of the teams that hasn't been phased by Spain's size advantage, and mounted a strong comeback after the first quarter and ultimately held off Spain's late fourth quarter push as well.

Inconsistent scoring has been something that has doomed Spain throughout these Olympic Games, but if they get it together and can play four quarters of good basketball, there is no reason to believe they won't defeat Russia.

Although Russia has been a great surprise at these Games and have emerged as a dark horse medal contender, it is unlikely they will be able to beat Spain twice. That said, they do have the ability to do it, but only if they play their best and Spain plays their worst, and having both of those occur is extremely doubtful.

Spain vs. U.S.

And then there is the USA.

It is the gold medal final that most are expecting as Spain looks to return for a chance to pull off one of the biggest upsets since Athens 2004.

Against the U.S., Spain is supposed to excel in terms of their size advantage and formidable perimeter defense. So far, including the pre-Olympic friendly they played against America, they have not really shown this kind of advantage.

Getting to this game with be tough enough, but Spain will have to be at their absolute best if they even want a chance at the upset.

All they can do now though is prepare for France and be grateful that a potential match-up with the U.S. isn't going to come any sooner than the gold medal game.