NBA: News, Notes, and Observations

It's been 10 days since I last wrote an article. For the most part, it's because there hasn't been much to write about. The Rockets are still winning, the Western Conference has started to settle in post-trade deadline and the Eastern Conference is still boring.

There were a variety of things I could have written about but none of them would have been enough to fill up a decent-sized article. So instead, I've decided the whole would be greater than the sum of its parts and just jot down 10 notes and observations I've made over the past 10 days.

1) I might be wrong about the Rockets

During the All-Star Break, I wrote an article about the Nuggets and Rockets being stuck in the middle with no chance to break out of mediocrity. That was Feb. 18 and the Rockets have yet to lose a game since then. As impressive as the Rockets have been during the streak, especially without Yao, it should be noted that only six of the teams they've beat during this streak would be in the playoffs if they started today--including the two No. 8 seeds, the Wizards without Caron Butler or Gilbert Arenas, and the Mavericks without Dirk Nowitzki. That means the only really impressive victories during the streak are the four combined wins over the Cavaliers and Hornets.

A 19-game winning streak is a 19-game winning streak, nonetheless. Personally, I think the streak ends in Atlanta tomorrow night. The Hawks are 19-12 at home this year and  have impressive home victories over the Lakers, Mavericks, Suns, Jazz, Cavs, and Nuggets.

In the aforementioned article, I wrote that I wasn't very impressed with Carl Landry and I couldn't have been more wrong. He's as good an offensive rebounder as there is in the game and it seems like he is the type of player who steps up when the team needs someone to make a big play. He was the first player picked in the second round by the Sonics before being traded to the Rockets for another second round pick. The Sonics don't regret that one at all. Sure they don't.

As far as the Rockets chances in the post-season, we'll have a better gauge of what they are capable of doing in the next two weeks. After tomorrow night's game in Atlanta, seven of their next 10 include games at home against the Lakers and Celtics and road games against the Hornets, Warriors, Suns, Spurs, and Blazers.

2) Reggie Theus is a good coach

Who would have thought the guy who played a coach on a lame NBC Saturday morning sitcom 13 years ago would actually turn out to be a legit NBA coach?

The Kings have managed to stay semi-respectable in spite of some poor personnel choices the franchise has made over the past few years. Compare them to a team like the Pacers, and you'll see that the Kings at least can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

The signing of Shareef Abdur-Rahim and the trade of Chris Webber for Kenny Thomas' horrible contract could have spelled doom for the franchise. Webber's contract would have expired at the end of this season and the team could have either let it expire or parlayed it into Pau Gasol. But unlike the Pacers, the Kings have managed to remain competitive in games because of their ability to draft contributing players and sign others left for dead by their previous employers.

Geoff Petrie deserves credit for drafting Francisco Garcia. I was at Sunday night's game between the Kings and Lakers and Garcia has as quick a shot as anybody in the NBA not named Ray Allen. I don't think that Garcia will be a star but he is definitely a valuable sixth man and someone defenses must pay attention to.

I was even more impressed by rookie Spencer Hawes. I've made fun of him in the past and declared him a bust prematurely but now that he's healthy I can see why he was taken with the 10th pick in the draft. Against the Lakers on Sunday, Hawes was 7-for-11 for 14 points and had 8 boards, 4 blocks, and 3 assists. The only concern with Hawes is whether or not he can stay healthy or if he'll break down like Chris Mihm has.

3) The Charlotte Bobcats are two games out of the last playoff spot 

I wrote an article in January where I mentioned three teams that I felt weren't going to be in the playoffs but would have a say in who did. The three teams were the Kings, Hawks, and Bobcats.

I've already mentioned the Hawks and Kings. The Bobcats, winners of five in a row without Gerald Wallace, now are actually contending for a playoff spot. As surprising as that sounds, a closer look at the standings and their remaining schedule gives us a dose of reality. The Bobcats are 18-17 at home this year and 6-22 on the road. That means only six of their remaining 19 games are at home.

Unless they can win as many road games in their last 13 as they have through their first 28, the Bobcats will not be playing in their first playoff game this year. They need to go 9-10 in their last 19 games to equal last season's record of 33-49. I don't see that happening.

4) The top seed in the West is the Lakers' to lose

After tonight's game at home against the Raptors, the Lakers play four games on the road against the Hornets, Rockets, Mavericks, and Jazz. The schedule-makers did Los Angeles a huge favor by giving them a day off between each of those games. Once they return home from that trip, they play 10 of their remaining 14 games at home. Of the four road games, one of them is in Portland and the other three are all in California, including a game against the Clippers.

Compare that to the Spurs, who play 10 of their final 19 on the road where they sport an unimpressive 17-14 record and all but one of those 10 road opponents has a winning record at home. The Spurs still have road games against the Hornets, Pistons, Mavericks, Magic, Jazz, and Lakers.

5) The two seed in the West is actually better than the top seed

Charles Barkley brought this up on Inside The NBA last Thursday and the more I think about it the more I agree with it. Barkley thinks the Jazz are pretty much locked into the No. 4 seed. So if the No. 3 seed ends up going to the Hornets or Rockets, it's actually more desirable to finish second than first. Who would you rather play in the second round, the Hornets, Rockets or Jazz?

The Jazz are 28-3 at home this year. That means that their second-round series will more than likely go seven games and anything can happen in a Game 7. The Spurs and Lakers are both aware of this. Their April 13 game at Staples Center might be between two teams who are both trying to lose.

Barkley also mentioned any team that finishes lower than fourth in the West has virtually no chance of making it to the Finals. I agree with him here too. Neither of us can envision a team winning three consecutive road series to get to the NBA Finals in the ultra-competitive West.

6) The two seed in the East is actually better than the top seed

What's the difference between the top two seeds in the East? Since the Orlando Magic currently have a 3 and a 1/2 game lead on the Cavs, the difference is having to play LeBron James in the second round. The Pistons won't catch the Celtics and the Cavs won't catch the Magic. That sets up a second-round in which the Celtics will have to play the Cavs and the Pistons will more than likely face the Magic.

Even if the Celtics win the series, chances are the Cavs will take much more out of them than the Magic will take out of the Pistons. Don't think the Pistons don't know this. Don't think they didn't know it when they played the Celtics last week in Boston.

7) There could be as many as 13 coaching changes this off-season

These 13 coaches could be served pink slips once the season ends. I've listed them in order of probability: 

1. Isiah Thomas - Do I really need to explain why?
2. Mike Woodson - GM Billy Knight wanted to fire him at the All-Star break. If the Hawks miss the playoffs, then Woodson is gone.
   
3. Pat Riley - He's already got one foot in the front-office and the threat of D-Wade leaving has to put the fear of God into him.
4. Larry Krystowiak - The Bucks have had six head coaches since 1992. Their payroll situation is awful. It's much easier in this day and age to change coaches than players.
5. Randy Wittman - An 88-180 lifetime record as a head coach. I could have done as well. If the right coach expressed interest or Kevin McHale was fired, then Wittman is out.
6. Marc Iavoroni - It's funny that the Grizzlies brought him in to replicate the Suns' up-tempo game and then the Suns abandoned it. Might the Grizzlies abandon Iavoroni? Who else wants the job?
7. Jim Boylan - The Bulls are 16-21 since Boylan took over for Scott Skiles. If the team misses out on the playoffs, then Boylan is gone. It didn't help his reputation when Chris Duhon missed practice to attend the Duke/UNC game over the weekend.
8. Mike Dunleavy - If Donald Sterling wasn't so cheap I'd say Dunleavy tops the list. He can only use injuries as an excuse for so long. If Elton Brand and Corey Maggette bolt in free agency, Dunleavy might quit before getting the ax.
9. Lawrence Frank - Frank is the Steve Lavin of the NBA. Lavin got the UCLA job after Jim Harrick was fired for lying about his expense report before the 1996-97 season started. By then, Harrick's top two assistants, Mark Gottfried and Lorenzo Romar, had already accepted head coaching jobs at other schools. Lavin was a graduate assistant who got the job only because he was the last man standing. Frank might be keeping the seat warm for whatever coach LeBron wants in 2010.
10. George Karl - If the Nuggets miss the playoffs, Karl is gone. With the payroll as high as it is and AI entering a contract year something has to change. The fact that Karl hasn't experimented with playing AI at the point and starting J.R. Smith at shooting guard might be the reason the Nuggets miss the playoffs.
11. Sam Vincent - All it would take for Vincent to get his walking papers is Larry Brown expressing interest in the job. How much more losing can MJ take? Let's hope he's not contemplating another comeback. His fellow Tar Heel Larry Brown might be the antidote.
12. Don Nelson - If Nelson is gone from the Warriors, it will be on his own accord as he turns 68 in two months. If the Warriors miss the playoffs or get bounced in the first round, Nelson might decide it's time to hang up his whistle for good.
13. Mike D'Antoni - Shaquille O'Neal has a history of getting coaches fired and replaced with Hall of Famers. He did it with Brian Hill in Orlando when they brought in Chuck Daly, he did it in L.A. when Del Harris and Kurt Rambis were replaced with Phil Jackson, and he did it to Stan Van Gundy with Pat Riley. Since the Suns have changed their style of play to adapt to O'Neal, D'Antoni might be out if the team either misses the playoffs or loses in the first round.

8) If the playoffs started today...

The Western Conference would look like this:

Spurs vs. Warriors

Lakers vs. Mavericks

Rockets vs. Suns

Jazz vs. Hornets

The Eastern Conference would look like this:

Celtics vs. Hawks

Pistons vs. Sixers

Magic vs. Wizards

Cavs vs. Raptors

9) Welcome back Suns fans!

It's funny that the Suns fans were ghost while the team was losing every game. Once they beat the Spurs on Sunday they came out of their caves to gloat on Monday. It won't make a difference.

The Suns window has closed. They don't have the ability to flip the switch and play with the type of defensive intensity they showed in the last five minutes of that game on a consistent basis. I expect the Suns' fans to stay out of their caves up until their east coast roadie begins on March 24.

10) Friday night should be fantastic

There are three games this Friday that are shaping up to be fantastic:

Jazz @ Celtics

Spurs @ Pistons 

Lakers @ Hornets

There are only 39 days until the playoffs start. Unofficially, they've already started.