Predicting End-Year Stats for All 25 New York Yankees Players
The All-Star break is here which means we're halfway there to seeing whether or not all of those preseason predictions will come true or not. Of course, it's a lot easier to predict something once you have some basis for it.
We're halfway through the New York Yankees' regular season. The players have enough stats to make a good prediction on where those stats will end up.
Baseball's an unpredictable sport which makes it even more fun trying to predict it. No one predicted that Derek Jeter would be batting over .300 or that Andruw Jones would only have two less homers than Alex Rodriguez.
I'm only going to predict the stats of players who are on the 25-man active roster. There's no telling when injured players are going to come back or how those injuries will affect them just like it's nearly impossible to predict which prospect is going to be called up.
So I'll keep it to the 25 active players for now...
Current Stats: .313 AVG, 20 HR, 51 RBI, .374 OBP, .578 SLG
Predicted End Stats: .319 AVG, 34 HR, 112 RBI, .378 OBP, .574 SLG
Should Robinson Cano keep his numbers up, he'll be heading for arguably his best season in the majors.
Cano has been on a tear all throughout June and has continued it into July. He started off slow, but like always, he's managed to put it all together despite that slow start.
I see his average climbing just a bit higher since he's been able to sustain his June production into July. His home run totals will be his highest ever, but I don't see him keeping up the pace at which he's hit been hitting home runs as he's never hit 30 before.
The RBI numbers depend on how much time he'll see as the cleanup hitter and whether or not he'll be able to increase that .193 batting average of his with runners in scoring position.
Current Stats: .282 AVG, 7 HR, 19 RBI, .336 OBP, .504 SLG
Predicted End Stats: .278 AVG, 15 HR, 32 RBI, .330 OBP, .506 SLG
Eric Chavez is as good a bench player the Yankees could've hoped for. Manager Joe Girardi has been using him more this season in an effort to give Alex Rodriguez some rest by having Chavez field and A-Rod DH.
He's been getting clutch hits for the Yankees while flashing some solid leather. If Chavez could play everyday, I'd put him at third and have A-Rod DH full time, but alas, that's not to be.
The extra playing time should increase Chavez's home runs and RBI totals. His average will slip just a bit as overplaying him might take its toll on Chavez. With a lower average, expect a lower OBP.
Current Stats: 0-0, 2.70 ERA, 14 SO, 1.33 WHIP
Predicted End Stats: 1-1, 2.54 ERA, 26 SO, 1.24 WHIP
Cody Eppley's been a blessing out of the bullpen especially when Mariano Rivera went down. To be honest, I had no idea who he was when the season started. I'm sure most people didn't either.
Now he's one of the strengths of the Yankees' bullpen which has managed to keep it together without Rivera. He's been lowering his ERA with every appearance, which is why I have his ERA lower by the season's end.
He's not a power pitcher that relies on strikeouts, so I don't see his strikeout numbers jumping. The only hurdle for Eppley is how Joba Chamberlain's eventual return will impact his appearances. Should Chamberlain return healthy and close to his former self, Eppley's role might be in jeopardy.
Current Stats: 3-2, 5.23 ERA, 32 SO, 1.35 WHIP
Predicted End Stats: 9-7, 4.84 ERA, 78 SO, 1.38 WHIP
What a year Freddy Garcia's been having. He started out about as strong as Battleship's approval rating with critics. Since then he's been sent to the bullpen to serve as the long man and has been recalled to the rotation because of injuries.
It's a little hard to know where Garcia's numbers will end up because it all depends on his time in the rotation. He could end the season in the rotation or get replaced by the time July's over.
The Yankees have a number of prospects ready to take his spot or be traded for a replacement. For this scenario, I envision him being in the rotation until around September when Andy Pettitte is eligible to return from the DL.
Until CC Sabathia returns next week, the Yankees will be going with a rotation of Garcia, Phil Hughes, Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova, and a revolving door of Players-to-be-Named. Because of that, Garcia will factor into more decisions which means more wins and losses for him.
He should be able to lower his ERA with more starts, but I don't see it dropping below 4.60 unless Garcia is able to pull off a 2011 Justin Verlander impersonation and be lights out from now until September.
Current Stats: .248 AVG, 23 HR, 48 RBI, .352 OBP, .502 SLG
Predicted End Stats: .254 AVG, 42 HR, 99 RBI, .355 OBP, .497 SLG
Curtis Granderson was in a bit of a slump in parts of May and June. Hopefully he's gotten that out of the way as he's batting .280 for July which means his batting average will climb up, but not by much.
Granderson is prone to striking out. He's struck out 99 times so far this season. Pitchers will be able to take advantage of that which will keep Granderson from having a high batting average.
His home run totals will increase from last year when he hit 41. Granderson seems to have a bit more power this year as he seems to be more comfortable with his batting stance this season.
Despite having more homers, he won't reach 100 RBI this season. He has a .243 RISP batting average. That doesn't bode well for his RBI numbers. Combine that with his tendency to strikeout, and you'll have lower RBI totals for Granderson.
Current Stats: 9-7, 4.33 ERA, 92 SO, 1.30 WHIP
Predicted End Stats: 18-10, 4.04 ERA, 177 SO, 1.26 WHIP
Ever since his complete game gem against the Detroit Tigers on June 3, Phil Hughes has been showing why he was once the Yankees' top pitching prospect.
Hughes has lowered his ERA from his April ERA of 7.88. He's struck out far more than he's walked, which is shown in his 4.00 K/BB ratio. Hughes is in control of his pitches now which is why I think he'll match his 2010 wins total of 18.
I expect him to hit some bumps along the way to increase his losses to 10. Overall, however, Hughes will continue to improve and be one of the Yankees' top starters in the second half.
Current Stats: .240 AVG, 11 HR, 36 RBI, .298 OBP, .457 SLG
Predicted End Stats: .244 AVG, 20 HR, 59 RBI, .301 OBP, .452 SLG
Raul Ibanez was once the savior of the New York Yankees when all of the big name hitters weren't hitting. Now that they are clicking offensively, Ibanez has slowly faded into the background. He still gets clutch hits, but the Yankees don't rely on him like they did in May.
With the other hitters in the lineup finally starting to hit, Ibanez's RBI numbers will drop in the second half. There's also the possibility of the Yankees acquiring another outfielder to fill in for Brett Gardner. If that happens, Ibanez's playing time will decrease as he shares DH duty with Alex Rodriguez.
I believe Joe Girardi will rest Ibanez more often in the second half. At 40 years old, Ibanez shouldn't be playing too many games in the outfield. The extra rest will help increase his batting average, but cause some of his other numbers to suffer.
Current Stats: .308 AVG, 7 HR, 25 RBI, .354 OBP, .411 SLG
Predicted End Stats: .314 AVG, 12 HR, 54 RBI, .360 OBP, .408 SLG
Derek Jeter's having himself a bit of a rejuvenating season and has silenced his critics for now. He had a slump in June collecting only 26 hits in 112 at-bats for a .232 batting average.
July is a different story as he's batting .378 for the month thus far. Because of that, Jeter should be able to increase his batting average as well as his on-base percentage.
His RBI total will be lower this season than last season as he'll be busy scoring runs instead of driving them in. Jeter also doesn't have Brett Gardner in the ninth spot to drive in for runs.
Jeter won't be able to hit as many home runs in the second half simply because of fatigue. He was able to have a strong second half last season and should do more of the same this season.
Current Stats: .244 AVG, 11 HR, 22 RBI, .326 OBP, .535 SLG
Predicted End Stats: .246 AVG, 20 HR, 43 RBI, .330 OBP, .533 SLG
Andruw Jones's playing time has increased because of Brett Gardner's injury. Jones has responded by giving the New York Yankees plenty of power off the bench.
Last season Jones hit 13 homers. He'll easily surpass that this season, possibly hitting 20 home runs if he gets enough at-bats.
The increased playing time will help Jones maintain his average around .246 and keep his on-base percentage around .330. He's a shell of the Andruw Jones that was on the Atlanta Braves, but he'll have his best season in a long time despite being a bench player.
Current Stats: 8-7, 3.50 ERA, 83 SO, 1.26 WHIP
Predicted End Stats: 15-12, 3.39 ERA, 170 SO, 1.28 WHIP
Hiroki Kuroda's doing pretty well considering it's his first season in the American League. He started out pitching rather poorly. Kuroda struggled to pitch more than five innings and gave up a lot of hits.
He was able to turn things around in June and should do more of the same in the second half. Kuroda was rocked Friday against the Boston Red Sox, but I expect him to bounce back after the All-Star break.
In June, Kuroda struck out a high number and had more innings pitched than hits allowed. Kuroda is still giving up too many hits for my liking, but as long as he keeps the runs off the board, I can't complain.
His tendency to give up hits is why I have his WHIP higher at the season's end. His 15 wins will be a major league career high for him. With the Yankees offense and his pitching, he should reach at least 15 wins easily.
Current Stats: 4-0, 3.77 ERA, 41 SO, 1.35 WHIP, 1 SV
Predicted End Stats: 6-2, 3.57 ERA, 77 SO, 1.38 WHIP, 1 SV
Boone Logan's role has increased this season with the injuries to Mariano Rivera and David Robertson. Robertson has returned, but Logan is still pitching more innings than he's used to. Last season he pitched 41.2 innings in 64 games but this season he's pitched 31.0 in 43 games.
Fatigue will catch up to him if it hasn't already. Logan's allowed at least one run in his last four appearances. The All-Star Break provides Logan some time to rest up a bit.
All the extra innings Logan's pitching this year will cause him to lose some games and have his WHIP increase. Logan's ERA will drop only because he'll be pitching more innings. He'll allow more runs than he has before, but the innings total will help keep his ERA down.
Current Stats: .179 AVG, 8 HR, 21 RBI, .300 OBP, .348 SLG
Predicted End Stats: .187 AVG, 14 HR, 38 RBI, .306 OBP, .340 SLG
Russell Martin's having a year to forget so far. I don't think he'll have a better second half to make up for it.
Martin is bound to have a hot streak some time this season, but it won't last for long. It also won't get his average over .200. His low average will make his RBI and home run totals lower than usual.
The Yankees are paying him way more than what he's producing. If it wasn't for his defensive value, Joe Girardi probably would've benched him a long time ago.
Current Stats: .205 AVG, 2 HR, 9 RBI, .297 OBP, .352 SLG
Predicted End Stats: .200 AVG, 3 HR, 12 RBI, .293 OBP, .340 SLG
There aren't too many pics of Darnell McDonald in a Yankees uniform which is why there's a Boston Red Sox here. He was claimed off waivers from the Red Sox. He hasn't had much time to prove himself and I doubt he will.
The Yankees will likely replace McDonald by the time the month is over which is why his numbers are so low. McDonald will find a job with another team, either in the majors or the minors.
Current Stats: 0-0, 2.45 ERA, 2 SO, 1.64 WHIP
Predicted End Stats: 0-0, 2.33 ERA, 17 SO, 1.50 WHIP
Like Darnell McDonald, it's a little hard to predict D.J. Mitchell's numbers since it's unclear how long he'll be with the major league team. Unlike McDonald, I can see Mitchell sticking around a bit longer.
Mitchell was competing for the long reliever role in Spring Training. With all the injuries the Yankees have had, Mitchell could easily see more time at the major league level.
He probably won't be up for long since CC Sabathia is due to return in a week. Expect Mitchell to rejoin the team in September when the rosters expand or if there's another injury. Mitchell will be rotating between the minors and majors this season.
Current Stats: .221 AVG, 3 HR, 7 RBI, .284 OBP, .412 SLG
Predicted End Stats: .218 AVG, 4 HR, 10 RBI, .280 OBP, .383 SLG
Jayson Nix is your typical bench player. He fills the utility role for the Yankees playing second, third, shortstop, and even left field.
His numbers depend on how much playing time he'll get. I don't see him getting any extra playing time in the second half unless there's a major injury to one of the infielders. So I have his numbers staying around the same, but by all means, prove me wrong, Jayson Nix.
Current Stats: 10-3, 3.92 ERA, 100 SO, 1.38 WHIP
Predicted End Stats: 18-5, 3.88 ERA, 187 SO, 1.36 WHIP
Ivan Nova had some trouble at the start of the season. Like with the other starters, he was able to fix things when June came around. He's lowered his ERA down from 5.60 which it was when May ended.
Nova isn't ready to hit the 20 wins mark yet. He needs to lower his hits allowed totals first. He's pitched 110 innings and yet he's given up 119 hits. Great pitchers don't give up more hits than innings they've pitched.
Fatigue will play a factor in the second half. All those hits he gives up means more pitches he has to throw. That'll tire out his arm keeping him from winning 20 games and lowering his ERA and WHIP significantly.
He'll still be a good pitcher in the second half. Nova's just not ready for ace status yet.
Current Stats: 1-1, 4.41 ERA, 20 SO, 1.50 WHIP
Predicted End Stats: 2-3, 4.32 ERA, 35 SO, 1.47 WHIP
Chad Qualls is another player the Yankees claimed off waivers to fill a roster spot. He's more likely to stick around as relievers are always in demand and with his track record.
Qualls was really successful for the Arizona Diamondbacks. If the Yankees decide to keep him around, they'll likely want him to have the same kind of success.
Since coming over from the Philadelphia Phillies, Qualls has been pretty good for the Yankees. The numbers I predicted him to have are what I think he'll have if he'll stay the entire season in the majors.
Current Stats: 2-0, 2.55 ERA, 23 SO, 1.14 WHIP
Predicted End Stats: 2-1, 2.48 ERA, 49 SO, 1.09 WHIP
Clay Rapada was bouncing around the league, not really finding any success until he became the left-handed piece of the New York Yankees' sidearming duo.
Rapada is striking out a good amount of hitters while keeping his ERA low. Unlike Boone Logan, Rapada hasn't been overworked so his numbers should continue to improve.
Current Stats: 0-3, 2.55 ERA, 40 SO, 1.26 WHIP, 1 SV
Predicted End Stats: 2-4, 1.98 ERA, 88 SO, 1.12 WHIP, 2 SV
A lot of David Robertson's stats are skewed from that one bad outing against the Tampa Bay Rays in May. That caused his ERA and WHIP to spike, but he's been working to get it down since then.
Robertson's been his usual dominant self ever since he came back from the DL and became the setup guy again. He's not ready to take over the closer role, but that's fine since Rafael Soriano is doing a decent job.
His strikeout numbers will continue to be ridiculously high. He'll also continue to work on lowering his ERA and WHIP. Barring any major meltdown like the one he had against the Rays, Robertson should end the season will stellar stats.
Current Stats: .269 AVG, 13 HR, 38 RBI, .357 OBP, .436 SLG
Predicted End Stats: .274 AVG, 28 HR, 80 RBI, .360 OBP, .438 SLG
Alex Rodriguez's not gonna hit 50 homers any more. It'll take everything he's got just to hit 30. I don't see him reaching 30 home runs, but I think A-Rod's still got some power in him.
A lot of his numbers depends on how much rest he'll get by being the DH. If he's well rested, he should have a strong second half.
He'll have a hot streak in the second half to boost his average and power numbers. It just won't be enough to get them to where they usually are.
A-Rod needs to watch his strike out numbers as he tends to swing and miss a lot this season. He's on pace to break 150 strikeouts and I'm sure that's a number he doesn't want to have.
Current Stats: 2-0, 1.60 ERA, 34 SO, 1.34 WHIP, 20 SV
Predicted End Stats: 3-0, 1.45 ERA, 72 SO, 1.28 WHIP, 42 SV
Rafael Soriano's filled in nicely as the closer since Mariano Rivera went down. It helps that he's had some experience closing when he was with the Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays.
Part of Soriano's success is his ability to get outs when it matters. In RISP situations, Soriano's batting average against is .162 with zero homers and only six runs.
If Soriano can capitalize on that, he'll be able to improve even more and be a dominant closer.
Current Stats: .256 AVG, 0 HR, 10 RBI, .276 OBP, .293 SLG
Predicted End Stats: .244 AVG, 1 HR, 16 RBI, .270 OBP, .280 SLG
Chris Stewart is the New York Yankees' backup catcher. He was brought in for his defensive abilities which is a good thing since he isn't exactly Jorge Posada with the bat.
Stewart's never batted above .244 before so don't expect him to be able to maintain his .256 batting average. I do have faith that he'll hit a home run though.
Current Stats: .262 AVG, 13 HR, 51 RBI, .336 OBP, .477 SLG
Predicted End Stats .266, 24 HR, 94 RBI, .348 OBP, .474 SLG
Nick Swisher once led the team in RBI and helped keep the team afloat. While he's no longer the RBI leader, the Yankees are still going to need him to contribute.
His OBP was abysmal early on in the season. Swisher is known for working the count and drawing walks, but he hasn't been doing that this season.
Instead, he's been striking out at an alarming rate. Swisher is starting to draw more walks and raise his OBP. All he needs to do now is cut down on the strike outs.
Current Stats: .250 AVG, 15 HR, 54 RBI, .334 OBP, .473 SLG
Predicted End Stats: .252 AVG, 33 HR, 110 RBI, .340 OBP, .479 SLG
Mark Teixeira's been battling a bad cough for most of the season. He's also had to make adjustments to his approach at the plate. Those two factors might explain his lower than usual stats.
Teixeira's recently stopped trying to fight the shift and has started to ignore it. There hasn't been much to show for his new approach, but his average has improved slightly.
Knowing Teixeira, he'll have a stronger second half to make up for his slow start. He'll end up around the same numbers he usually has as a Yankee. Of course, everyone wants the .300 average Teixeira with 40 homers, but there's a better chance of The Dark Knight Rises being a flop than that happening.
Current Stats: .260 AVG, 3 HR, 6 RBI, .288 OBP, .520 SLG
Predicted End Stats: .247 AVG, 5 HR, 11 RBI, .266 OBP, .504 SLG
Dewayne Wise is surprisingly giving the Yankees some power off the bench. Despite that, his playing time will decrease if the Yankees get a replacement for Brett Gardner or if Gardner himself returns.
The numbers here take that into account while also giving Wise the chance to get some playing time. Don't expect any surprises here; Wise is just filling in for Gardner.