2012 Home Run Derby Results: Odds of Each Contestant's Swing Getting Messed Up

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2012 Home Run Derby Results: Odds of Each Contestant's Swing Getting Messed Up
Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

The Home Run Derby, sponsored by State Farm Insurance, was conducted on Monday night at Kauffman Stadium. As always, balls were flying out of the park in rapid succession as a crowd of over 40,000 fans, and millions more watching across the world, cheered each prodigious blast.

Detroit Tigers first baseman Prince Fielder clearly showed that his move to the American League didn't affect his performance in the Derby. Sneaking into Round 2 after hitting just five homers in Round 1, Fielder lapped the field, hitting 11 in the round to move on and face Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista.

Joey Bats hit two homers on consecutive swings to move past Los Angeles Angels left fielder Mark Trumbo in a Round 2 swing-off.

Fielder did himself one better in the finals, hitting 12 home runs in the final round, putting pressure on Bautista.

That pressure proved to be too much, as Bautista was only able to go yard seven times, giving Fielder his second Home Run Derby crown.

Now that the event is over, however, the baseball world will be watching to see if the contestants suffer any kind of a drop-off in production over the second half of the season.

Last season, Boston Red Sox first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, the Derby runner-up, didn't hit a homer after the All-Star break until July 30 and then went another three weeks before hitting another (August 22).

Dave Hogg of FOXSportsDetroit.com offers up this analysis of post-Derby slumps.

Since 2009, there have been 24 contestants in the Derby. We examined their stats in the last 10 games before the All-Star break, and their stats in the first 10 games after the break. The difference is surprisingly strong.

Before the break, the average Home Run Derby contestant is performing like, well, an All-Star. They start out July hitting .288 with a .385 on-base percentage and a .535 slugging percentage.

After two days of festivities and another day or two off, things tend to change.

The slugging stars of early July turn into league-average hitters in the second half of the month. The batting average is down to .261, the on-base percentage is .345 and, most worrying, the slugging percentage is all the way down to .419. The number of homers hit by the players drops 38 percent after the break.

So, the numbers do tell a story.

Which of tonight's contestants are most likely to suffer power outages in the second half of the 2012 season?

Let's take a look.

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