Cincinnati Reds: 5 Lineup Changes Reds Need to Make to Reach October

The Mid-Summer Classic is upon us and the Cincinnati Reds find themselves in 2nd place, trailing one of the summer’s biggest surprises in the Pittsburg Pirates and only slightly in front of the 3rd place St. Louis Cardinals.

One surprise for Cincinnati is a pitching staff that ranks 4^th in all of baseball in team ERA of 3.41. The staff has been lead by a steady crew of starters that ranks first in the majors with seven complete games and a dominant relief corps. “Should be” All-Star, Johnny Cueto, paces the staff with a 2.34 ERA, Mat Latos and Mike Leake have turned their seasons around, and Homer Bailey and Bronson Arroyo have been consistent and steady for most of the season.

But another unsuspected and unwanted surprise has continued to haunt the club—they rank in the bottom third of the senior circuit in runs scored, team BA, and team OBP.

The Reds began the season inept at scoring runs and save for only about a four week stretch last month, the team continues to struggle mightily at doing so. It is no secret that the top two slots in the Cincinnati lineup rank among the worst at reaching base.

So, the time has come when Dusty Baker and the Reds must make changes—continuing with the status quo is simply detrimental to this team’s playoff chances. Dusty Baker needs to “man up” to his players and make the changes that are going to hurt feelings.

Assuming the Reds make no immediate trades, check out these changes Baker needs to make to the Reds lineup.

Demote Drew Stubbs to the Bottom of the Lineup

To all the Stubbs defenders I say this—.244/.325/.426. That is his current slash line while batting second in the order this season. Drew Stubbs is a bottom-of-the-order hitter, there is no getting around it.

I stated earlier in the season that his stats would catch up to him, and they have. Since being moved to the second spot in the order full-time, Stubbs has seen his BA drop from .241 at the beginning of May to it's current mark of .214. He hit .225 in May, .219 in June, and is hitting .045 in July—all from the number two slot in the order.

I like Drew Stubbs, but I like him even better in the correct spot in the batting order. Face the facts, folks—you too Dusty.

Place Brandon Phillips in the Leadoff Spot

By default, Brandon Phillips is the best option to hit leadoff for the Reds. He has been decent batting fourth but provides more current value to the team elsewhere.

Phillips has held down the leadoff spot for Cincinnati before and maintained a pretty decent slash line of .284/.341/.453 in 472 AB's there when called upon to do so over the past three seasons. He is also a veteran with the versatility to adjust his hitting approach and adapt to the role. 

His BA during that time alone is higher than the team’s cumulative OBP of .246 from the leadoff spot this season.

The change has to be made. Period.

Move Zack Cozart back to the second spot in the lineup.

Unlike Drew Stubbs, Zack Cozart possesses the mentality and hitting approach to be a number two guy. He, unlike Stubbs, will also benefit from hitting in front of Joey Votto—here is the logic behind this claim.

Cozart has a better contact rate on balls in the strike zone. Stubbs’ high swing and miss rate on strikes takes away from any advantage he may gain from seeing more balls in the zone. Then you add in Cozart's ability to hit behind runners and zone judgement, and you begin to see the picture.

When slotted between Phillips and Votto and given more AB’s in the two-slot, Cozart will prove to be a solid option at this vital position in the Reds’ batting order.

Place Todd Frazier or Jay Bruce in the Cleanup Spot

Jay Bruce leads the team in RBI, maintains the ability to drive in runs, and can provide protection for Joey Votto. It is time for the team to let go of the false belief that they cannot bat their two big left-handed bats back-to-back.

If they intend to maintain this belief, then how about experimenting with Todd Frazier at cleanup. Todd possesses the power and clutch hitting abilities to at least be given a shot at it. I believe that he would continue to produce at his current rate if inserted between Votto and Bruce and that this is actually their best “in-house” option.

Become More Aggressive On the Base Paths

In 2010, the team showed a new-found aggressiveness that Dusty Baker’s Reds had never shown before, pushing the envelope while advancing bases, attempting more steals, laying down more bunts, utilizing the hit and run more often, and attempting squeeze plays with regularity.

That aggressiveness disappeared during a disappointing 2011 and has yet to return. This team has the skills and abilities to push the envelope again this year. However, they are maintaining their manager’s passive approach. 

It needs to change and change in a hurry.

Summing It All Up

Moving forward, the Cincinnati Reds lineup should look like this:

2B Brandon Phillips

SS Zack Cozart

1B Joey Votto

3B Todd Frazier

RF Jay Bruce

LF Ludwick/Heisey

CF Drew Stubbs

C  Hanigan/ Mesoraco

Whether you agree with this lineup or not, you must admit it can’t be any worse. This team cannot continue to run out the same lineup that it has over the past two months—it’s not working and it is not going to work.

Reds fans need to be hoping that Walt Jocketty and crew pull off at least one major trade before the deadline, and that trade must bring a right-handed big bat to Cincinnati.

If Cincy does not, Reds fans should know that Pittsburg will, and Pitt isn't going anywhere soon.