Durham in Distress: Is Duke Destined For Another Late-Season Disaster?

Three weeks ago, Duke was on top of the basketball world.

Fresh off their 41-point steamrolling of Maryland, the Blue Devils were 18-1, undefeated in ACC play, and sitting atop both polls.

But, as they say, all good things must come to an end.

Two of Duke's next three games were on the road against top-ten teams in Wake Forest and Clemson. After a heartbreaking loss to Wake, followed by a relatively easy home victory over Virginia, the Devils were humiliated by Clemson.

Duke's next game was against a Miami team with only four conference wins, but they were coming off of a 27-point beating of Wake Forest, and were playing very confidently.

What shouldn't have been a very challenging game almost turned into a rout, but a second-half comeback by the Devils ended up as an overtime victory.

Up next was a home date with arch-rival, and top-five ranked, North Carolina.

This was a game the Devils appeared to have control of at the half, but Ty Lawson and the Tar Heels dominated the second, and left Cameron with a 14-point victory.

In their most recent engagement, Duke travelled to Chestnut Hill to take on Boston College, a team that hadn't defeated the Devils in 24 years.

And despite having another halftime lead, the Devils fell short in the second, losing to BC by six.

The recent rough patch Duke has hit has caused many Duke fans, as well as critics, to wonder if Duke is going to falter in the late stretches this season, much as it has in the last two seasons. If we examine recent events, it becomes clear that there are several reasons why this is a distinct possibility.

Personnel Issues - Post

It has been well documented that Duke lacks a true post presence. Duke's biggest player, Brian Zoubek, has been hampered quite a bit in his career by injuries, and may never become the player that Coach K envisioned when he signed the big man from New Jersey.

Duke's other main low-post presence is Lance Thomas. Listed at 6'8" and 220 pounds, it is clear that Thomas is not a true low-post player. Both his size and skill set would indicate that he is more of a wing or high-post player.

Duke's other low-post option is freshman Miles Plumlee. Plumlee is listed at 6'10" and 230 pounds, and is more athletic and mobile than Zoubek, while possessing more size and strength than Thomas. Unfortunately, it does not appear that Plumlee will play a large role in the remainder of this season, as he is only averaging 5.9 minutes per game.

All of this means that the bulk of the offensive threat Duke is able to rely on in the paint comes in the form of 6'8" sophomore Kyle Singler, who is capable of playing in the post but seems to prefer playing on the perimeter. Singler has shown himself to be a reliable scorer on the blocks, but at 235 pounds, he is often overpowered by the opposition he faces, and is unable to secure good offensive positioning in the paint.

What all of this means is that Duke's opponents simply do not have to concern themselves overmuch with Duke's post players. There is no single player on Duke's roster who demands a double-team when they receive the ball in the paint, and as a result, opposing wings and guards are able to stay at home on their assignments, which helps to eliminate kicks to open shooters or back-door cuts.

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