US Open Golf Predictions 2012: Thursday Will Make or Break Tiger Wood's Chances

If Tiger Woods is going to win the US Open for the first time since 2008, it's going to be clear by the time he finishes his 18th hole on Thursday.

The odds-on favorite to be the last man standing on Sunday must ensure that he gets off to a good start if he has any chance of winning. As of late, Tiger hasn't really been a come-from-behind type of guy; his first-round play sets the tone for the tournament, and if he spirals out of control at the outset, the frustration has had a tendency to compound with each round.

In nine events this year, Tiger has registered two victories, the first of which came in the Arnold Palmer Invitational on March 25. He shot a 69 on Day 1—his second-best outing of the entire tournament—and finished at 13-under.

In his second win at the Memorial on June 3, the situation was similar. He put himself in good shape with a 70 on Thursday and a 69 on Friday, and after a hiccup with a 73 on Saturday, he came back with his strongest performance of the weekend to finish at nine-under.

Contrast that with his performance at the Masters on April 8, when he shot a 72 on Thursday and never managed to break that mark, finishing five-over and tied for 40th. He started off buried deep in the middle of the leaderboard and with the top so far out of sight, he was never able to truly compete.

Keeping victory in sight has been crucial in Tiger's wins this year. Maybe it's a mental thing—it's easy to let frustration take over when victory is so far out of sight—or maybe it's just about getting into a rhythm and sustaining it. Similarly, when he begins in a negative rhythm, he can't escape from that, either.

This time around especially, there will be no room for making a comeback on Day 2—not when he's playing alongside Phil Mickelson, who's had his game face on since groupings were announced. If Tiger is playing poorly and Mickelson is killing it, it's not going to make a Day 2 resurrection any easier to stage when come-from-behind victories aren't easy to come by in the first place. 

That first major since everything went haywire is going to be hard to finally seize, but Tiger has proven in 2012 that he is capable of maintaining the consistency and the composure to get the job done. All he has to do is get off to a good start.