If Timothy Bradley beats Manny Pacquiao and you happened to place a $100 bet on him, you would win $325. That sounds pretty nice!
Now if someone offered you the same odds—you bet $100 and if you win, you get $325—to bet on a flipped coin landing in an upright position, would you take that bet?
Of course not. And any betting man would be wise not to place any money on Timothy Bradley in Saturday night's fight versus Pacquiao.
While the chance of getting better than 3-to-1 odds is enticing, Bradley's chances of actually succeeding against Pacquiao are much slimmer.
There is no doubt that Bradley has the sculpted body befitting an elite boxer, and it is a testament to his hard work and dedication. However, all his extra work in the gym and the sacrifices he has made have resulted in just one early stoppage in the seven fights since he won the Junior Welterweight title in an upset versus Junior Witter in 2008.
That stoppage came in the eighth round of a bout last year against an aging and over-the-hill Joel Casamayor last November: Not exactly the most impressive TKO to attach to a boxer's resume, is it?
The fighter that Bradley will face will again be significantly older, as Pacquiao is 33 to Bradley's 28, but that is where the comparisons to Casamayor end.
Casamayor was clearly on the downside of his career when he faced Bradley, having his last victory over a fighter of any substance in 2008 when he TKO'd Michael Katsidis.
Pacquiao, on the other hand, has faced a who's who of fighters since late 2007, and in the process has extended his win streak to 15 fights.
Pacquiao has also fought at above 140 (Bradley's fighting weight) in six out of the last seven bouts, and has managed two early stoppages against two naturally larger opponents.
On June 9, Pacquiao will have the advantage of facing a man who has a size disadvantage. And the last time Pacquiao faced a fighter at 140 pounds, he knocked out Ricky Hatton and sent him into retirement with one of the most brutal knockouts of the last few years.
One could easily argue that Hatton was, at the time, a more formidable opponent than Bradley presents this weekend.
Hatton was 45-1 with his sole defeat being a 10th round TKO against a much more gifted fighter in Floyd Mayweather. Yet Hatton had ended six of his last nine victories early before stepping into the ring with Pacquiao, and there seemed to be no reason to believe that the 30-year-old would not be back to fight again after facing Pacquiao.
Then one punch from Pacman not only ended his fight, but also Hatton's career.
Bradley would be wise to review this short fight and compare it to the the early rounds of his match with Kendall Holt, one in which Holt caught Bradley clean with a punch that knocked him down and put his undefeated record in serious danger.
With Bradley's pressuring, head-first style, he could find himself on the wrong end of a left hand to the head from Pacquiao that will have more serious repercussions than any punch Bradley has ever taken before.
Pacquiao may be older, but he still maintains a speed and power advantage over Bradley that will be too much for Desert Storm to overcome with determination alone.
You can't even say Bradley has a true "puncher's chance," as he has only managed 12 KO's ( a 41 percent KO percentage) in his 28 fights. Pacquiao has been maligned for not finishing opponents early in his most recent fights, yet he still boasts a KO percentage of 64 percent.
Saturday, June 9 represents the biggest stage that Bradley has ever fought on. As a smaller man with limited power facing an all-time great in Pacquiao, the smart money will be on Pacquiao's first early stoppage since TKO'ing Miguel Cotto in 2009.
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