I really don't like this card for wagering. I have mulled this over and I honestly cannot see a dog winning.
LAUZON -174 VS. STEPHENS
Lauzon has more skills on the ground and is a pressure stand-up attacker who leads with his jab and forces flat feet for right crosses and eventually take downs. From the ground, he is well skilled and very effective, winning 75 percent of his fights via submission.
Stephens is a dangerous and powerful striker who is also very explosive. He has a mean fighting streak and loves to mix it up. He has displayed decent ground survival against some good ground fighters, but he mainly survived due to his striking and tenancy.
Bottom Line: Stephens took this on short notice and is a striker first. He was training/preparing lauzon's original opponent franca before he got injured. I doubt he is in shape for a ground fighter, and I think Lauzon's tactical approach should allow him to sweat out the early stand-up and get a takedown for a second-round submission.
MAC DANZIG -120 VS. JOSH NEER
Danzig: well rounded fighter with just as much experience as Neer. He has great submissions and technique and his stand is polished.
Danzig does struggle with strong wrestlers, but Neer's wrestling is a little aggressive and fluid. Danzig's guard may to able to frustrate Neer and maybe, and that's a stretch maybe catch a submission.
Danzig trains with Xtreme Couture and is ready, great partners and in great shape. This is a major difference when Couture is planning and cornering your fight.
Neer: fan favorite because he always brings it. He is well-rounded as well and is really tough. He does everything well and tends to break his opponents will with constant pressure.
Neer's stand up is slightly better and I think he will try to use this to his advantage. Neer is also the bigger and stronger of the two as well.
Bottom Line: danzig will be in Superior shape and better prepared. I think his patience and discipline will be the factors to a tough SD. Also, Neer has had a recent run in with the the police. He led them on a high-speed chase while drunk.
He has admitted to some serious personal problems and that his camp was a little distracted. I have to believe this may weigh in late into the rounds and be a negative factor against Neer.
G. TIBIA(-106) VS. R.CLEMENTI
Tibia: The biggest 155er in the UFC and maybe all of MMA. He is very skilled on the ground with great BJJ, but his inability to translate that to MMA is my biggest concern.
On his feet he is good, strong and accurate. he has decent defences and a strong top mount. biggest fault, lack of preparation and conditioning. he is easily broken.
Clementi: great veteran. Has all the skills to win any time anywhere. He improves every fight and has the rare ability to hang around and frustrate opponents. Mainly depends on his BJJ for submissions.
His BJJ is a perfect for MMA. Its a little more loose and slick, if Tibia every learned this he would be unstoppable. Rich has great ring presence as well, there is nothing that Tibia can do that Rich hasn't seen before.
Bottom line: looks like I would favour Rich, but i think its Tibia's time to shine. he loses tonight he gone. i have to believe his conditioning will be the best it has ever been and i have to believe he will be in top position most of the fight. rich can win this fight but size will be the difference.
C.VELASQUEZ -600 VS D.STOJNIC
no need to get into this one at that price. CV is a solid wrestler who is being babied and protected thus far. he is still a little green but has all the ground tools to contend one day. his hands are improving but most importantly he can take down anyone and he's tough. his opponent is huge. a very big stocky fighter, has decent ground skills and his stand-up is samba based. his movement is minimal and i think he gets put down at will. CV should win with ease, but you just never know.
K.PELLEGRINO -210 VS. R.EMERSON
KP: excellent, excellent mat fighter. he is the perfect combo of wrestler and bjj. he has tremendous credentials and will destroy Emerson on the mat. KP is also a very tough fighter who has never been KOed and has improved his hands. he has fought good competition and usually has the lead before mental and cardio mistakes take over, should be noted that the lost to Joe Stevenson was a result of a broken hand suffered in the 1st. he did manage to finish.
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