OJ Mayo: An Honest Assessment

The USC Trojans are unranked this season, meaning they have had minimal national exposure. The front pages of ESPN and Yahoo! do not even include results of USC Trojans basketball games.

Did you know USC beat Cal last night? Probably not, unless you specifically follow the Trojans. As a result, most people have no idea how OJ Mayo’s game is translating at the collegiate level.

Yet, members of the media are quick to form an opinion on OJ, because he is another polarizing figure, a la KB24. Most of the commentaries this season are negative, because the Trojans are indeed unranked, and OJ Mayo is averaging more turnovers than assists. They have an image in their heads of a kid with a troubled past, who is selfish, who wants to be at the center of attention, and who was accused of assaulting a referee.

At best, these are fragments of the person of OJ as a whole, and because of the limited exposure of the Trojans this season, for many journalists they unfortunately make up the entirety of his persona.

What about an honest look at OJ Mayo’s game?

OJ Mayo is not the most naturally talented freshman in the nation. Exhibit A, we have Michael Beasley, who has taken what Kevin Durant in 2007 did over Carmelo Anthony in 2003, to new heights. The most dynamic scorer from the 2-guard position is Eric Gordon, who scores so easily and whose stroke is so pure, he has us rubbing our eyes wondering if Mitch Richmond stepped back in time and donned a Hoosiers jersey. OJ Mayo does not have the ceiling of a Lebron James or a Tracy McGrady, because he is 6-5. His athleticism is great, but not world class.

But OJ Mayo is, above and beyond, the best NBA-ready player in the world who isn’t currently in the NBA. There is a reason for this: he is 2 years older than the average freshman and his game is that much more developed. He has an NBA-ready body and puts on NBA-level moves on the court. Collegiate referees are clearly outclassed by OJ Mayo, because they haven’t seen a guard with that much skill step onto the hardwood in a long time. Two quick examples:

On a fast break against Arizona, OJ executed a quick step-through that left his defender dazzled and confused. It was an NBA-level move that Dwayne Wade loves doing, but the referee scratched his head and called a travel.

On a ball screen against Washington State, OJ split the defenders and was tripped. The referee once again scratched his head and didn’t blow the whistle. At that moment, it was clear to me that this is an NBA player stuck playing college ball.

My point is, even though Beasley, Gordon, Rose, Harden, and Bayless may be more talented and could easily end up better basketball players, they still look like college players right now. Except for Beasley, they still play like teenagers, and misread defenders and defenses. They get lost on defense and could stand to put on 15 to 20 pounds. They wouldn’t scratch the rotation on any NBA team.

OJ Mayo, on the other hand, has already mentally understood the game at an NBA level. This morning on the Dan Patrick Show, Tim Floyd called him the best player he has ever coached, collegiate or NBA—a list that includes a collegiate Tim Hardaway and rookie Jamal Crawford. OJ Mayo displays NBA-level reactions on the court, wins every loose ball, and plays with the poise of a grizzled veteran.

Unfortunately, OJ Mayo has wasted a year of his crucial development playing in a system with teammates and opponents that have nothing to offer him in terms of improving his game. There is a reason he averages more turnovers than assists—his freshman teammates are not ready to run the offense.

This can be blamed on the revenue-greedy NCAA, who, upon seeing the NBA rightfully draft away talented 18 year old adults, insisted on a no-freshman in the draft rule. OJ Mayo, who is old enough to be a junior, has clearly gotten the short end of the stick here. He should have spent this year honing his skill against much higher competition, in the pros.

Finally, here is a brief assessment of OJ Mayo as a player. He is at least a rotation player and will never dominate on the level of a Lebron or Kobe. He has a perfect stroke and plays elite-level one-on-one defense. He is done physically maturing. He plays with poise down the stretch and is a natural leader. He is far from the most talented player—he has trouble getting to the rim even in college—but he is a very hard worker.

If Beasley, Gordon, and Rose continue to develop, they may easily surpass OJ Mayo. Scouts who picture him as similar to Ben Gordon are way off, because OJ handles the ball much better and is a good four inches taller. He is a much better defender - probably the best perimeter defender at his level. Also, Ben Gordon's strength is his shooting, but Gordon's shot release is unfundamentally - too high - and as a result he is inconsistent (I am sure that any NBA watcher realizes that).

OJ's jump shot is actually better. In my estimation, he is a 6-5 Chauncey Billups—only with superior form on his jump shot (fast forward to the 1 minute mark if you want to see what picture perfect form looks like).

It is clear that OJ Mayo, 20-years-old already, should be playing in the NBA this year. He faces a much less steep learning curve than his more talented, but less developed, freshman colleagues.