Each week, we're going to take a look at a few teams around The Association that we think deserve extra consideration. We will not be giving picks; however, we believe this information can help the prudent bettor looking for that extra bit of information to help them make a more informed decision on upcoming games. You can comment and subscribe to our blog here. For previous articles, please visit our archive.
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New Jersey Nets
The New Jersey Nets seem to have a bipolar disorder.
Tied for the last spot in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, the Nets certainly have a lot to play for down the stretch. However, looking at the team's last dozen games, the Nets had lost eight of nine games before winning their last three. Of those eight loses, only two were by five points or less, while two of the others were by twenty points of more.
In a 32-point loss to the Celtics, Vince Carter and Devin Harris were benched for the entirety of the second half, a coaching move basically unheard of in today's NBA, and obviously something you never want to see if you're taking the points. However, the Nets have now won three in a row, Vince Carter has played through nagging injuries all season, they are in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race, and boast a 27-23 record against the spread, ninth in the NBA.
So what is the enterprising sports bettor to make of all of this?
Our advice is simple—proceed with caution.
The Nets have performed well against the spread to this point, but that's mostly because the public vastly underrated Devin Harris and Brook Lopez heading into the season. They are both now known commodities. However, Vince Carter is still somewhat overlooked by the public (due largely to his missing the All-Star Game for the first time in nearly a decade), as he continues to play at a very high level. He has played 75 games or more for three seasons in a row—the "injury prone" tag is outdated.
All said, we think the Nets are still a little better than the public perceives them to be. Additionally, the Nets are one of the few teams to perform better on the road (13-12) than at home (10-15), making for an interesting dynamic in the sports betting world.
Conventional wisdom is that the home team is given a few points in the spread, and it's hard to say how much New Jersey's home/away differential is affecting the lines. Recently, on the road to face the terrible Washington Wizards, the game opened as a Pick 'Em before moving to Nets minus-1.
The Nets won by almost 30 points.
Is that really the kind of spread a playoff contender, who plays better on the road, should be getting playing at Washington, the worst team in the league?
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